thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $82.76EOD only
Max Pain
$82.50
Next expiry Aug 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.44
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-0.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Aug 7, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 7, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 25, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report
Conviction
7.0

out of 10

7 not 8 because flow hedging weakens directional conviction, and theta's low confidence (-0.5) indicates high uncertainty despite structural support.

Where Perspectives Agree

Bullish pin near $86 supported by positive dealer gamma and low volatility regime, with all three personas expecting range-bound action.

Where They Diverge

Flow shows institutional put buying at 86-87 strikes (downside hedging) directly contradicting directional's bullish bias and theta's wide condor assumption of a narrow range.

Top Trade
via directional

Sell 2026-07-17 $86.00/$85.00 put spread for $0.45 credit

Key Risk

Break below $82 flips dealer gamma long and triggers stop-loss cascade, accelerating downside to $80 support.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.