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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.73EOD only
Max Pain
$32.40
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.00
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-0.33
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
60
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.08
Balanced positioning
Consensus
4.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
CMG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias due to negative dealer gamma and high vol near max pain. Spot at $32 support vulnerable. Mixed flow and market weakness reinforce downside risk. Breakdown below $31.77 likely accelerates selling.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5 regime +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 spot near MP +1 VIX 16 = 9.0
Supports: Negative gamma (-$9.4M GEX), spot at max pain $32, high vol, VIX 16
Conflicts: Mixed flow (no clear direction), broad market negative (SPY -0.6%)
📉Negative gamma (-$9.4M) accelerates moves; downside bias on break of support.
📌Max pain pin at $32 may hold near expiry (Jun 18/26).
📊High IV premium rich vs VIX; potential post-expiry contraction.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated at high end of range, consistent with VIX 16 and options activity.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Gamma negative (-$9.4M GEX) with trending classification; flip at ~$25, far below, amplifying downside.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium; put/call ratios not clearly directional.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at max pain $32 (0.0% distance), pinning expected near expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expirations (Jun 18/26) drive pin action and gamma dynamics; high vol likely resolves post-expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$31.77$33.46
EM guardrails $31.77-$33.46; max pain pin at $32 limits move.
Next 1 week
$31.12$34.11
Negative gamma favors downside; support at $31.12 (1w EM low) is key.
Next 2 weeks
$30.74$34.49
Broader support $30.74; dealer positioning suggests continued pressure.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-18); $32 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $31.77/$33.46; 1w $31.12/$34.11
Support: $32.50 · $32.40 · $30.74
Resistance: $34.49
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,943 (23.3% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $32 (Jun 18/26), $31 (Jul 2). Support $32.5, $32.4, $30.74. Resistance $34.49. EM guardrails: 2d $31.77/$33.46, 1w $31.12/$34.11.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-9.4M

DEX: +23.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,943 (23.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$9.4M (negative), DEX +23.6M (long delta), gamma flip ~$25 from put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV elevated vs VIX 16; rich for premium sellers, especially puts due to negative gamma.

Term structure: Normal contango; kinks near Jun 18 and Jun 26 expiries; near-dated vols highest.

Skew: Put skew elevated; opportunity to sell put spreads above resistance $34.49 or buy put spreads on break below $31.77.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium -$6.94M indicates net put selling (bullish); P/C vol ratio 0.84 (more calls by volume) and OI ratio 1.07 (more puts outstanding)

Directional prints: 111.7 put 37.2 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1354 vs OI 403 (3.4x); aggressive put buying; bearish target $37.20 by June expiry. 113.7 put 38 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1304 vs OI 431 (3.0x); similar aggressive put buying; bearish. 232.8 put 48 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 355 vs OI 150 (2.4x); very high IV 232.8%; significant put demand at higher strike.

Unusual: 111.7 put 37.2 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1354 vs OI 403 (3.4x); unusual aggressive put buying; bearish target. 113.7 put 38 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1304 vs OI 431 (3.0x); unusual put concentration; bearish. 232.8 put 48 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 355 vs OI 150 (2.4x); extremely high IV; unusual put activity at $48.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broad market selloff exacerbates negative gamma moves
!Max pain pin breaks due to aggressive flow
!Vol crush if spot stabilizes above support

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00 put
Why now: Max pain at $32 support vulnerable; put flow aggressive; long put captures downside convexity.
Time decay if spot stabilizes above support; earnings vol crush.
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00/$27.50 put spread
Why now: Negative gamma and selling pressure; bear put spread profits if spot declines below short strike.
If spot reverses above long strike, max loss limited to debit paid. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (67%).

Top Plays

#1
Long Put Downside Capture
Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00 put
Expresses bearish view on CMG ahead of earnings with high volatility, targeting breakdown below $31.77.
Why this play: Max pain at $32 support vulnerable and aggressive put flow favor a direct put purchase for convex downside exposure.
Debit: $0.35-$0.42
Max loss: $0.42
BE: $29.58
Mgmt: Monitor invalidation at $34.49; consider rolling if spot stabilizes above $33.
Aggressive traders seeking asymmetric payoff.
#2
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $30.00/$27.50 put spread
Profits from decline below $27.50, but caps gains; suitable when downside expected but not catastrophic.
Why this play: Offers cheaper defined risk alternative with similar bearish thesis, but limited upside and less convexity.
Debit: $0.25-$0.31
Max loss: $0.31
BE: $29.69
Mgmt: Price target $27.50; exit if spot breaks $34.49. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (67%).
Conservative traders wanting defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot closes below $32.00 and $30 put premium between $0.35-$0.42 → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $30.00 put
IFIF spot holds < $32.00 and bearish momentum, $30/$27.50 put spread premium $0.25-$0.31 → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $30/$27.50 put spread
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot rises above $34.49 (invalidation) → THEN close all bearish positions
EXITIF spot breaks below $27.50 (short strike of spread) or puts approach expiry → THEN take profit on bear put spread

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias due to negative dealer gamma and max pain at $32. Key support $32.5/32.4, resistance $34.49. Target breakdown below $31.77. Enter long put or bear put spread on break of $32; exit if $34.49 reclaimed. Manage vol crush risk.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.