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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.28EOD only

Max Pain

$31.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.68

2.1% from close

Price Gap

-0.78

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.30

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

CMG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mixed signals: dealer gamma pinning supports near $32.8, but spot 5.8% above max pain ($32) and resistance at $35 limit upside. Favor range-bound drift with slight bullish bias given positive GEX, but cautious on resistance and VIX 18.4.

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

Base 5 reduced by -1 for GEX/flow contradiction and -1 for spot >5% from MP, offset by +1 for GEX positive (pinning) and +0.5 for VIX 18.4, net 4.5.

Supports: Positive GEX (+$21.4M); DEX long +20M shares; support at 32.5, 31.57, 31.5.
Conflicts: Spot above MP; resistance at $35, $35.11; mixed flow; VIX above 18.

🛡️Dealer gamma pinning: +$21.4M GEX, key support $32.82.

⚠️Spot 5.8% above MP ($32) creates downward tension.

📊Range-bound with guardrails: $32.82–$33.86 1w.

📈Resistance at $35 if upside momentum builds.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV at normal levels; VIX 18.4 moderate, aligning with normal volatility.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$21.4M, dealer long gamma; key pin at $32 (max pain) and $32.82/$33.86 guardrails.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow, net premium moderate; no strong directional signal.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~5.8% above max pain ($32), pinning pressure downward but dealer gamma dampens.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Normal vol, gamma pinning, and defined ranges for 1-2 weeks suggest multi-week range-bound with potential grind higher if resistance breaks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$32.82$33.86

Pinning support $32.82, implied range $32.82-$33.86, slight upside bias.

Next 2 weeks

$31.57$35.11

Wider range $31.57-$35.11, potential to test resistance if upside continues.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02); $31 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $32.82/$33.86

Support: $32.50 · $31.57 · $31.50

Resistance: $35.00 · $35.11

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,929 (25.0% below spot)

Structural: Structural support $32 (max pain) and $31.5; resistance $35 and $35.11. EM guardrails 1w: $32.82 low, $33.86 high. Gamma flip ~$25 far below.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+21.4M

DEX: +20.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,929 (25.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma (+$21.4M) and long delta (+20M shares). Gamma flip at ~$25, far below spot, indicating structural support for upside within range.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV near VIX 18.4 given normal vol; no extreme premium or discount.

Term structure: Flat to slightly backwardated; no event kinks; 1w/2w vols reflect normal range.

Skew: Slightly elevated put skew (consistent with spot above MP); no actionable vol opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative premium (-$2.39M) with put/call OI ratio 1.29, indicating bearish positioning despite higher call volume.

Directional prints: 76.6 put 32.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — High vol/OI (2.8) deep OTM put; suggests bearish buying or hedging. Preferred read: bearish. 40.9 put 31.6 OTM 2026-12-18 — Elevated vol/OI (2.3) long-dated put; likely bearish positioning or tail hedge. Preferred read: bearish.

Unusual: 76.6 put 32.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Highest vol/OI (2.8) and IV (76.6) among prints; unusual for deep OTM weekly put. 40.9 put 31.6 OTM 2026-12-18 — Large volume on long-dated put with moderate IV; stands out against typical flow. 36.7 call 36 OTM 2026-07-02 — Notable call volume (421) on OTM strike; could be bearish sold call or bullish buy.

Risks & Catalysts

!Breakdown below $32.82 support could accelerate to $31.5.

!VIX spike above 20 would increase vol and disrupt pinning.

!Resistance at $35 fails to break, leading to mean reversion.

!Unexpected macro event broadens range beyond $31.57-$35.11.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $33.00/$32.00 put spread Why now: Positive GEX and dealer gamma near 32.8 support bullish-neutral drift; put credit spread capitalizes on this.	Sharp breakdown below 32.5 causes max loss; VIX spike could widen spreads. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Wide spread (54%).

Top Plays

Bullish Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $33.00/$32.00 put spread

Sell $33/$32 put spread (Jul 31) to collect credit; support near $32.8.

Why this play: Positive GEX and dealer gamma near $32.8 support range-bound drift; elevated IV favors premium harvest.

Credit: $0.52-$0.64

Max loss: $0.36

BE: $32.36

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $32.5; hold to expiry if above $33. Manage at 50% max gain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Wide spread (54%).

Traders seeking bullish-neutral exposure with defined risk, short time frame.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $32.82 (1w low) with positive GEX and elevated IV; enter bull put spread. → Sell 2026-07-31 $33/$32 put credit spread at $0.52-$0.64 credit.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks below $32.5 (invalidation level). → Exit spread immediately to cap loss.

EXITSpread reaches 50% max gain ($0.32 credit). → Book profit and close position.

Tactical Summary

CMG pinned near $32.8 with positive GEX; max pain $32, resistance $35. Range-bound drift likely. Recommended: sell $33/$32 put spread for premium harvest, stop below $32.5. Manage to 50% gain.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.