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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $31.86EOD only

Max Pain

$32.40

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.61

1.9% from close

Price Gap

+0.54

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.06

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 17, 2026 close

CMG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias with high confidence: spot below max pain $32, bearish flow, dealer short gamma, high vol. Target support 30.02, resistance 32.4.

Confidence:

8 / 10

GEX/flow aligned (+2), spot 1.7% below MP (+0.5), VIX 18 (+0.5); base 5 = total 8

Supports: Bearish regime, below MP, bearish flow, dealer short gamma, high vol
Conflicts: Long DEX (+23.9M shares), SPY/QQQ down may already price downside

📉Spot $31.25 below MP $32, bearish flow drives downside

⚠️Gamma flip near $25 (~21.5% below) could accelerate selloff

📊High vol regime supports directional momentum

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV high vs typical range; VIX 18.44 elevated

Gamma Regime

Trending

Dealer short gamma -$19.5M; trending regime with flip risk near $25

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net bearish flow; elevated put/call ratio indicates put buying

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 1.7% below MP $32, downward pressure consistent

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple max pain expiries (Jun18, Jun26, Jul2) and gamma flip within 2 weeks

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$31.25$32.47

Below MP, bearish flow, guardrail $31.25/$32.47

Next 1 week

$30.42$33.31

Max pain $32, resistance 32.4, support 30.42

Next 2 weeks

$30.02$33.71

Key support 30.02, put OI concentration below

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-18); $32 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $31.25/$32.47; 1w $30.42/$33.31

Support: $30.02

Resistance: $32.40 · $33.71 · $35.00

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,942 (21.5% below spot)

Structural: Support 30.02; resistance 32.4, 33.71, 35.0; guardrails 2d 31.25/32.47, 1w 30.42/33.31; max pain pins $32 (Jun18), $32 (Jun26), $31 (Jul2); gamma flip ~$25

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-19.5M

DEX: +23.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,942 (21.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma -$19.5M (dealer short), DEX +23.9M shares long; put OI suggests gamma flip near $25

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 18.44; premium pricing in options

Term structure: Likely backwardated due to high vol and event risk (max pain)

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider put spreads to mitigate vol

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net +$15.2M, P/C vol ratio 1.94, aggressive put buying dominates.

Directional prints: 280.5 put 39.2 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.4x, high IV; aggressive new put buying, bearish. 242.2 put 40 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.3x, high IV; likely bought puts, bearish. 227.5 put 37.2 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.1x, high IV; bought puts, bearish.

Unusual: 379.7 put 45 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.3x, extreme IV 380%; bought put, standout. 436.7 put 48 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 1.7x, extreme IV 437%; unusual high IV. 0 put 60.4 ITM 2026-12-18 — Vol/OI 1.7x, IV 0%; stale print or data anomaly.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $25 could accelerate moves

!Bearish flow may reverse on earnings event

!Market downtrend may already be priced in

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-24 $30.00/$24.00 put spread Why now: High put flow, P/C vol ratio 1.94, and dealer short gamma create bearish catalyst; bear put spread limits risk while targeting defined downside.	Upside break above 30 invalidates; time decay works against if move delayed. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Long put	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-24 $30.00 put Why now: Unusual put buying with high IV and aggressive flow suggests further downside; long put offers asymmetric payoff.	Time decay high if stock holds; requires directional move to profit.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-24 $36.00/$40.00 call spread Why now: Stock below max pain $32 and resistance at 32.4; selling call spread collects premium with defined risk.	If stock rallies above short strike, loss limited but potential; tail risk from gap up. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (69%).; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-24 $30.00 put

Buy a put to profit from downside momentum with defined risk.

Why this play: Highest confidence bearish bias, aggressive put flow, and liquidity pass; asymmetric upside.

Debit: $0.59-$0.72

Max loss: $0.72

BE: $29.28

Mgmt: Monitor invalidation at $32.4; exit if broken.

Traders with high bearish conviction seeking maximum upside.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $30.00/$24.00 put spread

Buy a put spread to target defined downside with limited risk.

Why this play: Defined risk and reduced cost; aligns with bearish thesis but liquidity fail.

Debit: $0.50-$0.61

Max loss: $0.61

BE: $29.39

Mgmt: Exit if price breaks above $32.4 or near expiration. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.

Risk-averse traders expecting moderate downside.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $36.00/$40.00 call spread

Sell a bearish call spread to profit from stagnant or falling price.

Why this play: Collects premium with low cost, but limited profit potential and liquidity fail.

Credit: $0.16-$0.19

Max loss: $3.81

BE: $36.19

Mgmt: Buy back if price rallies above $36. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (69%).; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Income-focused traders with low bearish conviction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF CMG stays below $32.4 and the $30 put trades within $0.59–$0.72 → THEN buy the 2026-07-24 $30 put (cmg_long_put_001)

IFIF CMG breaks below $30.02 support and the bear put spread can be entered within $0.50–$0.61 → THEN buy the 2026-07-24 $30.00/$24.00 put spread (cmg_bear_put_spread_001)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF CMG rallies above $32.4 → THEN exit any long put or bear put spread positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with high confidence. Priority: long put if stays below $32.4 and entry range. Secondary: bear put spread if support breaks. Exit if $32.4 broken. Monitor gamma flip at $25 for profit-taking.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.