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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.49EOD only

Max Pain

$31.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.29

4.0% from close

Price Gap

-0.99

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.05

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

CMG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

High-vol pinning near $32 MP. Spot above suggests downward pull; bearish bias target $32 support.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +1 GEX pinning; +0.5 spot above MP; +1 VIX 16; -1 mixed flow. Net 6.5.

Supports: Long gamma, $32 MP, spot near support.
Conflicts: High vol, mixed flow, gamma flip risk <$25.

🎯$32 MP magnet

⚡High vol breakout risk

🔄Dealer gamma pinning

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol vs typical; VIX 16.4.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

$+1.2M gamma, pinning $32.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed, no clear bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~1.5% above $32 MP.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain across Jun18/26/Jul2 expiries.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$31.20$33.79

Range 31.2-33.79; $32 support.

Next 2 weeks

$30.72$34.27

Range 30.72-34.27; downside drift.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-18); $32 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 1w $31.20/$33.79

Support: $32.00 · $30.72

Resistance: $34.27 · $35.00

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,936 (23.1% below spot)

Structural: Support $32, $30.72; Resist $34.27, $35.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.2M

DEX: +23.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,936 (23.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Long $+1.2M gamma; flip $25; pinning support.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: No IV data; VIX 16.4 moderate.

Term structure: Not provided.

Skew: Skew unknown; watch OI.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$8.6M; P/C vol 0.74, OI 1.05; mixed.

Directional prints: 262.5 put 45 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.3, IV 262%; bought bearish tail; preferred: bearish. 35.9 call 34.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 6.8, ITM call; bought bullish; preferred: bullish.

Unusual: 39.6 call 35 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 2.7, ITM call; unusual volume. 262.5 put 45 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.3, extreme IV; unusual OTM put. 215.6 put 34.8 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.7, high IV; unusual OTM put.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip <$25

!Flow shift bearish

!Vol expands range

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-26 $32.00/$31.50 put spread Why now: Flow shows bearish prints, spot above $32 MP, high vol suggests pinning down.	Missed upside if rally; vol crush if pinned at $32.
Call credit spread	Weak	Sell 2026-06-26 $34.50/$35.00 call spread Why now: High IV and bearish directional prints; selling call spread profits from limited upside.	Spot above short strike leads to loss; vol expansion harmful. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (57%).

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-26 $32.00/$31.50 put spread

Buy 2026-06-26 $32/$31.50 put spread to capture downside move.

Why this play: Flow prints and spot above $32 MP support bearish pinning; high IV favors downside.

Debit: $0.14-$0.17

Max loss: $0.17

BE: $31.83

Mgmt: Exit at 50% gain or stop if spot > $34.27.

Bearish traders expecting weakness to $32 support.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-26 $34.50/$35.00 call spread

Sell 2026-06-26 $34.50/$35 call spread to profit from limited upside.

Why this play: Bearish flow and high IV enable premium collection on capped upside.

Credit: $0.04-$0.05

Max loss: $0.45

BE: $34.55

Mgmt: Close if expiration risk; low liquidity so adjust size. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (57%).

Income-focused bearish traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks below $32.00 support → Enter bear put spread: Buy 2026-06-26 $32/$31.50 put spread

IFSpot rallies to $34.27 resistance and holds → Sell call credit spread: Sell 2026-06-26 $34.50/$35 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot reclaims above $34.27 → Exit bear put spread

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias ahead of 2026-07-29 earnings. Key levels: support $32.00, $30.72; resistance $34.27, $35.00. Prefer bear put spread on breakdown below $32 or call credit spread on rally to $34.27. Monitor for gamma flip below $25.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.