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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.23EOD only
Max Pain
$32.40
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.25
3.9% from close
Price Gap
+0.17
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
45
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.11
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
CMG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CMG 44d pre-earnings with 100% beat rate; heavy put flow suggests bearish bias; spot near $32.8.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.0% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Watch put accumulation at $35-$40 strikes and resistance at $35.
📉Unusual put flow: 4.6x vol/OI at $39.2 put.
💰Net premium -$14.6M; put/call vol ratio 1.2.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,944 (23.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (44 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (3d): ±$0.99 (3.0%)
  • 2026-06-26 (11d): ±$1.68 (5.1%)
  • 2026-07-02 (17d): ±$2.10 (6.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping (3d:3.0%, 11d:5.1%, 17d:6.4%); skew elevated on puts.

Crush estimate: Earnings 44d away; no immediate crush.

Skew: Deep OTM puts IV 96-259% indicates tail risk.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; beat rate 100% historically.

Directional bias: Bullish based on beat history.

Key Levels

1$25.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $31.73/$33.72
3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-18); $31 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Large put buying 2026-06-18 $40 (5136 vol, 3x OI).

Aggressive bearish positioning or downside hedging.

Deep OTM put $48 (355 vol, 2.4x OI) with 259% IV.

Tail risk premium bought; possible large move expectation.

Strategies

Call Calendar
Sell 2026-06-26 $33.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $33.00 call
Debit: $0.64-$0.78
Max loss: $0.78
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Adjust if spot breaks below 32.5 invalidation; roll strikes if vol spikes.
Upward sloping term structure and 100% beat rate support upside; neutralizes time decay near-term while capturing long-vol.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later call to profit from forward volatility skew and earnings optimism.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $34.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $33.00 call
Debit: $0.80-$0.97
Max loss: $0.97
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor spot near 32.5; if breached, consider early exit.
Similar to calendar but with higher credit; resistance at $35 caps upside but beat rate provides long-term bullish edge.
Outperforms: Sell front-month call, buy back-month call at higher strike to benefit from time decay and vol term structure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $32.00/$30.00 put wing and $34.00/$35.00 call wing
Credit: $0.51-$0.62
Max loss: $1.38
Max gain: $0.62
BE: 31.38 / 34.62
Trigger: Close if spot approaches max pain levels; roll wings if volatility spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (88%).
Range-bound between support $32 and resistance $35; steep term structure yields high theta but put flow risk and low liquidity.
Outperforms: Collect premium from range-bound expectation; profit from time decay if spot stays within wings.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Downside risk from heavy put accumulation above spot.
!Stock below gamma flip level of $25; potential acceleration.
!Earnings far off; theta decay and vol contraction likely.

What to Watch

?Max pain $32 (6/18) and $31 (6/26).
?Resistance $34.83-$35; support $32.5-$32.4.
?Unusual put flow continuation into next week.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.