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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.76EOD only
Max Pain
$84.50
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.61
0.7% from close
Price Gap
-1.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
13
Low premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Conviction
5.5

out of 10

5.5 because gamma positioning and spot pin mechanics materially support the magnet, but conviction is capped by (1) mixed institutional flow that includes protective put-buying which can trigger one-sided moves and (2) concentrated near-term expiries that can flip dealer gamma quickly; low IV reduces margin for error on sold premium.

Where Perspectives Agree

Across lenses the dominant thesis is that TLT is being magnetized into the $86–$87 area with dealer gamma providing a supportive backstop, creating a low-volatility, theta-friendly environment where defined-risk short premium is the natural lean.

Where They Diverge

Flow signals are mixed—some institutional accumulation around the pin but net premium flow is slightly negative—creating a direct tension: flow’s protective put activity undermines the persistent pin thesis and raises the chance of a downside excursion; theta wants to sell premium aggressively but low IV makes single-leg credit thin, forcing structured defined-risk sells instead.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 5/08 $85.50/$85.00 put spread for ~ $0.08 credit (defined-risk, theta-driven).

Key Risk

A decisive break below $86.00 (sustained close and print under $86.00) flips dealer gamma net exposure to the short side, removes the pin, and would accelerate selling toward the next structural support near $84.20 — that move invalidates the short-premium/pin thesis.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.