Home Options TLTReports

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.76EOD only

Max Pain

$84.50

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.61

0.7% from close

Price Gap

-1.26

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin to the $86 area and slight upside bias toward $88 driven by heavy positive GEX and call flow concentrated at $87-$88; Confidence: 6.5/10.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 6.5: +1 from large positive GEX (+$1.3B) and pinning at $86-$87; -1 because net premium is slightly negative and flow mixed; +0.5 VIX 18.36 supports low-IV regime.

Supports: Large put OI at $86 (111,992) and GEX concentration +$294.2M at $87.00 create buy-side dealer hedging around $86-$87; max pain clustered at $86 across expirations.
Conflicts: Net premium -$8.7M and P/C volume 0.59 indicate more call buying than put buying; flow is mixed with some large long-put premiums out the curve (e.g., $115 put flow).

📌Pinning/GEX strong at $87.00 (+$294.2M) and $88.00 (+$130.5M) — dealers incentivized to keep spot near $86-$87

📉IV very low (Avg IV 13.6%, ATM 1d 7.4% / 17d 10.2%) — favors premium sellers and defined-risk credit trades

🧭Gamma flip ~ $86; breach below $86 would remove dealer pinning and likely accelerate downside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low IV regime — Avg IV 13.6% and ATM term near 8–11%; vol is cheap relative to historical TLT moves and VIX 18.36.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX $+1.3B concentrated at $87 and $88; dealers are long convexity exposure and will hedge to resist moves away from the pin.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: call-heavy near-spot (net premium at $87 call net $3.12M) but institutional protective put buying further OTM; P/C vol 0.59 supports call skew dominance.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $87.21 is essentially at Max Pain (~$86 across expirations), creating a neutral-to-slight-bull gravity toward $86-$87 where pain is minimized.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain and GEX pin persist across multiple expirations (flat MP ~ $86) and GEX concentrations exist across next expirations; favors 30–45 DTE primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$86.81$87.61

Dealer hedging/GEX concentrations at $87/$86 limit moves; break below $86 would flip behavior.

Next 1 week

$86.42$87.99

Sustained call flow at $87-$88 and MP at $86 keep action range-bound; sustained bid through $88 frees upside to $89.

Next 2 weeks

$85.63$88.78

If spot stays >$86, dealer hedging will mute downside and allow measured appreciation toward higher OI call bands ($89-$92).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-04-15); $86 (2026-04-17); $86 (2026-04-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $86.81/$87.61; 1w $86.42/$87.99

Support: $86.00 · $85.00 · $82.00

Resistance: $88.00 · $89.00 · $92.00

Gamma flip: ~$86.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 111,992 (1.4% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall at $92-$110 provides a sticky cap; deeper structural put interest <$80 offers long-term floor for aggressive positions.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.3B

DEX: +168.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$86 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 111,992 (1.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term gamma concentrated at $87.00 (+$294.2M) and $87.50 (+$68.4M); dealers will buy bonds (sell duration) to hedge rallies above these strikes and buy duration (sell bonds) on small dips — a ~±2% move (~$85.27/$89.95) would materially reduce hedging if spot moves below $86 (gamma flip) or above $89 (flip to call-dominant hedging).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IVs are low: Avg IV 13.6% vs VIX 18.36; short-dated ATM IVs are 7–10% — vol is cheap and favors selling premium.

Term structure: Slightly upward sloping: 1d ATM 7.4% → 17d 10.2% → 45d 10.6% → 94d 11.1% — pick calendars where near-term IV is higher vs longer-dated legs.

Skew: Downside skew muted; mispriced opportunity: sell near-term 2026-04-22 straddle/iron within tight EM (1d–6d) — better is selling premium against pin at $87/$86 where IV is low but pinning raises short-premium edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium slight negative (-$8.7M) but top flow concentrated in near-spot calls (e.g., $87 call net $3.12M), indicating buyer demand for calls around the pin.

Directional prints: 9.9 call 87 ITM 2026-04-22 — Large volume 4,373 / OI 300 on 4/22 $87C — could be buys (call accumulation) or exercised hedges; aligns with call-heavy net premium. 13.4 call 92.5 OTM 2026-05-08 — Unusual 5,577 vol / OI 301 on 5/08 $92.50C — institutional directional or hedge; implies guarded upside interest into May.

Unusual: 7.8 put 87 OTM 2026-04-22 — 4/22 $87 put flow (vol 3,066 / OI 280) — could be sold puts or protective hedges; more consistent with overall mixed flow but smaller than call flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$86 removes dealer pin and can accelerate a move lower.

!Immediate expiries (4/15, 4/17, 4/20) clustered MP at $86 create sharp pin/unpin risk around these dates.

!Low IV means sharp macro surprise (rates or CPI) can spike IV and blow up short-premium positions.

!Call OI wall $92-$110 can cap rallies and cause mean reversion if rates move unexpectedly lower.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	Buy shares at market $87.21	Duration risk and cheap IV favor options instead of outright stock.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — dealers pinned long-delta tendencies reduce trend edge	Gamma pinning creates mean-reversion; shortstock vulnerable to pin reversion.
Covered call	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-01 $90 call against stock (if long)	Caps upside to $90; limited premium in low-IV environment.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 $86.00/$83.00 put spread (defined-risk)	Gamma flip <$86; width provides buffer vs pin.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-08 $92.50 call for directional upside (unusual activity sighted)	Expensive directional bet; low IV but long-tail upside required.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-01 $84.00/$82.00 bear put spread	Low IV reduces payoff; requires clear downside breakout below gamma flip.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 $83/$80 put spread and $90/$92.5 call spread (defined-risk condor)	IV spike or breach of $86 gamma flip will stress put wing; call wing heavy due to structural wall at $92.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-01 $87 call, buy 2026-04-22 $87 call (reverse calendar — sold longer-dated leg IV 10.2%, bought shorter-dated leg IV 9.9%; sell higher-IV leg)	If pin resolves and IV falls across the curve, short-long differential can hurt; watch roll cost.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-12-18 $88 LEAP call, sell 2026-05-01 $88 call (sell higher-IV near-term)	Roll risk if pin breaks; longer-dated convexity exposure but financed by short near-term.
Short straddle/strangle (near-term)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 $87 straddle (collect ATM premium inside tight EM)	Pin/unpin into expiry; IV spike or >$1 move losses grow quickly.

Top Plays

Sell 17d put spread vs pin

Sell 2026-05-01 $86.00/$83.00 put spread

Collect defined credit against strong GEX pin at $86-$87; wide spread matches gamma flip buffer.

Credit: $0.60-$0.90

Max loss: $300.00

BE: $85.40

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot <$85.00 or IV >+3 pts.

Defined-risk premium collectors who want multi-week exposure

Iron condor 30–45d

Sell 2026-05-01 $83/$80 put spread and $90/$92.5 call spread

Two-sided defined-risk premium sell that uses pin and call wall to compress range; extra width on calls to account for structural cap at $92.

Credit: $0.85-$1.40

Max loss: $216.50

BE: Put side ~ $82.15 / Call side ~ $91.28

Mgmt: Take 50% profit; hedge or cut if spot breaches $86 below for >30 min or IV jumps >+2 pts.

Traders wanting balanced credit with multi-week decay

LEAPS diagonal (directional with financing)

Buy 2026-12-18 $88 call, sell 2026-05-01 $88 call (rollable)

Long-term bullish exposure financed by short near-term calls exploiting shallow term-structure; benefits if pin holds and rates fall into summer.

Debit: $-1.80-$-1.20

Max loss: $180.00

BE: ~ $89.80 by Dec (approx)

Mgmt: Trim short leg if spot >$90 or buy back if IV collapses; close long leg if fundamentals change.

Longer-term directional players who want defined carry and lower cost basis

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $86.00 and holds 30 min → Sell 2026-05-01 $86/$83 put spread

IFIf spot remains between $86.50–$88.00 into 10:30 ET with VIX <19 → Sell 2026-05-01 iron condor $83/$80 / $90/$92.5

IFIf 2026-04-22 $87 call OI accelerates >1,000 contracts hourly → Buy 2026-05-08 $92.50 call (directional hedge/participation)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot drops below $85.00 or IV +2 pts vs baseline → Buy protective 2026-05-01 $80 put or roll put wing down in iron condor to $78

ADJIf spot rallies above $89.00 and holds 15 min → Buy back short call wing of 2026-05-01 iron condor and replace with $92.5/$95 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIf position hits 60% of max profit for credit trades → Close position and collect; reduce size on subsequent weeks

EXITIf spot < $86.00 and sustained for 60 min → Exit short premium trades and switch to long-protection (buy 2026-05-01 $80/$78 put spread)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers' large positive GEX and MP near $86 create a stable, range-bound environment favoring defined-risk premium selling into low IV; invalidation is sustained break and hold below $86 (gamma flip). Top plays: 17d sell put spread (best for defined-risk collectors), 30–45d iron condor (balanced credit), and LEAPS diagonal at $88 (long-term directional financed by short near-term).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.