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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $30.54EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.16
3.8% from close
Price Gap
+0.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.26
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
CMG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias due to dealer short gamma ($-23.9M), bearish flow, and spot below max pain ($32). Broad tech weakness (QQQ -3.29%) adds downside pressure, but normal vol suggests orderly decline. Confidence base 8.0 accepted; key risk is dealer long delta (+20.5M shares) providing support near $30.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow alignment +0.5 spot near MP +0.5 VIX moderate.
Supports: Dealer short gamma, bearish flow, spot below MP, tech selloff.
Conflicts: Normal vol, positive DEX (long delta) may dampen drops.
📉Negative gamma amplifies downside moves.
🐻Bearish flow indicates institutional hedging.
📍Spot below max pain suggests pin to lower strikes.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV normal vs history; VIX 19.5 not elevated, allowing gradual moves.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Net dealer gamma -$23.9M (short gamma) amplifies trends; gamma flip ~$25 far below.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Net bearish premium; put OI 19.2% below spot indicates protective buying.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below max pain $32, near 2d support $30; bearish pin.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Structural bearish flow/dealer positioning plus broad tech weakness suggests sustained selling over weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$30.00$31.91
Range bound but biased lower; test $30 support.
Next 1 week
$29.44$32.47
Potential decline to $29.44 if selling continues.
Next 2 weeks
$28.96$32.94
Bearish drift toward $28.96 support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02); $31 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $30.00/$31.91; 1w $29.44/$32.47
Support: $30.00 · $28.96
Resistance: $31.50 · $32.94
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,939 (19.2% below spot)
Structural: Support $30 (2d), $28.96 (2w); resistance $31.5 (2d), $32.94 (2w); gamma flip ~$25.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-23.9M

DEX: +20.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,939 (19.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$23.9M, DEX +20.5M shares; gamma flip at $25 based on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Tick IV near VIX levels; not cheap/rich, normal backdrop.

Term structure: Contango without event kinks; no near-term expiry skew.

Skew: Put skew elevated from bearish flow; no actionable opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Bearish net premium (put/call vol ratio 2.32)

Directional prints: 39.1 put 29.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 3.1x OI, short-dated. Likely aggressive put buying (bearish) vs. limited short put selling. 58 put 40 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol 1.5x OI, high IV. Possible hedging or bearish positioning. Premium indicates conviction. 44.1 put 30 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol 2x OI, moderate. Adds to put skew, likely bearish speculative activity.

Unusual: 42.5 call 35 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol 3.2x OI on deep OTM call. Unusual; possibly a cheap lottery buy or covered call write. put 60.4 ITM 2026-12-18 — Vol 1.7x OI, deep ITM put; IV missing. Large bearish position or protective put. 44.8 put 27.5 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol 1.7x OI, low strike. Unusual bearish bet against further downside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Unexpected bullish catalyst
!Dealer delta hedging on short puts
!Market reversal or IV contraction
!Spot bounce from $30 support

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $30.00/$28.00 put spread
Why now: Dealer short gamma, bearish flow, spot below max pain
Rally after earnings; time decay
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-31 $30.00 put
Why now: Bearish flow and dealer gamma, convexity if decline continues
Theta decay if spot stays flat
Bearish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $30.00 put / sell 2026-07-31 $33.00 call
Why now: Upside premium collection while maintaining bearish delta
Unlimited upside risk if spot rallies

Top Plays

#1
Bear put spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $30.00/$28.00 put spread
Buy $30/$28 put spread for bearish exposure with capped loss.
Why this play: Defined risk, low cost, captures bearish move through earnings.
Debit: $0.63-$0.78
Max loss: $0.78
BE: $29.22
Mgmt: Exit at 50% profit or if stock rises above $31.5.
Traders seeking defined risk bearish play.
#2
Long put
Buy 2026-07-31 $30.00 put
Buy $30 put to profit from downside acceleration.
Why this play: Higher convexity, unlimited profit potential on sharp decline.
Debit: $1.33-$1.62
Max loss: $1.62
BE: $28.38
Mgmt: Take profits on IV pop; stop loss at $1.00 premium.
Aggressive traders expecting significant drop.
#3
Bearish risk reversal
Buy 2026-07-31 $30.00 put / sell 2026-07-31 $33.00 call
Buy $30 put, sell $33 call for bearish delta with credit.
Why this play: Premium credit reduces cost but carries unlimited upside risk.
Debit: $0.24-$0.30
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: $33.00
Mgmt: Monitor delta; close near short call strike.
Experienced traders tolerant of upside risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf CMG spot breaks below $30 support with bearish momentum → Enter bear put spread: buy 2026-07-31 $30.00/$28.00 put spread at 0.63-0.78
IFIf spot drops below $30 with acceleration and high volume → Enter long put: buy 2026-07-31 $30.00 put at 1.33-1.62
IFIf spot stays below resistance $31.5 and shows no reversal → Enter bearish risk reversal: buy 2026-07-31 $30.00 put / sell $33.00 call for credit
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot approaches $28.96 support with weakening downside → Take partial profit on bear put spread; reduce risk
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot rises above $31.5 resistance → Exit all bearish positions (bear put spread, long put, risk reversal)

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias via dealer short gamma, bearish flow, spot below max pain ($32). Key levels: support $30 (2d), $28.96 (2w); resistance $31.5 (2d), $32.94 (2w). Top play: bear put spread (defined risk). Exit if spot > $31.5. Normal vol suggests orderly decline.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.