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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $83.02EOD only
Max Pain
$84.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.55
0.7% from close
Price Gap
+0.98
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
TLT Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
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Outlook

Bearish bias on TLT given negative dealer gamma, bearish flow, and spot below max pain. Low vol environment but risk of acceleration lower. Target $82.29-$80 over 2 weeks.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +0.5 spot 1.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18. Strong alignment across regime signals.
Supports: Spot below max pain, negative gamma, bearish flow, low VIX.
Conflicts: Elevated dealer long delta (+197M) could slow decline; low vol may persist.
📉Negative gamma $-772M accelerates downside moves
⚡Gamma flip at $80 (4.4% below spot) key risk
📊Bearish flow and spot below $85 max pain

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
IV below typical range, VIX 18.43, low vol suggests muted realized vol.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative gamma $-772M implies dealer hedging amplifies moves; gamma flip at $80, 4.4% below spot.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow with net put premium, consistent with downside bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~$83.7, below max pain $85; pinning unlikely, drift lower expected.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative gamma and bearish flow indicate sustained downside; low vol may precede expansion.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$83.00$84.33
Testing guardrail $83, could break below.
Next 1 week
$82.74$84.58
Range $82.74-$84.58, downside bias towards support.
Next 2 weeks
$82.29$85.03
Target lower end $82.29, gamma flip at $80.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $85 (2026-05-15); $85 (2026-05-18); $85 (2026-05-20)
EM guardrails: 2d $83.00/$84.33; 1w $82.74/$84.58
Support: $82.29 · $80.00
Resistance: $85.00 · $85.03 · $86.00
Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 81,685 (4.4% below spot)
Structural: Structural resistance $85 (max pain), support $82.29, $80 gamma flip. Guardrails: 2d $83/$84.33, 1w $82.74/$84.58.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-772.1M

DEX: +197.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 81,685 (4.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma -$772M, long delta +197M shares, gamma flip ~$80. Negative gamma accelerates downside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV cheap vs VIX in low vol regime; premium selling opportunity but risk of vol jump.

Term structure: Term structure likely contango; event risk from Fed minutes could flatten.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling put spreads at gamma flip area attractive.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative $40.3M with put/call vol ratio 1.62, signaling bearish flow dominance.

Directional prints: 10.4 call 85 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 22.1x; large new OI suggests opening; likely sold as bearish bet; preferred read: bearish. 14.6 put 81 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 31.6x; volume 79k vs OI 2.5k; likely bought as bearish protection; preferred read: bearish. 11.6 call 84 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 29.8x; high volume; likely sold as resistance play; preferred read: bearish.

Unusual: 28.6 put 45 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol/OI 91.3x; extreme tail put; likely sold for premium or downside hedge; preferred read: neutral. 18.5 put 80.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 20.1x; moderate volume; could be bearish put buying; preferred read: bearish. 11.6 call 83.5 ITM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 13.1x; small; could be bullish or bearish; preferred read: uncertain.

Risks & Catalysts

!Hawkish Fed surprise could spike yields, hurting TLT
!Bond supply or inflation data reversal
!Low vol regime may persist, delaying move

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Iron condorModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-06-26 $81.00/$80.00 put wing and $86.00/$89.00 call wing
Why now: Bearish flow, negative gamma, low vol environment favor premium selling with bearish skew.
Upside risk if yields fall; low vol may delay move.
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-05-29 $82.50/$80.50 put spread
Why now: Defined risk bearish debit spread; using 14dte for quick decay alignment with 2-week view
Upside risk if yields rally sharply; max loss is debit paid
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-06-05 $82.50 put
Why now: Long put for direct bearish exposure with limited risk; 21dte balances time and theta decay
Time decay if move is delayed; vol crush if market stabilizes
Bearish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-12 $83.00 put / sell 2026-06-12 $86.00 call
Why now: Risk reversal captures downside with premium from call sale; 28dte for multi-week thesis
Uncapped upside if TLT rallies sharply; short call limits profit potential

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-05-29 $82.50/$80.50 put spread
Buy $82.50/$80.50 put spread expiring in 14 days to capture downside with limited premium outlay.
Why this play: Aligned with 2-week bearish view, defined risk, quick decay
Debit: $0.20-$0.25
Max loss: $0.25
BE: $82.25
Mgmt: Exit at target ($80) or if TLT rallies above $85 invalidation.
Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure with a short time horizon.
#2
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $81.00/$80.00 put wing and $86.00/$89.00 call wing
Sell $81/$80 put wing and $86/$89 call wing, thriving in stagnant or mildly bearish price action.
Why this play: Exploits low vol and bearish flow by selling wings; benefits from time decay and negative gamma.
Credit: $0.48-$0.58
Max loss: $2.42
BE: 80.42 / 86.58
Mgmt: Close if TLT breaks below $80 or above $86; take profit at 50% max gain.
Premium sellers comfortable with range assumptions and low vol.
#3
Long Put
Buy 2026-06-05 $82.50 put
Buy $82.50 put expiring June 5 for pure downside exposure.
Why this play: Direct bearish bet with limited risk; 21dte balances time and theta decay.
Debit: $0.52-$0.64
Max loss: $0.64
BE: $81.86
Mgmt: Set stop at 50% loss; target $80 or manage based on volatility shifts.
Aggressive traders wanting unlimited upside from a sharp drop.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF TLT breaks below support at $82.29 → Buy bear put spread (bear_put_spread_1): $82.50/$80.50 put spread exp 2026-05-29
IFIF TLT trades below $83.00 with bearish momentum → Buy long put (long_put_1): $82.50 put exp 2026-06-05
Exit Triggers
EXITIF TLT rallies above $85 invalidation level → Close bearish positions (bear_put_spread_1, long_put_1, iron_condor_bearish_tlt)

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias on TLT due to negative dealer gamma and bearish flow. Targets $82.29 and $80 over 2 weeks. Key resistance $85 (max pain). Use defined-risk bearish strategies: bear put spread or long put on breakdown; iron condor for range. Invalidation above $85.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.