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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.49EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.29
4.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.99
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.05
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
CMG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

CMG earnings setup with 100% beat rate, heavy call buying, and VIX 16. Confidence 6.5/10.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Near-term call buying and max pain pinning at $32 suggest upside bias, but 41 days out limits entry.
📈100% beat rate over 5 quarters.
🔥Heavy call buying in 6/26 expiry.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,936 (23.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (41 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$1.29 (4.0%)
  • 2026-07-02 (14d): ±$1.78 (5.5%)
  • 2026-07-10 (22d): ±$2.37 (7.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 8d ±4%, 14d ±5.5%, 22d ±7.3%.

Crush estimate: Moderate post-earnings crush expected.

Skew: Put/call OI ratio 1.05, but heavy call volume suggests mixed demand.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historically beats often result in positive moves.

Directional bias: Bullish

Key Levels

1$25.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $31.20/$33.79
3Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-18); $32 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume on 6/26 $34.50 (vol/OI 6.8), $32.50 (3.5), $34 (2.1).

Bullish sentiment for next week; traders buying upside.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-10 $31.00/$30.00 put wing and $33.00/$34.00 call wing
Credit: $0.54-$0.67
Max loss: $0.33
Max gain: $0.67
BE: 30.33 / 33.67
Trigger: Exit if spot breaks $31 or $33; roll wings to adjust. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (53%).
Defined risk at max pain pinning near $32; upward sloping term structure supports range-bound thesis.
Outperforms: Sell 31/30 put spread and 33/34 call spread for credit, betting on low volatility.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-24 $30.00 put + sell $34.00 call
Credit: $1.37-$1.68
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.68
BE: 28.32 / 35.68
Elevated IV and heavy call buying provide inflated premiums; short wings at support/resistance.
Outperforms: Sell rich pre-earnings premium via short strangle, expecting spot to stay within wide range.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush post-earnings could hurt long options.
!Gap risk with 41 days to event.
!Max pain at $32 may pin spot.

What to Watch

?Price action around $32 (max pain)
?Resistance at $35 (call OI wall)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.