thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTLTReports

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.28EOD only
Max Pain
$86.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.39
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-0.28
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.61
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction
6.5

out of 10

6.5 because strong dealer gamma and put concentration favor the pin, but material event/term-structure risks and block-flow stop-run vulnerability prevent higher conviction.

Where Perspectives Agree

Bullish pin into $86 — dealer long-gamma and concentrated puts create a magnet that should keep TLT pegged or tilt modestly higher near-term.

Where They Diverge

Flow signals of institutional accumulation and occasional block buying support the pin but also bring stop-run vulnerability into larger sizes; theta wants to sell premium into the pin while earnings/term-structure (near-term vol skew) implies a binary move that could blow the pin — the latter directly undermines the directional hold if realized.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell May 8 $85.50/$83.50 put spread for a credit (theta play).

Key Risk

A break and close below $86 flips dealer gamma short, triggers amplified delta-hedging and stop-selling, and accelerates downside toward ~$83.50 support invalidating the pin.

Read the AI Analyst Consensus for TLT for 2026-04-17. This synthesis report combines directional, theta, flow, and earnings perspectives into one conviction view with setup, trigger, and invalidation context.