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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $84.80EOD only
Max Pain
$86.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.51
0.6% from close
Price Gap
+1.20
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
69
High premium
P/C OI
0.66
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
TLT Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with low vol and bullish flow, offset by negative dealer gamma (-701M) and spot near MP. Upside capped at $94 resistance; downside risk to $88 gamma flip. Confidence 6/10.

Confidence:
6 / 10
Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradictory; +1 spot 0.7% from MP; +1 VIX 17 low vol environment. Net 6.
Supports: Bullish flow, low vol regime, spot near MP $92-93 area
Conflicts: Negative dealer gamma ($-701M), gamma flip at $88, resistance $93.5-$94
📈Bullish flow + low vol = tailwind, but dealer hedging limits upside
⚠️Gamma flip at $88: 4.3% below spot, high put OI concentration

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
Low vol regime; VIX 17.26, TLT IV cheap relative to equity vol. Favorable for premium selling.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma with negative dealer GEX ($-701M). Gamma flip at $88 from put OI concentration. Short gamma above spot accelerates moves.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow with net premium buying; contradicts negative dealer gamma, suggesting possible near-term squeeze if spot rallies.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at max pain ($92-93) for upcoming expiries (May 15, 18, 20). Pin action likely; break requires strong catalyst.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain concentration in 2-6 days (May 15-20) with low vol regime suggests pinning or slow grind; event risk from gamma flip farther out.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$84.55$85.28
Range $91.55-$92.28 with max pain $93; spot near upper end, possible pin
Next 1 week
$84.18$85.65
Range $91.18-$92.65; resistance at $93.5-94, support at $91.18
Next 2 weeks
$83.71$86.13
Range $90.71-$93.13; downside risk to $90.71 and gamma flip $88

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-05-15); $85 (2026-05-18); $85 (2026-05-20)
EM guardrails: 2d $84.55/$85.28; 1w $84.18/$85.65
Support: $83.71 · $80.00
Resistance: $85.50 · $86.13 · $90.00
Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 80,567 (5.8% below spot)
Structural: Support: $90.71 (2w low), $88 (gamma flip). Resistance: $93.5-94 (max pain area), $97.0 (structural). EM guardrails: 2d $91.55/$92.28, 1w $91.18/$92.65.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-701.3M

DEX: +176.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 80,567 (5.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Negative dealer gamma (-$701M) with 0.5D GEX. Positive delta (+176M shares). Short gamma amplifies moves, especially above spot. Gamma flip at $88 from put OI concentration of 80,567 contracts (4.3% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Low vol regime vs VIX 17.26; TLT IV likely cheap relative to equity vol, offering opportunities for long premium in case of vol expansion.

Term structure: No explicit data; likely contango given low vol. Event expiries (May 15-20) may show kinks around max pain dates.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to gamma flip at $88; call skew muted. Opportunity: sell puts at $88 strike (gamma flip support) with low IV to collect theta.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net $13.8M call-heavy; P/C vol 0.60, OI 0.67; bullish flow.

Directional prints: 22.6 call 81.5 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 36.2, OI 257; high volume suggests opening call buying, bullish. 27.2 call 80.5 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 35.8, OI 130; aggressive call buying, bullish. 20.8 call 82 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 35.3, OI 231; strong call volume, directional bullish.

Unusual: 10.6 put 84 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 50.6, OI 557; massive put buying, bearish hedge or speculation. 22.6 call 81.5 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 36.2, OI 257; unusual call buying, bullish. 27.2 call 80.5 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 35.8, OI 130; high vol call, bullish bias.

Risks & Catalysts

!Unexpected spike in long rates (TLT down) could break $88 gamma flip
!Dealer short gamma can cause sharp moves if spot breaks above $92.65 or below $91.18 guardrail

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-05-29 $84.00/$83.50 put spread
Why now: Low vol and bullish flow favor premium collection; defined risk protects against gamma flip.
Underlying breaks below short strike, causing max loss.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-29 $86.00/$86.50 call spread
Why now: Bullish bias with low vol makes debit spread attractive; upside limited by resistance.
Underlying fails to rally, causing debit loss.
Cash-secured putModerate
Sell 2026-05-29 $84.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Bullish bias but cautious; selling put at support strike earns premium with buy-the-dip mentality.
Underlying drops below strike, obligating stock purchase at above market.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-05-29 $86.00/$86.50 call spread
Debit spread to profit from moderate upside with limited risk.
Why this play: Aligns with bullish bias and low vol; defined risk limits downside; upside fits capped resistance.
Debit: $0.09-$0.10
Max loss: $0.10
BE: $86.10
Mgmt: Exit if TLT breaks below $83.71 or near $86.50 resistance.
Moderately bullish traders with defined risk tolerance.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-05-29 $84.00/$83.50 put spread
Sell put spread to collect premium with defined risk below support.
Why this play: Bullish flow and low vol favor premium collection; defined risk protects from gamma flip.
Credit: $0.08-$0.10
Max loss: $0.40
BE: $83.90
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if TLT drops below $83.71.
Premium sellers seeking defined risk exposure.
#3
Cash-Secured Put
Sell 2026-05-29 $84.00 cash-secured put
Sell put to collect premium and potentially buy TLT at a lower price.
Why this play: Bullish bias allows premium collection at support; higher capital commitment ranks lower.
Credit: $0.23-$0.29
Max loss: $83.71
BE: $83.71
Mgmt: Monitor support; roll or close if TLT nears $83.71.
Bullish traders willing to hold TLT and collect premium.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF TLT holds above $83.71 and breaks above $86.13 resistance → THEN buy 2026-05-29 $86.00/$86.50 call spread at $0.09-$0.10
IFIF TLT stays above $84.00 and below $86.13 → THEN sell 2026-05-29 $84.00/$83.50 put spread at $0.08-$0.10
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF TLT reaches $86.50 and shows resistance → THEN take profit on bull call spread
Exit Triggers
EXITIF TLT breaks below $83.71 → THEN exit all positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with low vol, capped to $94. Favor bull call spread above $86.13 resistance or put credit spread at $84 support. Risk $83.71 invalidation. Defined risk entries only.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.