thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTLTReports

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.75EOD only
Max Pain
$86.50
Next expiry Apr 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.53
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-0.25
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
24
Low premium
P/C OI
0.63
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 13, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction
6.0

out of 10

6 because dealer gamma/pinning and a low-volatility regime meaningfully increase odds of a stable pin and profit for defined-risk income, but conviction is capped by mixed flow (institutional activity that could add duration) and the asymmetric risk of a gamma flip on a <~$85.86 breach or a macro rates shock — both could rapidly invalidate short-premium positions.

Where Perspectives Agree

All perspectives converge on a controlled market centered around the $86–$87 pin: dealers’ gamma positioning creates a magnet that makes range-bound, premium-selling trades highest-probability while directional breakouts would be amplified by dealer flows.

Where They Diverge

Theta-driven short-premium recommendations clash with flow signals that show pockets of institutional accumulation (flow suggesting buying convexity/long duration), which would undermine short vol trades if institutions continue to add length; additionally, directional's tight upside bias conflicts with any flow that is net long duration because that increases asymmetric upside risk.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 2026-05-01 $85.00 / $83.00 put spread for credit (defined-risk income).

Key Risk

A sustained break and close below $85.86 (the 1-week EM lower / gamma flip threshold) — trigger: dealer gamma shifts from pinning to short/stop cascade — consequence: rapid downside acceleration toward $82–$83 support levels that will blow out short-premium/put-spread structures.

Read the AI Analyst Consensus for TLT for 2026-04-13. This synthesis report combines directional, theta, flow, and earnings perspectives into one conviction view with setup, trigger, and invalidation context.