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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.76EOD only
Max Pain
$84.50
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.61
0.7% from close
Price Gap
-1.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
13
Low premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Conviction
6.0

out of 10

6 because dealer gamma/pinning and a low-volatility regime meaningfully increase odds of a stable pin and profit for defined-risk income, but conviction is capped by mixed flow (institutional activity that could add duration) and the asymmetric risk of a gamma flip on a <~$85.86 breach or a macro rates shock — both could rapidly invalidate short-premium positions.

Where Perspectives Agree

All perspectives converge on a controlled market centered around the $86–$87 pin: dealers’ gamma positioning creates a magnet that makes range-bound, premium-selling trades highest-probability while directional breakouts would be amplified by dealer flows.

Where They Diverge

Theta-driven short-premium recommendations clash with flow signals that show pockets of institutional accumulation (flow suggesting buying convexity/long duration), which would undermine short vol trades if institutions continue to add length; additionally, directional's tight upside bias conflicts with any flow that is net long duration because that increases asymmetric upside risk.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 2026-05-01 $85.00 / $83.00 put spread for credit (defined-risk income).

Key Risk

A sustained break and close below $85.86 (the 1-week EM lower / gamma flip threshold) — trigger: dealer gamma shifts from pinning to short/stop cascade — consequence: rapid downside acceleration toward $82–$83 support levels that will blow out short-premium/put-spread structures.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.