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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.76EOD only
Max Pain
$84.50
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.61
0.7% from close
Price Gap
-1.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
13
Low premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Conviction
6.5

out of 10

6.5 because strong dealer gamma and put concentration favor the pin, but material event/term-structure risks and block-flow stop-run vulnerability prevent higher conviction.

Where Perspectives Agree

Bullish pin into $86 — dealer long-gamma and concentrated puts create a magnet that should keep TLT pegged or tilt modestly higher near-term.

Where They Diverge

Flow signals of institutional accumulation and occasional block buying support the pin but also bring stop-run vulnerability into larger sizes; theta wants to sell premium into the pin while earnings/term-structure (near-term vol skew) implies a binary move that could blow the pin — the latter directly undermines the directional hold if realized.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell May 8 $85.50/$83.50 put spread for a credit (theta play).

Key Risk

A break and close below $86 flips dealer gamma short, triggers amplified delta-hedging and stop-selling, and accelerates downside toward ~$83.50 support invalidating the pin.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.