thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $83.91EOD only
Max Pain
$85.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.67
0.8% from close
Price Gap
+1.09
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
26
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 20, 2026.

View latest report
Conviction
8.0

out of 10

8 not 9 or 10 because low vol regime and potential for consolidation before the move, though strong signal alignment prevents lower score.

Where Perspectives Agree

All perspectives agree TLT is bearish: negative dealer gamma, persistent put flow, and spot below max pain favor downside to $80-82.

Where They Diverge

Directional and flow advocate outright puts, while theta prefers defined-risk call spreads due to low IV—no direct conflict as theta's structure also profits from bearish bias.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 2026-06-05 $85/$87 call spread for $0.65 credit — defined risk, profits from bearish bias, expires before any event.

Key Risk

Break above $85 flips short gamma and triggers stop-losses, invalidating bearish thesis—upward acceleration to $87+.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.