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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $84.22EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.54

0.6% from close

Price Gap

+0.78

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish to $85, supported by GEX/flow alignment and pinning; low vol caps speed.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow; +1 pinning; +1 spot near MP; +1 low VIX.

Supports: Positive GEX, bullish flow, spot at MP, low VIX.
Conflicts: Resistance $85, $85.79; gamma flip $80.

📈GEX +$358M aligns with bullish drift

📊Low vol (VIX 17) limits urgency

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low vol, VIX 16.76.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$358M positive, pin near $85, flip $80.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net bullish flow, P/C supportive.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $84, 0.9% from MP, pins at $85 and $84.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Pinning and low vol support short-term bullish drift.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$83.69$84.76

Drift to $85 pin.

Next 1 week

$83.29$85.15

Test $85 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$82.65$85.79

Range $82.65-$85.79, gamma flip $80.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $85 (2026-05-22); $84 (2026-05-27); $85 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $83.69/$84.76; 1w $83.29/$85.15

Support: $82.65 · $81.00 · $80.00

Resistance: $85.00 · $85.79 · $86.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 92,604 (5.0% below spot)

Structural: Pins $85 (5/22,5/29), $84 (5/27); guardrails 2d 83.69-84.76, 1w 83.29-85.15; support 82.65-80; resistance 85-86; gamma flip 80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+358.2M

DEX: +192.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 92,604 (5.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$358M, DEX +192M shares, gamma flip at $80.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV low vs own history, reflecting current low-vol regime; comparable to TYVIX levels.

Term structure: Flat, slight contango, front-month low vol.

Skew: Skew positive; low IV favors long vol if breakout.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net positive premium $4.25M, P/C vol ratio 0.58, bullish call flow dominant.

Directional prints: 12 call 81 ITM 2026-12-18 — Vol/OI 17.9, deep ITM call. Aggressive buying for Dec 2026, bullish long-term bet. Likely bought. 11.8 call 88 OTM 2027-04-16 — Vol/OI 14.8, OTM call. Large buyer positioning for upside, bullish directional flow.

Unusual: 68 call 76 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 5.3 on $76C ITM 1DTE, IV 68%. Unusual near-exp call activity, possibly closing/rolling. 10.3 call 85.5 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 5.3 on $85.5C OTM, last $0.09. Unusual volume, likely opening for small premium. 13.5 put 80 OTM 2027-05-21 — Vol/OI 4.9 on $80P OTM. Unusual put volume, protective or bearish bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $83.29 triggers gamma flip to $80.

!Resistance at $85 may stall.

!Bond market event risk.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-12 $85.50/$86.50 call spread Why now: Bull call spread captures upside to $85 with defined risk and leverage.	Max loss if below short strike; time decay if stagnant.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-12 $82.50/$81.00 put spread Why now: Sell put credit spread to collect premium with defined risk below support.	Delta risk if break below short strike (83).
Long call	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-05 $85.50 call Why now: Long call for upside convexity with limited downside, supported by positive flow.	Theta decay if no immediate move; low vol reduces speed.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-12 $85.50/$86.50 call spread

Captures upside to $85 with leverage and limited loss.

Why this play: Best aligns with bullish thesis, defined risk, and positive flow.

Debit: $0.17-$0.20

Max loss: $0.20

BE: $85.70

Mgmt: Monitor near $85; exit at profit or if invalidated below $82.65.

Moderate bullish traders seeking defined risk.

Long Call

Buy 2026-06-05 $85.50 call

Unlimited upside potential with defined downside premium.

Why this play: Direct long upside convexity, supported by unusual call activity.

Debit: $0.22-$0.27

Max loss: $0.27

BE: $85.77

Mgmt: Risk of total loss; set stop on break below $83.29.

Aggressive bullish traders seeking max convexity.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-12 $82.50/$81.00 put spread

Bullish via credit sale; benefits from time decay and support holding.

Why this play: Premium collection with defined risk, but less direct upside exposure.

Credit: $0.21-$0.26

Max loss: $1.24

BE: $82.24

Mgmt: Close early if price approaches $82.50; manage pinning risk.

Income-focused bullish traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf TLT holds above 82.65 and breaks 83.29 guardrail with momentum → Buy 2026-06-12 $85.50/$86.50 call spread for ~0.18 debit

IFSame confirmation but for max convexity → Buy 2026-06-05 $85.50 call for ~0.24 debit

IFIf TLT pulls back to 82.65 but holds, bullish intact → Sell 2026-06-12 $82.50/$81.00 put spread for ~0.23 credit

Exit Triggers

EXITIf TLT breaks below 82.65 or reaches/resists $85 → Exit all bullish positions; consider reversal

Tactical Summary

Bullish to $85 with defined risk via bull call spread (rank1), long call (rank2) for convexity, or put credit spread (rank3) for income. Key support at 82.65, resistance $85, gamma flip $80. Enter on confirmation above guardrail (83.29). Exit on breakdown below 82.65 or stall at $85.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.