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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.23EOD only
Max Pain
$32.40
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.25
3.9% from close
Price Gap
+0.17
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
45
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.11
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
CMG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

CMG is in a high-vol, short-gamma regime with net long dealer delta. This combination amplifies upward momentum, with spot above max pain reducing pinning risk. Bias is bullish for the short-to-medium term, targeting $34.83 resistance.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 for strong GEX/flow alignment; +0.5 for spot near MP; +1 for VIX 16. Final confidence 8.5.
Supports: Short gamma, long delta, spot above MP, high vol.
Conflicts: Flow mixed; mean reversion risk if dealer hedging pauses.
🟢Short gamma regime amplifies trending.
📈DEX +23.2M shares shows net long delta.
⚠️Gamma flip at $25 far below; risk if spot drops.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs typical; high vol regime with short gamma amplifying moves.
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX -$2.4M short gamma; flip ~$25; hedging accelerates trending.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Net premium mixed; DEX +23.2M shares net long delta supports upside.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above $32 max pain; pinning reduced, continuation favored.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained short gamma, high vol, and positive dealer delta imply multi-week directional trend.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$31.73$33.72
Target upper $33.72; negative gamma aids breakout.
Next 2 weeks
$30.62$34.83
Aim for $34.83; trend sustained by dealer positioning.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-18); $31 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $31.73/$33.72
Support: $32.50 · $32.40 · $30.62
Resistance: $34.83 · $35.00
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,944 (23.6% below spot)
Structural: Support: 32.5, 32.4, 30.62; Resistance: 34.83, 35.0; Gamma flip: $25; EM guardrails: 31.73-33.72.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-2.4M

DEX: +23.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,944 (23.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma (-$2.4M GEX) with flip at ~$25; long delta (+23.2M shares). Hedging expected to amplify trend, especially on upside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: CMG IV elevated vs VIX; options price significant near-term movement, consistent with high-vol regime.

Term structure: Likely contango with near-term volatilities elevated; potential kinks around weekly expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated; no specific data; consider calendar spreads if front-end vol is rich.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative net premium -$14.6M with put/call volume ratio 1.2, driven by heavy OTM put buying for downside protection.

Directional prints: 125.4 put 40 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 5136 vs OI 1708 (ratio 3.0); large put buying, likely bearish speculation. High IV suggests premium paid for downside. 96.9 put 39.2 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 2644 vs OI 576 (ratio 4.6); aggressive new put buying, expecting further decline. IV elevated. 50 put 37.2 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1354 vs OI 403 (ratio 3.4); significant put accumulation, bearish tilt. Moderate IV.

Unusual: 259 put 48 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 355 vs OI 150 (ratio 2.4); extremely high IV 259%, potentially distressed or speculative put purchase at deep OTM strike. 40 call 36 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 904 vs OI 249 (ratio 3.6); cheap OTM call (last 0.1), possible lottery ticket or hedge against upside spike. 100.4 put 38 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1304 vs OI 431 (ratio 3.0); high IV 100.4%, new put buying for downside protection. Unusual volume intensity.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $25 if spot drops sharply
!Mean reversion if dealer delta hedging reverses
!Break of $30.62 support
!Missing macro/earnings event risk

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-07-24 $35.00/$36.00 call spread
Why now: Net long dealer delta and spot above max pain favor rally. Spread limits cost and risk.
Max loss is net debit if spot fails to rally. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (80%).
Long callModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-24 $35.00 call
Why now: High vol and short-gamma regime amplify moves; long call offers leveraged upside.
Theta decay if move delayed; max loss is premium paid.

Top Plays

#1
Leveraged Upside Long Call
Buy 2026-07-24 $35.00 call
Long call on CMG to benefit from upward momentum ahead of earnings, leveraging high implied volatility.
Why this play: Best captures short-gamma amplification and net long dealer delta with full liquidity.
Debit: $0.68-$0.83
Max loss: $0.83
BE: $35.83
Mgmt: Monitor invalidation at $32.5; consider rolling or taking profit if spot approaches resistance $34.83.
Aggressive traders seeking maximum upside exposure.
#2
Cost-Effective Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-24 $35.00/$36.00 call spread
Bull call spread reduces premium outlay and caps risk, suitable for moderate conviction.
Why this play: Lower cost and defined risk while still benefiting from bullish bias.
Debit: $0.23-$0.28
Max loss: $0.28
BE: $35.28
Mgmt: Exit if spot falls below $32.5; take profit near expiration or if spread reaches max value. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (80%).
Risk-conscious traders who want upside with limited downside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot remains above $32.5 support with bullish momentum → THEN buy 2026-07-24 $35.00 call in entry range $0.68-$0.83
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot breaks below $32.5 invalidation level → THEN close long call position to limit loss
EXITIF spot approaches resistance at $34.83 → THEN take partial profit on long call or roll to higher strike

Tactical Summary

Bullish regime with short-gamma amplification and net long dealer delta. Target $34.83 resistance. Invalidation at $32.5. Preferred play: long call (strategy 2) due to liquidity. Alternative: bull call spread (strategy 1) for defined risk. Duration multi-week.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.