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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.21EOD only
Max Pain
$86.50
Next expiry Apr 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.40
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-0.71
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
20
Low premium
P/C OI
0.61
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 14, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 14, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction
5.5

out of 10

5.5 because gamma positioning and concentrated near-term strikes create a tangible pin that favors short-premium trades, but conviction is pulled down materially by (1) opposing institutional flow that can overwhelm dealer positioning, (2) clustered expiries that create binary pin/unpin behaviour, and (3) low IV which makes short-premium attractive but fragile to a macro shock — enough signal alignment for a trade but not high confidence for a directional hold.

Where Perspectives Agree

Dealer gamma and concentrated options positioning are creating a near-term magnet into the mid-$80s (around $86), making the immediate outlook range-bound with a slight upside bias while dealers absorb flow.

Where They Diverge

Flow intelligence indicates heavier institutional selling and longer-dated protection accumulation that prefers a lower rate/price outcome; this directly contradicts the directional pin thesis where dealer gamma should sustain price at $86—if institutional selling is large enough it will overwhelm short-gamma support and push TLT lower. Additionally, an earnings/event-like cluster of expiries (multiple immediate expiries) creates a timing conflict: theta wants to harvest premium into expiry while directional relies on the pin surviving those same expiries.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell May 01, 2026 $86/$83 put spread for a credit (theta-oriented defined-risk premium sell).

Key Risk

A decisive break and close below $83.00 on high volume (triggered by large institutional selling or a macro shock) undermines dealer short-gamma support, unpins $86, and accelerates downside toward the $80 gap area — this outcome invalidates the short-premium/pin thesis.

Read the AI Analyst Consensus for TLT for 2026-04-14. This synthesis report combines directional, theta, flow, and earnings perspectives into one conviction view with setup, trigger, and invalidation context.