thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.35EOD only
Max Pain
$86.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.35
0.4% from close
Price Gap
-1.35
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
TLT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Spot holds above 80 gamma flip; continued call buying or positive net premium; VIX remains low.
Invalidation: Spot breaks below 80; heavy put accumulation; negative net premium; VIX spikes above 20.
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 1.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

Watch next session: 87.5 call activity; 88 resistance; put flow at 86.5

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$25.7M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.73

P/C OI ratio: 0.74

Flow is overwhelmingly bullish: net premium +$25.7M, call-heavy prints at 87.5, low put/call ratios. Positive GEX and DEX support further upside. Market context of equity weakness may favor bonds. Key risk is a break below the 80 gamma flip.

Notable Prints

#1
TLT 2026-07-02 $87.50 Call
Vol: 76,257
OI: 3,296
Vol/OI: 23.1x
IV: 6.3%
Notional: ~$1.6M
Intent: Bullish opening

Read-through: High vol/oi 23.1 suggests strong bullish bet

#2
TLT 2026-07-01 $86.50 Put
Vol: 5,164
OI: 387
Vol/OI: 13.3x
IV: 10.3%
Notional: ~$62K
Intent: Bearish put
Dual read: Could be protective

Read-through: High vol/oi 13.3 indicates bearish sentiment

#3
TLT 2026-06-30 $72.00 Call
Vol: 1,500
OI: 151
Vol/OI: 9.9x
IV: 76.6%
Notional: ~$2.1M
Intent: Deep ITM call opening
Dual read: May be synthetic long

Read-through: High IV suggests leveraged bullish

#4
TLT 2026-07-01 $88.50 Call
Vol: 1,413
OI: 289
Vol/OI: 4.9x
IV: 7.8%
Notional: ~$4K
Intent: Unclear flow intent

Read-through: Needs contextual interpretation.

#5
TLT 2026-07-01 $87.50 Put
Vol: 1,320
OI: 365
Vol/OI: 3.6x
IV: 12.7%
Notional: ~$81K
Intent: Unclear flow intent

Read-through: Needs contextual interpretation.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Aggressive call buying at 87.5 Jul2 (23x OI) and 88 Jul24; deep ITM calls at 72.

Put additions: Put buying at 86.5/87.5 short-dated and 84/85 Jul24 (downside hedges).

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes, both strongly positive and aligned with net call premium.

OI clusters: Largest OI at 87.5 call (Jul2) and 85/84 puts (Jul24); gamma flip at 80.

Hedging evidence: Downside put hedges at 84/85 Jul24; short-dated puts at 86.5/87.5.

Max pain context: Spot at MP, gamma pinning expected near current levels.

Signal vs Noise

~Massive 87.5 Jul2 call volume (23x OI) is real bullish signal.
~Put buying at 86.5/87.5 low OI is noise from retail hedging.
~Deep ITM call at 72 likely hedging, not directional.

Key Conclusions

📈Aggressive call buying at 87.5 Jul2 suggests institutional bullish bias.
🛡️Downside hedges at 84/85 Jul24 indicate cautious positioning amid rally.
📌Spot at max pain with positive gamma, pinning likely near current levels.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.