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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.23EOD only

Max Pain

$32.40

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.25

3.9% from close

Price Gap

+0.17

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.11

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

CMG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral to slightly bearish near term. Positive gamma pinning supports the range, but spot 7.4% above max pain risks reversion. High vol and mixed flow add uncertainty.

Confidence:

5 / 10

Base 5, adjusted by GEX/flow contradict (-1), pinning (+1), spot distance (-1), VIX (+1). Net 5.

Supports: Positive GEX $1.6M pinning near max pain; elevated VIX 18; strong dealer delta +24.5M shares.
Conflicts: GEX and flow signals disagree; spot significantly above max pain $30.

📌Positive gamma pins near $30-32; dealers buy dips/sell rips.

⚠️Spot 7.4% above max pain; reversion risk to $30.

📈VIX 18 supports premium selling opportunities.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High; IV elevated relative to typical range due to expiration uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning; positive GEX $1.6M supports mean-reverting price action near $30-32.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed; net premium unclear, put/call OI suggests balanced positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above; spot trading above max pain $30, indicating bullish bias but potential pullback.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expiration week dynamics with high vol and pinning justify event-specific horizon.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$30.98$33.48

Range $30.98-$33.48; gamma pinning supports low; resistance at $33.48.

Next 2 weeks

$30.28$34.18

Range $30.28-$34.18; reversion toward max pain $30-31 likely.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $30 (2026-06-12); $32 (2026-06-18); $31 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 1w $30.98/$33.48

Support: $30.28 · $30.00

Resistance: $34.18 · $35.00

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 144,010 (22.4% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $30 (6/12), $32 (6/18), $31 (6/26); 1w EM $30.98/$33.48; support $30.28-30; resistance $34.18-35; gamma flip ~$25.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.6M

DEX: +24.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 144,010 (22.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.6M; DEX +24.5M shares; gamma flip ~$25 based on put OI concentration 144,010 (22.4% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 18, indicating elevated option premium.

Term structure: Backwardated as near-term expiration approaches.

Skew: Call skew elevated; opportunity to sell call spreads for premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$12.6M net premium, bearish bias despite higher call volume; put/call OI ratio 1.11 confirms put dominance.

Directional prints: 37.1 call 33 OTM 2026-07-10 — Volume 4685 vs OI 193 (24.3x); unusually aggressive call buying, likely bullish positioning, opening activity. 118.4 put 39.2 ITM 2026-06-18 — Volume 2644 vs OI 576 (4.6x); high IV, bearish put buying on short-dated strike, defensive or directional.

Unusual: 37.1 call 33 OTM 2026-07-10 — 24.3x vol/OI ratio, massive relative volume; likely large opening call buyer. 118.4 put 39.2 ITM 2026-06-18 — High IV (118.4%) and 4.6x vol/OI; notable put action near potential support/resistance. 121.1 put 40 ITM 2026-06-18 — Largest put volume (5136) and OI (1708), 3.0x vol/OI; heavy put activity at $40 strike.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot reversion to max pain $30 could cause sharp decline.

!GEX/flow contradiction may lead to sudden volatility.

!High vol amplifies moves, increasing risk for directional plays.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $30.00/$29.00 put wing and $33.00/$34.00 call wing Why now: High IV, max pain at 30 support, 33 resistance from unusual flow	Upside break above 33 from bullish flow or below 29 from earnings
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $32.00/$33.00 call spread Why now: Negative net premium flow and put dominance suggest bearish sentiment; sell call spread to collect premium	Upside move past 32 could lead to loss
Short strangle	Conditional	Sell 2026-07-10 $30.00 put + sell $33.00 call Why now: Stock expected to stay between 30 and 33; high IV offers attractive premium	Unlimited risk if stock moves significantly outside range, especially around earnings

Top Plays

Bearish Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $32.00/$33.00 call spread

Sell 32/33 call spread to profit from limited upside or decline.

Why this play: Aligns with bearish net flow and put dominance; high IV offers rich premium.

Credit: $0.44-$0.54

Max loss: $0.46

BE: $32.54

Mgmt: Close if spot breaches $34.18 invalidation; take profit at 50% max gain.

Traders expecting CMG to stay below $32 or decline with bearish bias.

Neutral Iron Condor

Sell 2026-07-10 $30.00/$29.00 put wing and $33.00/$34.00 call wing

Sell 30/29 puts and 33/34 calls to profit from spot staying between 30 and 33.

Why this play: Captures high IV with range-bound expectation; max pain at 30 and resistance at 33.

Credit: $0.38-$0.46

Max loss: $0.54

BE: 29.54 / 33.46

Mgmt: Adjust wings if volatility shifts; close early on IV crush.

Traders expecting sideways movement around max pain with low directional conviction.

Short Strangle

Sell 2026-07-10 $30.00 put + sell $33.00 call

Sell 30 put and 33 call to collect premium from low volatility expectation.

Why this play: High IV offers attractive premium but unlimited risk; less suitable given slight bearish bias.

Credit: $1.28-$1.57

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: 28.43 / 34.57

Mgmt: Monitor delta and gamma; roll wings as spot approaches; set stop-loss on breach.

Experienced traders with high tail risk tolerance and neutral view.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot trades between 32.50 and 33.00 → THEN sell 2026-07-10 32/33 call spread at limit 0.44-0.54 (ccs1)

IFIF spot stays between 30.28 and 33.00 → THEN sell 2026-07-10 30/29 put and 33/34 call iron condor at limit 0.38-0.46 (ic1)

IFIF IV > 50th percentile and spot between 30.28 and 33.00 → THEN sell 2026-07-10 30 put and 33 call strangle at limit 1.28-1.57 (ss1)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaches 34.18 or spread reaches 50% max gain (0.27) → THEN close ccs1 call credit spread

EXITIF spot touches 29.50 or 33.50 → THEN adjust ic1 iron condor wings

EXITIF spot touches 29.00 or 34.00 → THEN close ss1 short strangle

Tactical Summary

Neutral to slightly bearish near term. Spot 7.4% above max pain ($30) risks reversion. Key support 30.28, resistance 34.18. Prefer bearish call credit spread (sell 32/33 call) targeting premium decay. Iron condor or short strangle for neutral bias. High IV supports selling; manage risk on breaches.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.