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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.76EOD only

Max Pain

$84.50

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.61

0.7% from close

Price Gap

-1.26

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a tight upside bias toward $87 driven by strong dealer pinning at $86-$87; Confidence: 6.5/10.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 6.5 from pre-computed: +1 from GEX pinning (+$1.0B), +1 from spot ~0.3% of MP, -1 where flow is mixed; VIX 19.12 and Avg IV 14.1% modestly supportive of selling premium.

Supports: Largest supporting signals: GEX concentration +$244.0M at $87.00 and +$32.3M at $86.50 (pinning); flat max-pain ladder (~$86) across expirations; narrow expected move (2d bounds $86.22-$87.28).
Conflicts: Conflicts: mixed net premium (-$4.2M) and low IV (ATM 8–11% near-dated) reduce premium-selling edge; structural call OI wall $95-$110 provides distant upside cap.

📌Gamma flip and max pain clustered at ~$86 create a strong pin risk into near expiries

💵Total GEX +$1.0B (dealer long gamma) favors mean reversion and pinning behavior

📉Avg IV 14.1% and ATM IV 8–11% compresses premium; selling needs tight management

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low — near-dated ATM IVs 8.0–9.8% (2–11d) vs Avg IV 14.1% implies vol is subdued and crush risk is limited.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — large positive GEX (+$1.0B) and concentrated GEX at $87/$86.5 make dealers buy convexity and anchor spot to $86–87.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — P/C vol 0.30 and net premium small negative (-$4.2M) with directional call-heavy premium at $89 and $87 but some institutional put buys at higher strikes; overall institutional flow not decisively directional.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $86.75 is at/just above MP ($86–$86.5) and the gamma flip (~$86) — this creates a magnet toward $86–$87 near expiries.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain is flat across multiple expirations (~$86), GEX sign and concentrations persist across the next 2–4 week expiries and expected moves remain narrow, supporting 30–45 DTE positions with weekly overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$86.22$87.28

Pinning at $86.50-$87.00; a break above $87.28 would need flow change at $87.50 GEX node.

Next 1 week

$85.86$87.64

Sustained move below $85.86 threatens acceleration toward $85.06 support band; upside capped by $87.64 and call OI buildup at $87–$90.

Next 2 weeks

$85.06$88.44

Large positive GEX (+$1.0B) keeps moves compressed; decisive break >$88.44 requires heavy call buying past $90 GEX structural wall.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-04-13); $86 (2026-04-15); $86 (2026-04-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $86.22/$87.28; 1w $85.86/$87.64

Support: $86.00 · $85.00 · $83.50

Resistance: $87.00 · $88.00 · $90.00

Gamma flip: ~$86.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 113,897 (0.9% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall at $95-$110 caps long-term upside; deeper put support cluster $80-$82 provides long-tail protection for aggressive shorts.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.0B

DEX: +162.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$86 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 113,897 (0.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term dealers are long gamma concentrated at $86.50 (+32.3M) and $87.00 (+244.0M); if spot falls -2% (~$85.0) dealer hedges would buy bonds (support) and if spot rises +2% (~$88.5) dealers sell duration (resistance) but net positive GEX flattens moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 14.1% vs VIX 19.12 — underlying rates vols are cheap relative to equity vols; near-dated ATM IVs 8–11% are very low.

Term structure: Upward-sloping beyond 2 weeks (ATM 8–11% near-term -> ~10.8% at 18–46d), favoring term-buy for directional exposure and calendars for harvesting front-end decay.

Skew: Skew: cheaper near-OTM puts (e.g., $82.50 IV 25.4% in chain but limited liquidity) and rich call flow at $89; mispriced opportunity: sell higher-IV longer-dated leg vs buy low-IV front-week (reverse calendar) — e.g., sell 5/01 IV ~10.8%, buy 4/20 IV ~8.4% (~+2.4 vol-pt edge).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$4.2M (slight buyer of puts overall) and P/C vol 0.30 indicates call-heavy volume today but overall mixed institutional flow.

Directional prints: 16.8 call 89.5 OTM 2026-04-15 — Unusual print TLT260415C00089500 vol 3,476 vs OI 180 (19.3x) — could be aggressive short-dated call buying or small structured sell; more consistent with tactical call buys given call-heavy net premium at $89. 8.2 put 86.5 OTM 2026-04-15 — TLT260415P00086500 vol 4,984 vs OI 662 (7.5x) — concentrated trading into the $86.50 pin; could be protective puts or dealer-driven hedges; consistent with pin defense activity.

Unusual: 9.1 call 87.5 OTM 2026-04-22 — TLT260422C00087500 vol 3,352 vs OI 481 (7.0x) — fresh call buying just above pin, aligns with upside magnet but low IV suggests cheap directional exposure.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$86 — breach below $85.86 (1w EM lower) can trigger accelerated selling despite positive GEX.

!Near-dated expiries concentrate pin risk (2026-04-15/17) and liquidity gaps around $82–$83 accelerate moves.

!Low IV environment means sudden macro shocks (rates surprise or CPI) can spike IV and blow out short premium positions.

!Mixed flow (call buying at $89 vs put interest at $86.5) could flip directional bias quickly if institutional sellers step in.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	Buy shares TLT 86.75	Limited edge vs holding bonds; vulnerable to rates uptick
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Short shares TLT 86.75	Pinning and positive GEX favor mean reversion; short faces gamma pinch if spot nears $86
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares + sell 2026-04-20 $87.00 call	Caps upside at $87; short call paid by pinning sellers and collects premium in low-IV environment
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 $85.00 put or sell $85/$83 put spread	Positive GEX and MP ~86 reduce downside probability; risk if rates move lower driving TLT higher but short gamma near-term
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-22 $88.00 call (cheap IV)	Low IV makes long calls cheaper but upside limited within EM bounds; needs breakout >$88.44
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-20 $85.00/$83.50 bear put spread	Protects vs downside below $85.86; expensive relative IV but defined risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 $85.00 put / $82.00 put and sell $88.00 call / $90.00 call (wings 1x1) — defined-risk condor	Low IV and strong GEX favor premium decay; risk of VIX spike or breach of $85.86 unleashes skew and losses
Reverse calendar / diagonal (sell longer-dated, buy front)	Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 $87.00 call, buy 2026-04-20 $87.00 call (sell higher-IV long leg at ~10.8%, buy front at ~8.4%, +2.4 vol-pt edge)	Front-week gamma and pin risk; upside/assignment risk on sold longer leg and need to manage if spot rallies >$88
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-01 $85.00 call + sell 2026-04-20 $87.00 call (covered-diagonal flavor)	Time premium capture with positive GEX; requires managing assignment and roll if pin holds
Buy-write diagonal (defensive collar)	Moderate	Buy shares + buy 2026-05-01 $83.00 put + sell 2026-04-20 $87.00 call	Expensive hedging but protects below $85; reduces upside while collecting call premium

Top Plays

Reverse calendar (sell longer-dated, buy front-week)

Sell 2026-05-01 $87.00 call, buy 2026-04-20 $87.00 call

Sells higher-IV longer-dated call (≈10.8%) and buys lower-IV front-week (≈8.4%), capturing ~+2.4 vol-pt edge while benefiting from dealer pinning near $86–$87.

Credit: $0.10-$0.28

Max loss: Debit difference if front-run runs hard against you

BE: Managed via roll; primary risk if spot > $88.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of target; unwind if spot < $85.50 or IV back-month compresses to front-week levels

Traders who want positive theta and defined exposure with ability to roll the short leg

Sell 30–45d put spread (defined-risk income)

Sell 2026-05-01 $85.00 / $83.00 put spread

Uses MP/GEX support to collect premium with defined risk; term aligns with multi-week pin persistence.

Credit: $0.30-$0.60

Max loss: $170.00

BE: $84.70

Mgmt: Take profits at 40-60% of max gain; cut if spot < $84.00 or IV jumps >+3 vol pts

Accounts needing defined-risk income and comfortable holding to 30–45 DTE

Iron condor (near-term decay play)

Sell 2026-04-20 $85.00 put / $82.00 put and sell $88.00 call / $90.00 call

Leverages low IV and strong positive GEX to harvest front-week premium; wings sized to EM bounds and GEX nodes.

Credit: $0.18-$0.35

Max loss: $3182.00

BE: $85.00 - credit and $88.00 + credit

Mgmt: Close at 50-60% max profit or if spot breaches $85.86 (lower EM) or $88.44 (upper 2-week EM)

Experienced short-premium traders with nimble risk controls

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot pins at $86.50 and holds >30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-01 $87.00 call, buy 2026-04-20 $87.00 call (reverse calendar)

IFIf spot retraces to $85.50 and bounces within 2 hours → Sell 2026-05-01 $85.00 put or sell 2026-05-01 $85.00 / $83.00 put spread

IFIf spot trades above $88.50 on 15-min close → Buy 2026-04-22 $88.00 call or widen condor to 2026-04-20 $89/$92 wings

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf IV front-week rises +3 vol pts vs 30d (e.g., 2d IV >11%) → Reduce front-week exposure and consider rolling sold 2026-05-01 calls to 2026-06 expirations

ADJIf spot closes below $85.86 (1-week EM low) → Buy protection: enter 2026-04-20 $85.00/$83.00 bear put spread or buy 2026-04-20 $83.00 put outright

Exit Triggers

EXITIf reverse calendar achieves 60% of max profit → Buy back sold 2026-05-01 $87.00 call and close front-week long leg or roll short to next month

EXITIf IV back-month compresses to front-week (sell IV diff <0.5 vol pts) → Close reverse calendar and redeploy premium elsewhere

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer pinning around $86–$87 favors short longer-dated premium vs buying front-week (reverse-calendar) and defined put spreads; invalidation is a sustained break below $85.86 (1-week EM low). Top plays: sell 5/01 $87 / buy 4/20 $87 reverse calendar (best for multi-week front decay capture), sell 5/01 $85/$83 put spread, and 4/20 iron condor for near-term premium harvest.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.