thetaOwl

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.38EOD only
Max Pain
$85.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.53
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-2.38
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
TLT Flow Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasMixed
Confirmation: Spot holds above $80 gamma flip; put volume eases
Invalidation: Break below $80 or put OI surge
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

Watch next session: Gamma flip $80; Put volume ratio

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$30.6M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 1.01

P/C OI ratio: 0.72

TLT flow mixed: net premium positive but prior put buying at 85-87 strikes now easing. Large GEX supports pinning near $80. VIX low, regime low vol. Unusual prints show both call (72-80) and put (86-84) activity, indicating hedging.

Notable Prints

#1
TLT 2027-03-19 $86.00 Put
Vol: 11,010
OI: 486
Vol/OI: 22.6x
IV: 10.9%
Notional: ~$2.8M
Intent: Bearish directional bet or hedge
Dual read: Possible put selling for income; very low IV suggests premium capture

Read-through: Large new position in long-dated OTM puts, indicating downside expectation or protective hedging.

#2
TLT 2026-06-30 $72.00 Call
Vol: 1,500
OI: 151
Vol/OI: 9.9x
IV: 65.6%
Notional: ~$2.1M
Intent: Bullish directional bet or spread
Dual read: Could be closing a deep ITM call; low OI suggests new opening

Read-through: Deep ITM call with high IV; likely aggressive bullish speculation or part of a reversal strategy.

#3
TLT 2026-06-30 $80.00 Call
Vol: 2,806
OI: 300
Vol/OI: 9.3x
IV: 42.2%
Notional: ~$2.1M
Intent: Bullish speculation
Dual read: Possible covered call writing or closing

Read-through: ITM call with above-average IV and volume/ OI; suggests new bullish positioning.

#4
TLT 2027-05-21 $84.00 Put
Vol: 3,908
OI: 455
Vol/OI: 8.6x
IV: 10.8%
Notional: ~$797K
Intent: Bearish directional bet
Dual read: Hedging against a bond market decline

Read-through: Long-dated put with high volume relative to OI; consistent with protective buying.

#5
TLT 2026-07-02 $90.50 Call
Vol: 4,617
OI: 641
Vol/OI: 7.2x
IV: 12.7%
Notional: ~$9K
Intent: Speculative OTM call buying
Dual read: Closing small losing position; last $0.02 suggests near worthless

Read-through: High volume in nearly worthless OTM call; likely a low-cost speculative bet.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Large OTM calls at 72,80,70 for Jun30 expiry and 90.5 for Jul2

Put additions: Heavy put additions at 86,84,87,85 across Mar19, Jun29, Jul31 expiries

GEX/DEX consistency: +$2.1B GEX and +215M DEX consistent with pinning; gamma flip at 80 supports upside

OI clusters: Highest put OI at 87 (2.4K) and 85 (1.5K); call OI sparse

Hedging evidence: Significant put volumes across several strikes indicate hedging or bearish positioning

Max pain context: Spot above MP; pinning to higher levels likely

Signal vs Noise

~Signal: large put activity at 86 and 87 for distant expiries
~Noise: low-volume 90.5 call (0.02 last) is negligible

Key Conclusions

🛡️Institutions hedge downside via puts at 86 and 87 strikes, suggesting caution
🚀Short-dated calls at 72/80/70 on Jun30 reflect speculative upside
Positive GEX and pinning regime support upside, but heavy put flow warns
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.