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CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Close $31.69EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.80
2.5% from close
Price Gap
-0.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CMG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
CMG Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-bullish bias for next 2 days with pinning at $32; longer-term bearish lean as spot likely retraces to $31 support. Positive gamma and normal vol suggest range-bound action near max pain levels, but mixed flow and resistance at $34.16 cap upside.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
Base 5, adjusted -1 for GEX/flow contradiction, +1 for pinning support, +0.5 for VIX 19
Supports: Positive gamma pinning near $32, VIX moderate, spot above max pain
Conflicts: Mixed flow, distant gamma flip at $25, resistance at $34.16
🎯Max pain $32 on 06/26 expiry drives pinning
📈Spot above MP with positive gamma, slight bullish bias
⚠️Put OI concentration at $25 downside risk if broken

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV normal, not elevated or suppressed
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +$2.5M, positive gamma pinning near $32
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow mixed, no clear directional bias
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain $32, slight bullish but pinning likely
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expiry on 2026-06-26 with max pain $32 drives pinning; gamma positive and spot above MP suggests range-bound

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$31.60$32.95
Pinning near $32, range 31.6-32.95
Next 1 week
$30.94$33.62
Max pain shifts to $31 on 07/02, support at 30.94
Next 2 weeks
$30.40$34.16
Max pain $31, support at 30.4, resistance 34.16

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-06-26); $31 (2026-07-02); $31 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $31.60/$32.95; 1w $30.94/$33.62
Support: $31.50 · $30.40 · $30.00
Resistance: $34.16 · $35.00
Gamma flip: ~$25.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,934 (22.6% below spot)
Structural: Support: 31.5, 30.4, 30.0; Resistance: 34.16, 35.0; Max pain pins: $32 (06/26), $31 (07/02, 07/10)

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.5M

DEX: +19.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$25 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 143,934 (22.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$2.5M, DEX +19.5M shares; gamma flip at ~$25. Positive gamma supports range.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV in line with VIX 19, normal premium

Term structure: Likely flat with weekly expiry kinks

Skew: Typical skew, no clear arbitrage

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative (-$3.5M) signals net put selling; but two bullish call prints (vol/OI elevated) indicate mixed sentiment; volume ratio 0.79 call-heavy, OI ratio 1.30 put-heavy.

Directional prints: 52.9 call 33 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol 1013 vs OI 180 (5.6x) suggests opening; if bought, bullish; if sold, bearish. Preferred: bought given high ratio. 35.8 call 33 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 2895 vs OI 1059 (2.7x) indicates new position; likely bought, adding near-term bullish pressure.

Unusual: 0 put 60.4 ITM 2026-12-18 — Vol 200 vs OI 116 (1.7x) opening; IV=0% likely data error; if valid, bought implies bearish; preferred: bought (anomalous).

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below support 31.5
!Gamma flip at $25 if breached
!Vol expansion or event risk

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-10 $30.00/$29.00 put spread
Why now: Net put selling and 0.79 call/put ratio support neutral-bullish; 3.5M negative premium confirms put selling. Spot likely holds $31 support.
Break below $31 support could widen losses; tail risk from negative gamma. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (153%).
Bear put spreadWeak
Buy 2026-07-31 $32.00/$29.00 put spread
Why now: Long-term bearish lean and resistance at $34 cap upside; flow shows mixed sentiment with put-heavy OI ratio. Expect spot to drift lower after event.
Upside surprise on earnings could negate thesis; time decay hurts if move delayed. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bullish Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $30.00/$29.00 put spread
Sell $30/$29 put spread to collect premium, capitalizing on support at $31 and limited downside before earnings.
Why this play: Aligns with near-term neutral-bullish bias and net put selling flow; lower risk and capital requirement than bear put spread.
Credit: $0.08-$0.09
Max loss: $0.91
BE: $29.91
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks below $31.5; hold until expiration or 50% max profit. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (153%).
Traders expecting range-bound action with slight upside bias, seeking income with defined risk.
#2
Defensive Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $32.00/$29.00 put spread
Buy $32/$29 put spread to profit from expected drift lower after earnings, using put-heavy OI as confirmation.
Why this play: Captures longer-term bearish lean after event, but less immediate; outranked by near-term neutral-bullish play.
Debit: $0.93-$1.14
Max loss: $1.14
BE: $30.86
Mgmt: Enter after event; exit if spot breaks above $34.16 or at 75% max gain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Traders with bearish outlook beyond 2 weeks, willing to wait for retracement to $31.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF CMG spot holds above $31.5 → Sell 2026-07-10 $30/$29 put spread for $0.08-$0.09 credit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF CMG spot breaks below $31.5 → Close put credit spread
EXITIF CMG spot breaks above $34.16 → Close bear put spread if entered

Tactical Summary

Near-term neutral-bullish with support at $31.5 and resistance at $34.16. Use put credit spread for income if support holds. Post-earnings, bear put spread targets drift lower. Vol normal, gamma at $25.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.