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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $84.68EOD only
Max Pain
$83.50
Next expiry May 27, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.75
0.9% from close
Price Gap
-1.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Conviction
6.0

out of 10

Score 6 because strong positive dealer GEX and clustered MPs materially support a pin and make premium-selling attractive, but conviction is capped by mixed/contradictory flow (institutional call buys and net premium outflow) and the concentrated expiry calendar that can produce binary pin-release moves — those factors could invalidate the thesis quickly.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market remains pinned to $86–$87 with dealer long-gamma reinforcing that magnet and creating a low-volatility, theta-rich environment where defined-risk premium selling is the natural trade.

Where They Diverge

Flow shows pockets of institutional call accumulation at $87 that read as a latent breakout bid, which directly contradicts the dealer-driven pin thesis because institutional directional buying would remove the short-gamma anchoring and push price away from $87; similarly, some short-dated buying interest into expiries conflicts with selling-heavy theta recommendations by increasing short-gamma risk for sellers.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 2026-04-24 $86/$85 put spread for a small credit (defined-risk premium sell) — aligns with theta premium-selling into the pin.

Key Risk

A decisive break and close below $86 on heavy volume (sustained move under dealer gamma flip) removes the pin; consequence is accelerated downside toward $84.20–$84.50 as dealer positioning collapses and short-put sellers are rapidly repriced.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.