Home Options TLTReports

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $83.91EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.67

0.8% from close

Price Gap

+1.09

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TLT is range-bound near $84 max pain with bullish flow, positive gamma, and low vol. Bias slightly bullish within guardrails, but pinning limits upside. Confidence high at 9/10.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 positive gamma +1 spot near MP +1 VIX 17 = 9.

Supports: Bullish flow, low vol, gamma pinning, spot at $84 MP.
Conflicts: Resistance at $85.62, gamma flip at $80.

📈Bullish flow supports upside bias.

📌Spot pinned to $84 max pain.

📉Low vol reduces breakout risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

IV low for TLT; VIX 17 confirms low vol regime.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$51.9M positive gamma; pinning near $84 MP.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium bullish; P/C ratio supportive.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $84.05 at MP $84; strong pinning.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain expiry on 2026-05-20; gamma pinning and low vol create event-specific range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$83.25$84.58

Pin to $84; guardrails $83.25-$84.58.

Next 1 week

$82.88$84.94

Drift to $85 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$82.20$85.62

Broader range $82.20-$85.62; gamma support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $84 (2026-05-20); $85 (2026-05-22); $84 (2026-05-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $83.25/$84.58; 1w $82.88/$84.94

Support: $83.50 · $82.20 · $81.00

Resistance: $85.62 · $86.00 · $87.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 92,941 (4.7% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $84; EM guardrails 2d $83.25/$84.58, 1w $82.88/$84.94; support $83.5/$82.2/$81.0; resistance $85.62/$86.0/$87.0; gamma flip ~$80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+51.9M

DEX: +191.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 92,941 (4.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$51.9M, DEX +191.4M shares; gamma flip ~$80 based on put OI.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV inline with VIX; slightly cheap but not extreme.

Term structure: Contango; front-month low, back-month higher.

Skew: Flat skew; calendar spread to capture contango.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$14M, P/C vol ratio 0.65, OI ratio 0.78, signaling aggressive bullish flow.

Directional prints: 12.5 call 83.5 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 5.1, 18.5k vol vs 3.6k OI. Likely bought opening, bullish ATM bet. Preferred: bought. 64.8 call 76 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 5.3, 4.7k vol vs 0.9k OI. Deep ITM call bought, strong directional conviction. Preferred: bought. 36.5 call 80 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 5.4, 3.5k vol vs 0.6k OI. ITM call bought, bullish view. Preferred: bought.

Unusual: 21.5 call 93 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 9.6, 1.7k vol vs 0.2k OI. Highly speculative OTM call, likely small bullish bet. Preferred: bought. 14 call 97 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol/OI 8.6, 4.5k vol vs 0.5k OI. Long-dated OTM call, unusual size. Likely bought for upside speculation. Preferred: bought. 18 call 89 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 8.5, 0.9k vol vs 0.1k OI. OTM call with minimal OI, likely new buy. Preferred: bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks below gamma flip at $80.

!Volatility spike from macro event.

!Resistance at $85.62 stalls upside.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-06-05 $83.50/$82.00 put spread Why now: Put credit spread profits if TLT stays above sold put; OTM short put at $83.5 and long put at $82 define risk, capitalizing on neutral-bullish bias.	Break below $82 from macro shock causes max loss; pinning at $84 limits profit.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-05 $85.00/$86.00 call spread Why now: Low vol and bullish flow make debit call spread attractive; long $85 call, short $86 call caps cost and profit target near resistance.	Resistance at $85.62 may cap, causing spread to expire worthless; only profitable if TLT rises above $85.13 by expiration.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $82.50/$81.50 put spread Why now: Positive gamma at key strikes (85C, 86C) and low vol favor selling puts. 16-23 DTE aligns with near-term bias.	Spot drop below $80 breaches gamma flip; tail risk from macro shock.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-05 $85.00/$86.50 call spread Why now: Large OI at 86C and 87C with positive GEX. Low IV makes debit cheap. 16-23 DTE captures short-term move.	Time decay if spot stalls; max loss limited to debit paid.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-05 $85.50 call / sell 2026-06-05 $82.00 put Why now: Strong call flow (83.5C bought) and put skew favor selling OTM puts. 16-23 DTE matches event window.	Uncapped upside if spot rallies; put leg limits downside risk. High margin requirement.

Top Plays

Put Credit 83.5/82

Sell 2026-06-05 $83.50/$82.00 put spread

Sell OTM put spread to collect premium near max pain.

Why this play: Aligns with neutral-bullish bias; high credit vs risk.

Credit: $0.40-$0.49

Max loss: $1.01

BE: $83.01

Mgmt: Exit at 50% profit or if TLT <83.5.

Range-bound bullish

Bull Call 85/86.5

Buy 2026-06-05 $85.00/$86.50 call spread

Buy cheap OTM call spread for leveraged upside.

Why this play: Captures upside if flow pushes price; low cost.

Debit: $0.21-$0.25

Max loss: $0.25

BE: $85.25

Mgmt: Take profit if TLT hits 86; stop at 83.5.

Bullish with upside target

Put Credit 82.5/81.5

Sell 2026-06-05 $82.50/$81.50 put spread

Sell deeper OTM put spread for high probability.

Why this play: Safe premium collection; lower max loss.

Credit: $0.17-$0.20

Max loss: $0.80

BE: $82.30

Mgmt: Collect premium; exit early if vol spikes.

Defensive bullish

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFTLT holds above $83.5 → Enter put credit spread 83.5/82 (sell 83.5 put, buy 82 put) for 0.40-0.49 credit

IFTLT pulls back to $82.2 support with bullish flow → Buy bull call spread 85/86.5 for 0.21-0.25 debit

Adjustment Triggers

ADJTLT breaks below $83.5 → Roll to defensive put credit spread 82.5/81.5 for 0.17-0.20 credit

Exit Triggers

EXITTLT reaches $85.62 resistance or drops below gamma flip $80 → Close all bullish positions and evaluate re-entry

Tactical Summary

TLT range-bound near $84 max pain with bullish flow. Bias neutral-bullish; key support $83.5, resistance $85.62. Prefer put credit spreads for income and bull call spreads for upside. Monitor guardrails and gamma flip $80 for invalidation.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.