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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.30EOD only
Max Pain
$84.50
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.56
0.7% from close
Price Gap
-0.80
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 27, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 27, 2026 close
TLT Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
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Outlook

Neutral-to-slight-bull with an upside magnet toward the pin area near $87; base confidence 6.5/10 (see drivers) driven by strong near-term GEX concentration around $87 and spot sitting ~0.98% above max-pain $86 with low IV limiting big moves; mixed flow and negative net premium (-$12.5M) are the main caution.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Pre-computed base score 6.5/10 retained; listed factors (+1 GEX pinning, +1 proximity to MP, +0.5 VIX, -1 GEX/flow contradiction) are explanatory contributors from the deterministic model rather than additive adjustments to be summed separately; spot-to-MP is ~0.98% (spot $86.83 vs MP $86), not 0.4%. No confidence_override applied.
Supports: 1) Heavy GEX at $87 (+$515.6M) and concentrated OI at $86 puts (111,327) create a local pinning magnet; 2) Low ATM IV (7–10%) makes short premium attractive near the pin; 3) EM bounds for 2d–1w ($86.35–$87.45) compress directional range.
Conflicts: 1) Net premium flow is bearish (-$12.5M) and P/C vol ratio 0.62 suggests some call demand that could push higher if macro rallies; 2) Large call OI further OTM ($90–110) creates asymmetric upside interest.
📌**Pinning**: GEX concentration +$515.6M at $87 creates an active magnet within the 2‑day EM ($86.35–$87.31).
💰**Short premium edge**: ATM IV low (~7–10%) and net premium negative (-$12.5M) favors defined-risk premium selling near the pin.
⚠️**Asymmetric tail risk**: Call OI walls at $90–$110 and structural call wall $92–$110 mean a sudden rates move higher can unwind dealer shorts quickly.
🧭**Event window**: Small expected-move bumps 4/17–4/22 (±0.6–0.9%) — prefer weeklies for tactical plays.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
Low volatility regime (Avg IV 13.6%, ATM 2d–1w ~7–9%) which compresses premium for buyers and favors premium sellers; limited IV to buy for long vol.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning gamma centered at ~$86–$87 (gamma flip ~ $86) means dealers will hedge into moves toward the pin, increasing mean-reversion risk inside the EM bounds.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow: net premium bearish (-$12.5M) but P/C ratios (0.62/0.61) and call-heavy OI at higher strikes indicate two-sided activity; currently marginally bearish premium consumption but dominated by dealer pin/friction.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot $86.83 sits essentially At MP (max pain ~ $86 across expirations) so price is magnetized to $86–$87; this reduces directional edge absent macro.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and flat MP across expirations (MP ~ $86 persistently) combined with sustained GEX >$1B and DEX positioning indicate a multi-week regime (2–4 weeks) where gamma/hedging dynamics persist; weeklies useful tactically but prefer 30–45 DTE for primary expressions.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$86.35$87.31
Held inside 2d EM $86.35–$87.31; break above $87.31 with VIX drop or macro risk-on would target $88; failure below $86.35 exposes support $86.00.
Next 1 week
$86.22$87.45
1w EM $86.22–$87.45; sustained buy flow or SPY/QQQ strength likely pushes to upper bound; catalyst for breach lower is accelerated dealer gamma sell if spot < $86.00.
Next 2 weeks
$85.40$88.27
2‑week bounds $85.40–$88.27; a durable macro shock or large bond repricing required to breach beyond $85.40 or above $88.27 (structural call OI wall at $92–$110 limits fast upside).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-04-15); $86 (2026-04-17); $86 (2026-04-20)
EM guardrails: 2d $86.35/$87.31; 1w $86.22/$87.45
Support: $86.50 · $86.00 · $85.40
Resistance: $87.00 · $88.27 · $90.00
Gamma flip: ~$86.00 — Approx  based on put OI concentration of 111,327 (1.0% below spot); spot $86.83 is ~0.98% above MP $86 which slightly reduces immediacy of the pin but leaves strong GEX-induced magnetism.
Structural: Structural call OI wall at $92 60 92110 is a distant upside cap that can absorb upside but flip dealer hedging if rate expectations change; primary long-term supports $85.40 and $84.88 (1630d EM bottoms).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.3B

DEX: +162.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$86 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 111,327 (1.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term gamma heavy and positive: total GEX +$1.3B with concentrations +$515.6M at $87 and +$110.3M at $86.50; dealers are long gamma near spot and will buy into dips and sell into rallies inside the pin region — expect chop and pin behavior. If spot moves +2% (~$88.57) dealers flip toward net negative gamma and hedging accelerates selling; if spot moves -2% (~$85.10) dealer hedges buy bonds (support), compressing downside but exposing puts at $85/$86.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV is cheap vs. equity VIX context: ATM IV 2–9% near-dated and avg IV 13.6% versus VIX 18.17 — implies short premium has structural edge and buying vol is expensive relative to realized equity vol signals.

Term structure: Term structure modestly upward sloping from weeklies (7–10%) to 3–6 months (~10–11%); notable kink: 2–9d IV (7.1–8.9%) compressed ahead of EMs 4/17 and 4/20, making weeklies cheap but sensitive to event spikes.

Skew: Skew favors puts close to the money (heavy put OI at $86/$85); mispriced opportunity: sell defined-risk put credit spreads targeting short strikes $85–$86 in 16–37 DTE where IV is low and GEX provides mean-reversion support (edge: Moderate-Strong).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium is bearish -$12.5M and materially driven by large long-dated put premium flows (see standout prints) which outweigh discrete call accumulation in volume terms.

Directional prints: 21.9 call 94.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — TLT260424C00094500: Vol 2,034 OI 162 — speculative long-call standout at elevated IV; bullish if buyer-initiated, but small relative to put blocks. 20.5 call 97 OTM 2026-05-08 — TLT260508C00097000: Vol 500 OI 100 — notable OTM call interest at $97 supporting upside hedging/spec exposure; both buy and sell reads possible. 17 call 97 OTM 2026-05-22 — TLT260522C00097000: Vol 500 OI 155  similar theme of OTM call accumulation across expirations indicating structural upside optionality. 32.8 put 55 OTM 2026-07-17 — TLT260717P00055000: Vol 10,000 OI 4,204  very large long-dated put flow that represents substantial paid downside protection or long-vol speculation and materially contributes to the negative net premium figure. 27.1 put 55 OTM 2026-10-16 — TLT261016P00055000: Vol 2,000 OI 622  additional large long-dated put purchasing reinforcing bearish premium and insurance demand.

Unusual: 21.9 call 94.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — 4/24 $94.50 call (Vol 2,034) is the standout unusual call print at high IV; treat as speculative long-call interest rather than primary driver of net premium. 32.8 put 55 OTM 2026-07-17 — 7/17 $55 put (Vol 10,000 OI 4,204) is a material unusual flow: large long-dated put buying that supports the bearish net premium read and indicates hedging or tail-risk buying by large participants.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$86: breach below $86 could force quick dealer re-hedging and deeper sell pressure.
!Event squeezes on 2026-04-17 and 2026-04-20 (expected moves ±0.6–0.7%) can spike short dated IV and punish short-weekly sellers.
!Macro shock (rates repricing) could blow through the $92–$110 call wall and flip dealer hedging into sharp sell-side gamma.
!Net premium bearish flow (-$12.5M) means one-sided buying could push price away from pin despite GEX; be cautious around large flow prints.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Call credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-04-24 $88.00/$89.00 call spread
Why now: Large positive GEX at $87 and low near-term IV make selling tight call spreads (just above $87) profitable as dealers pin; net premium negative indicates sellers are active.
Loss if spot breaks above strike spread, accelerated if macro rates spike.
Put credit spreadStrong
Sell 2026-05-15 $86.00/$84.00 put spread
Why now: Heavy put OI at $86 (111,327) and GEX positive means dealers will buy into small sell-offs; IV is low so defined-risk put credits are attractive 16–37 DTE.
Downside gap beyond short put strikes or sudden rate move; requires strict sizing.
Iron condorModerate
Sell 2026-05-15 $85.00/$83.00 put wing and $89.00/$91.00 call wing
Why now: Pinning gamma and tight EM bounds ($86.35–$87.31) favor range premium sales with defined wings; use 16–37 DTE to capture multi-week regime.
Tail risk on rates shock; requires wing width discipline.
Call calendarModerate
Sell 2026-04-17 $87.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $87.00 call
Why now: Weekly IVs are compressed and pinning creates repeatable shorting opportunities; calendar exploits low front IV and higher mid-term IV.
Front-week gap up or IV spike; requires roll discipline.
Long callConditional
Buy 2026-05-22 $90.00 call
Why now: Unusual activity in $92–$97 calls and large call OI higher shows concentrated upside bets; low cost for deep OTM calls with limited debit and potential large payoff.
Low win-rate; requires large move higher to pay off.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-04-17 $86.50 put
Why now: Event risk 4/17–4/20 and concentrated puts at $86/$85 make short-week puts cheap insurance to hedge long duration exposure.
Theta decay if no move; better sized as hedges not primary trades.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate
Buy 2027-03-19 $92.00 call + sell 2026-04-24 $87.50 call
Why now: Long-dated calls show elevated OI and term IV slope; owning long calls (120–300 DTE) + short weekly calls monetizes low IV and collects premium against long-term directional view.
Assignment on sold calls and roll friction; exposure to large rate moves.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-01 $86.50/$88.00 call spread
Why now: Dealers buy into dips and sell into rallies near pin — a debit bull call spread captures upside while limiting cost in a low-IV environment.
Limited upside relative to outright call but cheaper carry; hurt if price stalls.
Long straddleConditional
Buy 2026-04-17 $87.00 put + buy $87.00 call
Why now: IV is low so long straddle is usually expensive vs realized moves, but around event dates a realized-vol pop could justify it; keep size small.
High theta burn if no vol move; best during clear catalyst.

Top Plays

#1
Sell 30D Put-Credit at the $86 area
Sell 2026-05-15 $86.00/$84.00 put spread
Defined-risk put credit sized to short 86 / long 85 (30 DTE target) to collect premium while relying on dealer gamma to buy dips; best in size if capitalized.
Why this play: Highest edge: heavy put OI at $86 and positive GEX create mean-reversion support; low IV and multi-week pinning favor defined-risk put credits.
Credit: $0.40-$0.49
Max loss: $1.51
BE: $85.51
Mgmt: Close or roll if spot < $85.40 (2‑week EM bottom) or IV spikes >+3 pts; tighten if spot trades under $86.00.
Traders seeking income with defined risk and conviction on pin persisting.
#2
Sell near-term Call Credit just above $87
Sell 2026-04-24 $88.00/$89.00 call spread
Short a tight call credit in 7–16 DTE near $87 (sell ~0.25 delta, buy ~0.10 hedge).
Why this play: Captures the pin’s short-term magnet and benefits from low weekly IV; GEX concentration at $87 increases short-premium profitability.
Credit: $0.06-$0.08
Max loss: $0.92
BE: $88.08
Mgmt: Reduce or flip to calendar if spot closes > $87.31 (2d EM upper) or on large call-print flow.
Experienced traders wanting high theta with defined risk on upside.
#3
Calendar the $87 calls (sell front-week, buy back-month)
Sell 2026-04-17 $87.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $87.00 call
Sell 4/17 $87 call and buy 5/22 $87 call to harvest front-week decay with multi-week participation.
Why this play: Exploits cheap front-week IV and pinning; collects repeated weekly premium while keeping upside optionality in back month.
Debit: $0.75-$0.92
Max loss: $0.92
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll short weekly if pin persists; close the calendar if spot > $88 or if front IV spikes >+4 pts.
Traders with ability to manage rolling and small margin requirements.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot trades <= $86.50 (support) then open put-credit spread short 86 / long 85 exp 30 DTE. → Enter put-credit spread short 86 / long 85 with 30 DTE.
IFIf spot trades >= $87.25 (near 2d EM upper) then enter call-credit spread short 88 / long 91 exp 9–16 DTE. → Enter call-credit spread short 88 / long 91 with 9–16 DTE.
IFIf an unusual $92–$97 call print with >5000 volume or OI appears then buy small OTM call (90–97) for tail exposure 23–64 DTE. → Buy one small OTM long call (target 90–97 strike) 23–64 DTE.
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf IV front-week rises > +3 pts (e.g., ATM IV > 11%) then convert short weekly call credit into calendar by buying back front-week short and selling next front-week. → Buy back front-week short call and establish back-month long call to convert into calendar_call structure.
ADJIf spot closes below $85.40 (2‑week EM low) then reduce short-put exposure by 50% and buy short-dated puts (4/17) at 86 strike. → Trim short put positions by 50% and buy 4/17 86 put as hedge.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot closes > $88.27 (2‑week upper bound) then close all short-call credit positions. → Close all short-call credit spreads and calendars.
EXITIf net premium flow flips to > +$10M bullish (net premium > +$10M) then tighten or close short premium positions. → Tighten or close short premium positions (reduce size by 50%).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: pinning near $86–$87 in a low-IV environment favors defined-risk premium selling and calendars; invalidate bearish income thesis below $85.40 (2‑week EM bottom). Top plays: S2 put-credit (best for income/defined-risk), S1 call-credit (tactical short weekly near pin), S4 calendar_call (collect front-week decay while keeping multi-week optionality).
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This directional reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.
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