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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.49EOD only
Max Pain
$86.50
Next expiry Apr 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.50
0.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
1
Low premium
P/C OI
0.63
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 10, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction
6.0

out of 10

Score 6 because the pin + low-IV environment makes premium-selling the highest-probability path, but conviction is capped by regime fragility: dealer gamma means a small sustained move or macro surprise can invalidate the setup quickly, and flow ambiguity (mixed/incomplete) prevents a stronger conviction.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market is pinned to the mid-$80s (near $86) with dealer gamma and low IV creating a premium-rich, short-theta environment that favors defined-risk, time-decay strategies rather than long-volatility or outright directional exposure.

Where They Diverge

Theta recommends persistent premium-selling and short-defined-risk structures, but the directional view highlights a narrow gamma regime where a >±1% sustained move (dealer rehedging) or an unexpected rates shock would rapidly invert the short-premium payoff; this directly undermines the safety of aggressive short-volatility sizing. Additionally, directional signals note concentrated call interest just above the pin that could flip the regime if unwound — a commercialization of flow that would contradict the pure pin/short-theta thesis.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 2026-04-24 85/82.5 put spread and sell 2026-04-24 87.5/90 call spread (defined-risk iron condor) for a net credit (expect small premium); structure: defined-risk iron condor, expires Apr 24.

Key Risk

A sustained daily close below ~$85.60 (roughly a >1% move left of the pin) triggers dealer gamma rebalancing and a cascade of protective flow — that action would flip the pin, remove the short-theta edge, and accelerate downside toward the next structural support around ~$84.20.

Read the AI Analyst Consensus for TLT for 2026-04-10. This synthesis report combines directional, theta, flow, and earnings perspectives into one conviction view with setup, trigger, and invalidation context.