thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.75EOD only
Max Pain
$85.50
Next expiry Jun 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.49
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-1.25
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
78
High premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
TLT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Continued bullish flow with net premium positive and low VIX supports pinning.
Invalidation: Break below gamma flip at $80 or VIX spike above 20.
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +1 VIX 17

Watch next session: Watch for call OI expansion above $83.; Monitor VIX for any uptick.

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$15.9M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.70

P/C OI ratio: 0.71

TLT shows strong bullish flow: high net premium, unusual call volume across strikes. Positive gamma and low VIX suggest pinning near MP. Slightly negative market context but low vol supports bonds.

Notable Prints

#1
TLT 2026-06-26 $83.00 Call
Vol: 4,916
OI: 517
Vol/OI: 9.5x
IV: 26.9%
Notional: ~$1.5M
Intent: Bullish call buying

Read-through: Near-term bullish bet.

#2
TLT 2026-06-24 $73.00 Call
Vol: 718
OI: 105
Vol/OI: 6.8x
IV: 85.2%
Notional: ~$960K
Intent: ITM call liquidation

Read-through: High IV suggests closing.

#3
TLT 2026-07-10 $89.50 Call
Vol: 2,427
OI: 361
Vol/OI: 6.7x
IV: 10.6%
Notional: ~$10K
Intent: Cheap OTM call buy

Read-through: Speculative bullish.

#4
TLT 2026-07-01 $82.00 Put
Vol: 876
OI: 200
Vol/OI: 4.4x
IV: 15.0%
Notional: ~$876
Intent: Small put hedge

Read-through: Downside protection.

#5
TLT 2026-07-02 $79.00 Put
Vol: 497
OI: 125
Vol/OI: 4.0x
IV: 21.1%
Notional: ~$497
Intent: Bearish speculation

Read-through: OTM put for drop.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Heavy near-term call buying, especially 6/26 83C and 6/24 73C

Put additions: Moderate put buying at 85.5P and 82P, but lower volume relative to calls

GEX/DEX consistency: Positive GEX ($+1.2B) and DEX (+191M shares) align with bullish flow

OI clusters: Large put OI cluster at 78 (115k), call OI scattered; max pain ~82.60

Hedging evidence: Minimal; puts may serve as tail hedges for long positions

Max pain context: Spot near MP ($82.60), pinning expected with heavy near-expiry calls

Signal vs Noise

~Sustained call accumulation at 83C (9.5x vol/OI) signal bullish conviction
~Large block of 85.5P (3.7x vol/OI) may be put selling or hedging, not directional bearish
~Low IV on 73C (85% IV) suggests tail risk speculation, not core positioning
~Most unusual prints are small OI; focus on high-vol contracts with >3x ratio

Key Conclusions

🚀Heavy call buying and positive GEX pinning spot at MP; institutional positioning leans bullish near-term
⚠️Though flow is bullish, near-expiry gamma pinning could limit upside; watch 83C and 85.5P levels
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.