thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.20EOD only
Max Pain
$86.00
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.33
0.4% from close
Price Gap
-0.20
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
TLT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Break above $90 next week resistance with call volume rising
Invalidation: Close below $86.50 with put volume surging
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

Watch next session: TLT $90 Call; TLT $87 Put

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$36.9M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.77

P/C OI ratio: 0.71

Heavy call buying with net $36.9M premium. GEX +$2.1B supports pinning. Unusual put activity at $87.50 suggests hedging. Bullish bias persists with low VIX.

Notable Prints

#1
TLT 2026-06-26 $87.50 Put
Vol: 7,656
OI: 361
Vol/OI: 21.2x
IV: 8.1%
Notional: ~$245K
Intent: Short-term bearish speculation or closing
Dual read: Could be delta hedging

Read-through: Bearish bias near expiry

#2
TLT 2026-07-24 $90.00 Call
Vol: 14,159
OI: 680
Vol/OI: 20.8x
IV: 9.5%
Notional: ~$241K
Intent: Bullish speculation on bonds
Dual read: Cheap long shot

Read-through: Optimistic on rate cuts

#3
TLT 2026-07-24 $86.50 Put
Vol: 6,209
OI: 346
Vol/OI: 17.9x
IV: 9.5%
Notional: ~$366K
Intent: Bearish hedge or speculation
Dual read: Protective put

Read-through: Risk management

#4
TLT 2026-06-24 $87.00 Put
Vol: 4,578
OI: 316
Vol/OI: 14.5x
IV: 5.9%
Notional: ~$5K
Intent: Closing of existing positions
Dual read: Exercise unlikely

Read-through: Expiry day activity

#5
TLT 2026-06-26 $87.00 Put
Vol: 18,136
OI: 1,555
Vol/OI: 11.7x
IV: 8.9%
Notional: ~$236K
Intent: Short-term bearish bet or hedging
Dual read: Gamma scalping

Read-through: Bearish sentiment

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Deep OTM calls ($72, $80) and $90 Call 7/24 added strongly.

Put additions: Weekly $87.5, $87 puts and $86.5 puts added; likely hedges.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes: +2.1B GEX, +216M DEX, bullish flow align.

OI clusters: Largest OI: $87 put (1,555) and $90 call (680).

Hedging evidence: High put vol below spot suggests collar/protective hedging.

Max pain context: Spot above MP; gamma pinning suggests drift to MP.

Signal vs Noise

~Put vol spike on weeklies is hedge noise not bearish signal.
~Deep OTM call buying is speculative noise from low premium.

Key Conclusions

🟡Deep OTM call buying is speculative noise; not a strong bullish signal.
🟡High put volume below spot is hedging, not bearish bet; gamma pinning supports upside.
🔴Gamma flip at $80 poses risk if spot falls below; monitor for breakdown.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.