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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $32.49EOD only

Max Pain

$31.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.29

4.0% from close

Price Gap

-0.99

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.05

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

CMG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias with spot below max pain and short gamma exposure. Dealers hedge to amplify downside. Expect drift to 30 support, potential break to 28.44 if gamma flip triggers.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -0.5 spot 3% from MP; +1 VIX 17. Final: 7.5.

Supports: Negative GEX -$25.4M, trending gamma, spot below $32 MP, dealer long delta, VIX above 17.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, resistance at 31.5, economic data could reverse.

🛑Dealer short gamma $25.4M amplifies downside.

📊Spot below $32 max pain; pinning expected.

📉Support at 30 tested; break targets 28.44.

⚠️Gamma flip at $25 (18% below) is extreme.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal relative to 30-day range, no vol spike. VIX 17.28 above neutral but CMG options not rich.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative GEX -$25.4M, dealers short gamma, accelerating moves. Gamma flip at $25 from put OI.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net premium mixed; put volume heavy below spot, call activity light. Skewed defensive.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ~$31, ~3% below $32 MP. Incentive to grind lower toward put wall.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Gamma profile and max pain attract price to lower bound over 1-2 weeks; no catalyst for reversal.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$28.92$32.17

Expect drift to 30 support; break below opens 28.44.

Next 2 weeks

$28.44$32.65

Potential test of 28.44 if gamma flip triggers; resistance at 31.5 caps upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-26); $32 (2026-07-02); $31 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $28.92/$32.17

Support: $30.00 · $28.44 · $27.50

Resistance: $31.50 · $32.65

Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,928 (18.1% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $32 (6/26, 7/02) and $31 (7/10); EM guardrails 1w $28.92/$32.17; Support at 30.0, 28.44, 27.5; Resistance at 31.5, 32.65; Gamma flip at $25.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-25.4M

DEX: +20.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,928 (18.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$25.4M (short gamma); DEX +20.1M shares (long delta); Gamma flip ~$25 based on put OI of 143,928 (18.1% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: CMG IV near 30-day median, not cheap vs VIX 17.2; relative value neutral.

Term structure: Front-end mild backwardation; longer tenors flat with no event skew.

Skew: Put skew elevated ~2 vol points; short put spreads favored but risky.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative premium $4.85M, put-heavy OI despite call volume.

Directional prints: 37.3 put 31 ITM 7/10 — Vol 535/OI 118 (4.5x), likely bought puts, bearish. 0 put 60.4 ITM 12/18 — Vol 200/OI 116, long-term bearish put, IV 0.

Unusual: 39.5 call 31 OTM 7/10 — Vol 668/OI 137 (4.9x), upside speculation, high activity. 41.4 call 32 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 831/OI 281 (3.0x), bullish call buying. 43.3 call 31.5 OTM 6/26 — Vol 423/OI 187 (2.3x), opening calls near expiry.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside from short covering if spot pushes through $32 MP.

!Downside limited by support at $28.44.

!Flow shock from large block options could reverse this thesis.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-31 $29.00/$27.00 put spread Why now: Put-heavy flow and negative net premium; short gamma amplifies downside.	Upside risk from covering if price pushes above 32 MP.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $29.00 put Why now: Dealer hedging and large put flow indicate continued selling.	Theta decay if move slow; rely on earnings catalyst.
Call credit spread	Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $35.00/$39.00 call spread Why now: Max pain at 30 caps rallies; sell call spreads above 32.	Short call exposure if covering drives spot higher. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (180%).

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $29.00/$27.00 put spread

Buy $29/$27 put spread to profit from expected drift to support. Limited downside on short covering.

Why this play: Best risk-reward; put-heavy flow and short gamma support downside. Max gain 1.35 vs loss 0.65.

Debit: $0.54-$0.65

Max loss: $0.65

BE: $28.35

Mgmt: Exit at 50% of max gain or on daily close above $31.50.

Traders seeking defined risk with high probability of success.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-31 $29.00 put

Buy $29 put for unlimited upside if downside accelerates. Theta decay if flat.

Why this play: Direct bearish bet; large put flow and dealer hedging. Higher potential gain but more risk.

Debit: $1.04-$1.27

Max loss: $1.27

BE: $27.73

Mgmt: Set stop loss at $30.50; trail stop if price drops below $28.

Aggressive traders with strong conviction in breakdown.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $35.00/$39.00 call spread

Sell $35/$39 call spread to collect premium; max gain small. Use only if comfortable with tail risk.

Why this play: Bearish but lower probability; sell call spreads above resistance. Liquidity pass false adds risk.

Credit: $0.35-$0.43

Max loss: $3.57

BE: $35.43

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit or if spot exceeds $32. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (180%).

Income-focused traders willing to accept capped profit.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF price breaks below $30.00 support → Buy 2026-07-31 $29/$27 bear put spread (max gain 1.35, max loss 0.65)

IFIF price breaks below $28.44 support → Buy 2026-07-31 $29.00 put (unlimited downside)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF price closes above $31.50 resistance → Exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with spot below max pain and dealer hedging amplifying downside. Key supports: 30, 28.44, 27.5. Resistances: 31.5, 32.65. Favor bear put spread for risk-reward; direct puts for aggressive traders.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.