thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTLTReports

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.74EOD only
Max Pain
$86.50
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.55
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-0.24
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
0.62
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 22, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction
6.5

out of 10

6.5 not higher because dealer GEX and concentrated OI create a meaningful pin but authoritative institutional flow and single-tail macro rate risks can quickly remove it, and front-week expiry decay adds timing risk.

Where Perspectives Agree

Near-term pin around $86–87 with dealer positive gamma supporting capped upside and a modest bullish-to-neutral tilt while that pin holds.

Where They Diverge

Flow signals of large institutional buy pressure pushing duration exposure higher and anticipating a rates-driven break above ~88 would directly undermine the pin and short-put sales; theta's push to sell premium assumes no imminent large rate move which conflicts with flow's event-driven positioning.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell May 8 $86.50/$84.50 put spread for a credit (defined-risk premium sell).

Key Risk

A two-day close below $85.00 (gamma flip) — triggers dealer unwind, removes pin and accelerates downside toward $83.50 support, invalidating the bullish/neutral thesis.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.