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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $84.68EOD only

Max Pain

$83.50

Next expiry May 27, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.75

0.9% from close

Price Gap

-1.18

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with a strong pin to $86/$87 (upside magnet to $87.00); Confidence: 6.0/10 (base). Primary supports: large positive GEX (+$987.3M) concentrated at $87.00 and $86.50, low IV (ATM 14.6%) making premium selling cheaper, and MP clustered at $86 across near expiries; conflict: net premium outflow -$12.4M and mixed flow that shows some call buying at $87.00/$87.50.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 6.0/10 per pre-computed: +987.3M GEX (pinning) and spot ~0.8% from MP support the pin; -1 from contradictory flow (net premium negative) partially offsets; no overriding catalyst seen.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $86.50 and $86.00 plus MP $86 provide near-term put support; EM guardrail lower bounds ($86.23/$85.82) reinforce buying below spot.
Conflicts: Net premium negative (-$12.4M) and P/C volume 0.84 indicate mixed directional buying; large distant call OI ($95-$110) is structural tail that could cap rallies.

📌GEX pin centered at $87.00 (+$225.5M) is the dominant short-term magnet

📉IV is low (Avg IV 14.6%; ATM 1d 12.5%) — premium selling favored but small expected moves

⚠️Gamma flip ~ $86 — sub-$86 moves reduce dealer buying and can accelerate downside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low vol regime: Avg IV 14.6% and ATM term structure ~9–12% near-term — favors premium-selling and range strategies.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: very large positive GEX (+$987.3M) concentrated at $87.00/$86.50/$86.00 — dealers will buy dips into these levels, increasing mean-reversion.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: net premium -$12.4M with P/C vol 0.84 and P/C OI 0.61 — some institutional put buying but material call flow into $87/$87.5 offsets; interpret as two-way positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $86.70 is within 0.8% of Max Pain $86–$87 across expiries, creating a balanced pinning environment that encourages short premium around the pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain stays ~ $86–$87 across expirations and GEX sign/locations persist across the 2–6 week expiries (GEX concentrations at same strikes and MP flat), supporting ~30–45 DTE trades with weeklies as tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$86.23$87.17

Pin at $87.00 (+$225.5M GEX) and 2d EM $86.23–$87.17; break below $86.23 would signal loss of pin.

Next 1 week

$85.82$87.57

MP $86 and GEX concentrations at $86.50/$87.00; sustained move above $87.57 would require option-driven buying or macro shock.

Next 2 weeks

$85.18$88.21

2-week EM top $88.21; a push >$88.21 would need break of $87.50/$88.00 GEX layers ($+30.3M at $88.00) and sustained net call demand.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-04-10); $86 (2026-04-13); $86 (2026-04-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $86.23/$87.17; 1w $85.82/$87.57

Support: $86.00 · $86.50 · $85.00

Resistance: $87.00 · $87.50 · $88.00

Gamma flip: ~$86.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 114,614 (0.8% below spot)

Structural: Distant call OI wall at $95–$110 caps major rallies; put floor concentrated at $80 signals material structural support well below spot for larger risk-on moves.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+987.3M

DEX: +168.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$86 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 114,614 (0.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-the-money positive gamma concentrated at $87.00 (+$225.5M), $86.50 (+$42.4M) and $86.00 (+$32.7M) — dealers will buy on dips into $86–$87 and sell into rallies above those pins; if spot moves down ~2% (~$85.00) dealer hedging support decays and downside can accelerate.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is low (Avg IV 14.6%) and term ATM 1d 12.5% vs longer-dated ~11–12% — no rich VIX-style premium to harvest.

Term structure: Flat-to-slightly-inverted near-term (1d 12.5% → 4d 9.1% → 15d 10.9%) with a kink around immediate expiries reflecting pin/expiry dynamics.

Skew: Skew flattened around ATM; opportunity: sell 5/22 calls (ATM ~11.7%) vs buy 4/13 calls (ATM ~9.4%) as a reverse calendar to capture the vol differential.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$12.4M (net sell of underlying premium), P/C vol 0.84 — mixed but leaning toward call demand near $87.

Directional prints: 9.4 call 87 OTM 2026-04-13 — Large flow: Vol 5,768 vs OI 1,343 (4.3x) — could be buy-to-open calls pushing pin or dealer conversion hedging; more consistent with call-buying into the pin given other call flow. 9.9 call 87.5 OTM 2026-04-15 — Flow: Vol 908 vs OI 170 (5.3x) — fresh call activity near $87.5 supports short-term upside magnet or dealer hedging. 32.8 put 66 OTM 2026-05-15 — Large OI/vol (2,363 vol vs OI 154) at deep OTM $66 — tail-protection buying or complex positioning; both interpretations possible, more consistent with protection/portfolio hedges.

Unusual: 9.4 call 87 OTM 2026-04-13 — High relative volume 5,768 on 4/13 87C — directional call interest concentrated at the pin. 9.9 call 87.5 OTM 2026-04-15 — Significant call prints at 87.5 on 4/15 supporting short-term upside targeting.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~ $86: a quick drop below $86 removes dealer dip-buying and can accelerate losses.

!Expiry clustering: consecutive expiries with MP $86–$87 into 4/10–4/15 create pin-release volatility at each expiry.

!Low IV: thin volatility leaves little premium cushion; sudden macro shock can spike IV and blow short premium positions.

!Large distant call OI ($95–$110) could act as supply if dealers delta-hedge call sellers into rallies.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	Buy TLT shares at market	Low expected move and pinning limit upside; better for long-term duration views.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Short TLT at market / hedge size around $87.00	Dealer buy-the-dip gamma near $86–$87 likely to slow declines; short pain if pin holds.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares + Sell 2026-05-22 $87 call	Capped upside at $87; theta capture limited by low IV; assignment risk near pin.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 $86 put or sell $86/$85 put spread	Gamma flip <$86 and IV spike on downside; defined risk if using spread.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-13 $87 call (weeklies) for directional upside	Low IV but small expected move makes calls expensive on theta; best as speculative overlay.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 $85 put / sell 2026-04-24 $82.5 put (if available) — defined bear spread	Pinning makes downside less likely near-term; requires larger move to pay off.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 86/82.5 put wing x 88/90 call wing (wider call wing to structural cap)	IV low so limited premium; large macro gap or expiry pin release can break wings.
Calendar / reverse calendar (sell longer-dated)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-22 $87 call (IV ~11.7%) / Buy 2026-04-13 $87 call (IV 9.4%) — reverse calendar (sell higher-IV longer-dated)	Selling the higher-IV longer-dated leg captures ~+2.3 vol-pt edge but exposes you to short long-term gamma and assignment/roll risk; close or roll if pin breaks.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-12-18 $87 call / Sell 2026-04-24 $87 call (diagonal)	Requires time for directional move; low IV reduces carry but positive GEX supports mean-reversion.

Top Plays

Sell 4/24 $86/$85 put spread

Sell 2026-04-24 $86/$85 put spread

Tactical short put spread into the pin: GEX pinning at $86–$87 and low IV favor collecting premium with dealer support into $86; spread defines downside at $85.

Credit: $0.14-$0.30

Max loss: $86.00

BE: $85.86

Mgmt: Take 60% of max profit at 30% of width filled; cut if spot < $85.50 or VIX > 20.

Defined-risk premium collectors who accept being long TLT at $85 if assigned.

Reverse calendar: Sell 5/22 $87 call / Buy 4/13 $87 call

Sell 2026-05-22 $87 call / Buy 2026-04-13 $87 call (reverse calendar)

Sell the higher-IV longer-dated 5/22 call (~11.7%) and buy the lower-IV near-term 4/13 call (9.4%) to capture ~+2.3 vol-pt edge while benefiting from pin decay in the short leg.

Credit: $0.04-$0.12

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close if spot moves outside $85.82–$87.57 or if short leg IV retraces to below near-term IV; monitor for assignment on sold long-dated leg.

Theta/vol arbitrage traders who can manage roll risk and short long-dated exposure.

Buy 2026-06-18 $87 put hedge / diagonal (30+ DTE)

Buy 2026-06-18 $87 put (or buy 06/18 $87 put, sell 04/24 $86 put to finance)

Long-dated put as portfolio tail hedge and to profit from prolonged rates move; extra time buys protection for multi-week structural risks and distant skew

Debit: $0.80-$2.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Trim if TLT < $85 on strong volume or if IV spikes > 25% (take partial profit); roll down if sustained weakness below $85.

Traders wanting 30+ DTE protection; better for portfolio hedging than pure speculation.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades and holds $87.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-22 $87 call and/or sell 2026-04-24 $86/$85 put spread

IFIf spot tags $86.50 and bounces within 60 minutes → Sell 2026-04-24 $86/$85 put spread

IFIf 2026-04-13 expiry shows persistent short-call delta accumulation at $87 (OTM call OI increasing) → Enter reverse calendar: Sell 5/22 $87 call / Buy 4/13 $87 call

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot < $86.00 (gamma flip) → Hedge short premium: buy 2026-04-24 $86 call or roll put spreads lower to 85/84

ADJIf IV (ATM) rises above 20% intraday → Buy back short premium (exit calendars/condors) and switch to long-dated protection (buy 2026-06-18 $87 puts)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf trade P/L reaches 60% of max profit on sold put spread or iron condor → Close the position to harvest gains

EXITIf spot falls and holds below EM 2d lower bound $86.23 for 3 consecutive 15-min candles → Flatten short premium and buy 2026-06-18 $87 put for protection

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: mean-reversion into the $86–$87 pin; invalidation below $86.00 (gamma flip) which removes dealer support; regime favors short premium around the pin (sell defined-risk puts/condors and sell higher-IV longer-dated leg via reverse calendar) and one 30+ DTE hedge for tail risk (06/18 puts).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.