thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.36EOD only
Max Pain
$87.00
Next expiry Jun 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.39
0.4% from close
Price Gap
-0.36
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 26, 2026 close
TLT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Sustained spot above $80 gamma flip
Invalidation: Break below $80 on increased put volume
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +1 VIX 18

Watch next session: Monitor 87.5 strike activity

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$9.2M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 1.08

P/C OI ratio: 0.75

Net premium positive with strong positive GEX, despite mixed flow and elevated put volume. Gamma pinning near spot supports bullish bias. Large 87.5 call and 87 put prints suggest rangebound with upside skew.

Notable Prints

#1
TLT 2026-08-07 $83.00 Put
Vol: 1,750
OI: 147
Vol/OI: 11.9x
IV: 11.3%
Notional: ~$19K
Intent: Bearish hedge

Read-through: Expect decline to $83 by Aug 7.

#2
TLT 2026-06-30 $72.00 Call
Vol: 1,500
OI: 151
Vol/OI: 9.9x
IV: 50.0%
Notional: ~$2.1M
Intent: Arbitrage

Read-through: Non-directional mispricing trade.

#3
TLT 2026-06-29 $87.50 Call
Vol: 28,778
OI: 3,183
Vol/OI: 9.0x
IV: 1.6%
Notional: ~$29K
Intent: Closing

Read-through: Closing position at expiry.

#4
TLT 2026-07-10 $87.00 Put
Vol: 7,219
OI: 1,047
Vol/OI: 6.9x
IV: 10.2%
Notional: ~$267K
Intent: Bearish

Read-through: Expect TLT below $87 by July 10.

#5
TLT 2026-07-06 $84.00 Put
Vol: 582
OI: 133
Vol/OI: 4.4x
IV: 14.3%
Notional: ~$582
Intent: Tail hedge

Read-through: Bet on drop to $84.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Deep ITM $72 calls, OTM $93 calls added; $87.50 calls likely closing.

Put additions: Puts at $83 (Aug), $87 (Jul/6/30) bought.

GEX/DEX consistency: GEX +$1.9B, DEX +206M, consistent with pinning.

OI clusters: $87 strikes heavy OI (calls 3.2k, puts 2.1k); $80 put OI 107.6k.

Hedging evidence: Put buying signals downside hedging; $80 gamma flip support.

Max pain context: Spot at MP, positive GEX pinning near $87.

Signal vs Noise

~Large $87.50 call volume vs OI with near-zero premium is noise (expiring worthless).
~Put buying at $83/$87 is signal: real hedging flow.

Key Conclusions

🛡️Put accumulation at $83/$87 signals hedging ahead of events.
📈Positive GEX/DEX support pinning at $87 MP.
🔍Large $87.50 call volume today is noise.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.