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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.07EOD only
Max Pain
$86.50
Next expiry Apr 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.46
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-0.57
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.61
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction
7.0

out of 10

7 because strong dealer GEX and low vol align multiple signals for a pin, but macro shocks or a sustained institutional call-buying push above 88.6 could rapidly reverse positioning and invalidate the range thesis.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market consensus is that TLT is pinned around ~86.5–87.5 with a modest bullish tilt—dealer gamma and prevailing flow favor range-support rather than a clean breakout higher.

Where They Diverge

Flow picks up large directional call accumulation targeting a break above ~88.6, which directly undermines the directional cap thesis and would force dealers to shift from pinning to short-gamma selling, whereas theta prefers continued premium-selling into the low-vol range.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell May 2026 $86/$84 put spread for credit (theta play).

Key Risk

A decisive break below $85 (gamma-flip trigger) forces dealer unwind, removes pinning support and accelerates downside toward ~$83.50 within days.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.