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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $84.22EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.54

0.6% from close

Price Gap

+0.78

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias as spot ($84.5) sits at max pain with $+651M GEX providing strong pinning support. Bullish flow and low vol reinforce upside within 1w range 83.93-85.43.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 GEX positive pinning, +1 spot near MP, +1 low VIX (16.7); total 9/10.

Supports: Bullish flow, strong dealer gamma (+$651M), spot at max pain ($84), low vol regime.
Conflicts: Resistance at $85 and $86, gamma flip ~$80 if downside breaks.

📌Spot $84.5 tightly pinned to $84 MP across three expiries

🛡️Dealer gamma $+651M supports pinning, flip at $80 far below

📊Low vol (VIX 16.7) and bullish flow align with range-bound upside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low volatility regime; IV likely compressed given VIX 16.7.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma pinning regime – total GEX +$651M, flip only at $80 (5.5% below spot).

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow with net premium positive; call buying dominates.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $84.5, within 0.2% of max pain $84; strong pinning.

Thesis duration: Structural — Max pain $84 for 5/22, 5/27, 5/29 expiries; dealer gamma positive and large; low vol supportive of continued pinning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$83.93$85.43

Key support $83.93 (1w EM guardrail), resistance $85.43 (1w upper).

Next 2 weeks

$83.27$86.09

Support $83.27, resistance $86.09; gamma pinning may cap upside near $85-$86.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $84 (2026-05-22); $84 (2026-05-27); $84 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 1w $83.93/$85.43

Support: $84.50 · $83.27 · $81.00

Resistance: $85.00 · $86.00 · $86.09

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 93,957 (5.5% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $84 across 5/22,5/27,5/29; 1w EM guardrails $83.93/$85.43; support $84.5, $83.27, $81.0; resistance $85.0, $86.0, $86.09; gamma flip $80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+651.1M

DEX: +192.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 93,957 (5.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer gamma long +$651M with flip at $80 (approx, based on put concentration 93,957 contracts 5.5% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV is low relative to its own 20-day history; no direct VIX comparison applicable.

Term structure: Not provided; assume contango in typical bond ETF vol curve.

Skew: Skew not analyzed; put skew likely elevated given put concentration at strikes below $80; no clear opportunity noted.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $23.9M bullish, P/C vol ratio 0.40 favoring calls, OI ratio 0.76 neutral-bullish.

Directional prints: 13.7 call 100 OTM 2027-05-21 — Vol/OI 425.6: massive new position; likely bought for upside speculation. Preferred read: bought. 9.4 call 85 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 5.1: large volume 66k vs OI 12.9k; bought for near-term bullish bet. Preferred read: bought. 28.3 call 79 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 93.2: significant new interest; likely bought for upside leverage. Preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 13.7 call 100 OTM 2027-05-21 — Vol/OI 425.6: extreme ratio, deep OTM call sweep, speculative bullish. 28.3 call 79 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 93.2: ITM call volume surge, possible buy-to-open for upside. 8.8 put 84.5 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 3.7: modest put volume; may be hedging or closing, not directional.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $80 if spot breaks below

!Resistance at $85-$86 could trigger dealer hedging

!Sharp move in rates (e.g., Fed surprise) could break pin

!Low vol regime can lead to rapid expansion on break of range

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $84.00/$83.00 put spread Why now: Selling put credit spread to collect premium within range, defined risk.	If spot breaks below $83, spread may lose; gamma flip at $80 possible.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-05 $85.00/$86.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk bullish bet targeting $85-$86 resistance.	If spot stays below $85, spread expires worthless; resistance at $86.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $84.00 cash-secured put Why now: Pinning support at $84 makes put sale attractive with low vol.	If spot drops below $84, assignment locks in loss; gamma flip risk.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-05 $85.00 call / sell 2026-06-05 $84.00 put Why now: Low vol and pinning make risk reversal cheap with defined risk.	If spot crashes below $84, short put loses; upside capped by call strike.

Top Plays

Sell Cash-Secured Put at $84

Sell 2026-06-05 $84.00 cash-secured put

Sell 2026-06-05 $84 put to collect 0.45-0.56 credit, benefiting from support.

Why this play: Max pain pinning at $84 and low vol make selling put attractive, collecting premium with high probability.

Credit: $0.45-$0.56

Max loss: $83.44

BE: $83.44

Mgmt: Buy back if spot breaks below $84.5 or vol spikes.

Bullish traders seeking income with defined risk.

Bull Call Spread $85/$86

Buy 2026-06-05 $85.00/$86.00 call spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $85 call and sell $86 call for net debit 0.25-0.30.

Why this play: Targets resistance $85-$86 with defined risk, leveraging bullish flow.

Debit: $0.25-$0.30

Max loss: $0.30

BE: $85.30

Mgmt: Exit if spot fails to hold $84.5 or vol drops further.

Traders expecting moderate upside within range.

Put Credit Spread $84/$83

Sell 2026-06-05 $84.00/$83.00 put spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $84 put, buy $83 put for net credit 0.24-0.30.

Why this play: Defined risk, collects premium, and aligns with pinning support.

Credit: $0.24-$0.30

Max loss: $0.70

BE: $83.70

Mgmt: Close if spot nears $84.5 or IV increases.

Conservative traders seeking premium with buffer.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds above $84.5 with volume supporting → Then enter bull call spread $85/$86 (buy $85 call, sell $86 call) for net debit 0.25-0.30

IFIf spot stays near $84 with low volatility → Then sell cash-secured put at $84 for credit 0.45-0.56

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot reaches $86 or breaks below $84.5 → Then close bullish positions (call spread and put sale)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with max pain pinning at $84 and low vol. Key support $84.5, resistance $85-$86. Favor selling put at $84 or bull call spread $85/$86. Invalidation at $84.5 break.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.