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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $31.69EOD only

Max Pain

$31.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.80

2.5% from close

Price Gap

-0.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.31

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 24, 2026 close

CMG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias over next 1-2 weeks as spot is pinned near max pain and dealer positive delta supports. Negative gamma suggests potential for sharp moves; short gamma dynamics amplify moves, favoring upside break above $32.49.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned (though GEX negative, flow mixed, but DEX positive supports); +1 spot at MP; +0.5 VIX 19. Overall bullish lean despite mixed flow.

Supports: Spot at max pain $31-32; DEX +19.8M shares; support at $31.5 and $30.
Conflicts: Negative GEX -$13.6M; flow mixed; resistance at $33.75.

📌Spot pinned near max pain $32, acting as magnet for expiry.

⚡Negative GEX amplifies moves; breakout above $32.49 could trigger short squeeze.

📈Dealer long delta (+19.8M shares) provides bid under spot.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal relative to VIX 19; no extreme pricing. Gamma trending suggests directional vol.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative gamma -$13.6M, put OI heavy at $25 (21% below spot). Dealers short gamma, amplifying moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; puts dominate OI at strike $25, calls active at $30-32. No clear directional bias from flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $31.50 at max pain $32; within 2d range $30.90-$32.49.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — No event-specific catalyst; structural positioning and gamma/flow dynamics support a multi-week trend.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$30.90$32.49

Range $30.90-$32.49; pinning near MP; potential squeeze if break $32.49.

Next 1 week

$30.28$33.11

Range $30.28-$33.11; dealer delta supports upside; resistance at $33.11.

Next 2 weeks

$29.64$33.75

Range $29.64-$33.75; structural positive delta; gamma flip at $25 is distant.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02); $31 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $30.90/$32.49; 1w $30.28/$33.11

Support: $31.50 · $30.00 · $29.64

Resistance: $33.75

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,936 (21.1% below spot)

Structural: Support $31.5 (immediate), $30 (major), $29.64 (2w low); resistance $33.75 (2w high); gamma flip near $25 (put OI concentration).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-13.6M

DEX: +19.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,936 (21.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma (-$13.6M) with positive delta (+19.8M shares). Gamma flip at ~$25 implies downside risk below that is elevated, but far from spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV near VIX (19), no dislocation; normal vol regime.

Term structure: Not provided; assume contango typical with no event kinks.

Skew: Skew not given; no actionable vol structure identified.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$3.8M, P/C vol ratio 0.58 (more calls) but OI ratio 1.31 (more puts), mixed.

Directional prints: 46.9 call 40 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 10x, low OI, 1049 ITM calls. Likely bought (bullish) but could be sold. High volume suggests bullish positioning.

Unusual: 46.9 call 40 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 10x, low OI. 1049 ITM calls. Aggressive volume, likely opening bullish or hedged. 0 put 60.4 ITM 2026-12-18 — Vol/OI 1.7, 200 ITM puts. IV=0.0% (likely error). Moderate hedging or bearish put buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative gamma can accelerate selloffs if spot breaks $30.90

!Mixed flow lacks strong conviction; lack of bullish catalyst

!Resistance at $33.75 may cap upside

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-24 $33.00/$34.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk play to capture upside with resistance at $33.75; fits 1-2 week bullish lean with negative gamma acceleration.	Upside capped at short strike; downside limited to premium paid; earnings risk if held through 7/29.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-24 $33.00 call Why now: High gamma near term, delta 0.30-0.40 call provides convexity; fits short-term bullish thesis.	Time decay if move delayed; full loss if spot stays below strike; negative gamma exposure.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-24 $29.00/$27.00 put spread Why now: Fits mixed flow but bullish bias; lower delta put credit spread reduces risk of selloff.	Short put strike may be tested if selloff; defined loss width. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (112%).

Top Plays

Bull call spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $33.00/$34.00 call spread

Expresses bullish view with defined max loss and profit target near resistance.

Why this play: Defined risk, captures upside with resistance at $33.75. Fits 1-2 week bullish lean and negative gamma acceleration. Liquidity high.

Debit: $0.28-$0.35

Max loss: $0.35

BE: $33.35

Mgmt: Roll up if spot approaches $33.75; exit if spot breaks below $31.50.

Traders seeking defined risk with upside exposure.

Long call

Buy 2026-07-24 $33.00 call

Expresses leveraged bullish view with potential for large gains on upward move.

Why this play: High gamma offers convexity for short-term bullish bias. Unlimited upside but higher risk. Liquidity strong.

Debit: $0.79-$0.96

Max loss: $0.96

BE: $33.96

Mgmt: Take profit on spike above $34; stop loss at $31.50.

Aggressive traders wanting convexity and unlimited upside.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $29.00/$27.00 put spread

Expresses bullish view while collecting premium with limited downside.

Why this play: Fits mixed flow and bullish bias with defined risk. Lower liquidity but reduces downside risk. Good for cautious bulls.

Credit: $0.16-$0.19

Max loss: $1.81

BE: $28.81

Mgmt: Close early if spot rises quickly; monitor for gamma risk. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (112%).

Defensive bulls seeking premium income with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $31.50 support with RSI >50 and MACD bullish cross → Buy 2026-07-24 $33.00/$34.00 call spread at $0.28-$0.35

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot reaches $33.75 resistance → Roll bull call spread up or take profit on long call

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $31.50 → Exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias next 1-2 weeks; use bull call spread for defined risk near support $31.50; long call for convexity; exit below $31.50.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.