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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.83EOD only
Max Pain
$86.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.48
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-0.83
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
46
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.61
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 15, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction
6.0

out of 10

Score 6 because structural pinning and low vol give a reliable bias for defined-risk premium selling, but conviction is capped by mixed institutional flow and two near-term event dates that can spike front-week IV and invalidate short-dated shorts — good odds but not high-confidence.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market structure and dealer gamma are favoring a pin into the mid-$80s (~$87 area) and create a clear edge for selling premium around that magnet; consensus is that low IV and concentrated GEX make short, defined-risk plays the path of least resistance.

Where They Diverge

Flow intel is mixed — some institutional flow is accumulating duration on the long-end which supports a continuation above $87, while event-driven dynamics (two near-term event dates) and the theta desk both signal that short-dated premium selling is attractive; the conflict is operational: flow-driven accumulation would widen the tape and punish aggressive short-week sellers, directly undermining front-week credit trades.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell May 15, 2026 $86/$84 put spread for a net credit (~collect premium), sized as a defined-risk theta play that keeps upside pain limited while capturing pinning edge.

Key Risk

A decisive breach and one-day close below $86 flips dealer gamma positioning — dealers stop pinning and re-hedge into the sell-side, which would accelerate downside toward $83.50 (gap/support) and invalidate short-premium bets.

Read the AI Analyst Consensus for TLT for 2026-04-15. This synthesis report combines directional, theta, flow, and earnings perspectives into one conviction view with setup, trigger, and invalidation context.