thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.72EOD only
Max Pain
$85.00
Next expiry Jun 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.58
0.7% from close
Price Gap
-0.72
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
35
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
TLT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Price holds above $80 gamma flip support with continued call buying
Invalidation: Break below $78 on increased put volume
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.8% from MP; +1 VIX 16

Watch next session: $80.50 call open interest; $84.50 put resistance

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$70.9M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.90

P/C OI ratio: 0.76

Heavy call buying across strikes with positive net premium and $1.4B GEX suggest bullish positioning. Unusual prints at $80.50, $82, $91 calls reinforce upside bias. Risk-off market context (SPY -0.6%) supports bond inflows. Watch $80 gamma flip for support.

Notable Prints

#1
TLT 2026-06-18 $82.50 Call
Vol: 4,400
OI: 108
Vol/OI: 40.7x
IV: 35.5%
Notional: ~$1.6M
Intent: Bullish directional

Read-through: Significant new call buying

#2
TLT 2026-06-24 $80.50 Call
Vol: 5,450
OI: 249
Vol/OI: 21.9x
IV: 28.9%
Notional: ~$2.9M
Intent: Bullish roll

Read-through: Position adjustment

#3
TLT 2026-07-31 $89.50 Call
Vol: 2,039
OI: 135
Vol/OI: 15.1x
IV: 9.5%
Notional: ~$41K
Intent: Speculative long
Dual read: Possible seller

Read-through: Long-dated OTM call

#4
TLT 2026-06-24 $82.00 Call
Vol: 2,232
OI: 162
Vol/OI: 13.8x
IV: 22.7%
Notional: ~$993K
Intent: Bullish spread

Read-through: Part of vertical

#5
TLT 2026-07-02 $91.00 Call
Vol: 8,112
OI: 625
Vol/OI: 13.0x
IV: 14.6%
Notional: ~$32K
Intent: Lottery ticket
Dual read: Hedge

Read-through: Cheap OTM speculation

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Heavy call buying at 80.5-82.5 strikes, especially near-term expirations (6/18, 6/24, 6/26).

Put additions: Minimal put activity; one modest 84.5 put print (1573 vol) but small OI.

GEX/DEX consistency: Consistent: GEX +$1.4B, DEX +196M shares, gamma flip at $80 supports bullish pinning.

OI clusters: Largest OI clusters: calls at 80, 80.5, 82.5; puts concentrated at $80 (gamma flip).

Hedging evidence: No clear hedging; call buying reflects direct bullish exposure.

Max pain context: Spot near max pain; pinning gamma likely anchors price around $80-82.

Signal vs Noise

~High vol/oi call prints at 80.5, 82.5, 80 strikes are bullish signals.
~Far OTM calls (89.5, 91, 65) are speculative noise due to low OI, low premium, and extreme IV.
~The 84.5 put print is marginal signal; likely small hedge, not bearish.

Key Conclusions

📈Institutions adding heavy call positions at $80.5-$82.5 strikes, signaling upside bias.
🛡️Pinning gamma and low vol regime suggest limited downside, with spot at max pain.
🔍Put activity minimal; no aggressive hedging detected.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.