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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $31.69EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.80
2.5% from close
Price Gap
-0.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
CMG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CMG reports 7/29. High beat rate, 35d out. IV term normal; crush expected.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: 100% beat rate; call wall $35-$42; put floor $25-$30; max pain $32.
📈Unusual call activity: 10x vol/OI on Aug $40 Call.
⚖️Put OI ratio 1.31 but vol ratio 0.58; mixed.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,936 (21.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (35 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$0.80 (2.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (8d): ±$1.41 (4.5%)
  • 2026-07-10 (16d): ±$2.05 (6.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: 2d 2.5%, 8d 4.5%, 16d 6.5%; upward slope normal.

Crush estimate: ~50% post-event IV crush.

Skew: Puts relatively cheaper; skew neutral.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; beat rate 100%.

Directional bias: Neutral; no clear bias.

Key Levels

1$25.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $30.90/$32.49; 1w $30.28/$33.11
3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02); $31 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual $40 Call buy: 1,049 vol vs 105 OI.

Bullish bet on upside >$40 by Aug 21.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $30.00/$28.00 put wing and $34.00/$35.00 call wing
Credit: $0.79-$0.97
Max loss: $1.03
Max gain: $0.97
BE: 29.03 / 34.97
Trigger: Manage if spot approaches wings; close at 50% max gain or near expiration. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Neutral bias and high beat rate favor range-bound trade; IV crush benefits short premium with defined risk.
Outperforms: Sells put spread and call spread to profit from low volatility and range-bound price action.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-31 $30.00 put + sell $34.00 call
Credit: $2.03-$2.49
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.49
BE: 27.51 / 36.49
Trigger: Set stop loss if spot moves beyond strike range; close at 50% max gain or before earnings if IV drops. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Neutral bias and high beat rate suggest limited move; IV crush reduces premium post-event, but unlimited risk requires caution.
Outperforms: Sells out-of-the-money put and call to collect premium, betting on limited price movement.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings 35d away; long theta decay.
!Put OI 21% below spot supports $30.
!Call wall $35-$42 caps upside.
!IV crush post-earnings could be large.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction at $30 support & $33.75 resistance.
?OI shifts near max pain $32.
?Unusual flow continuation.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.