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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.10EOD only

Max Pain

$84.00

Next expiry May 27, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.39

0.5% from close

Price Gap

-1.10

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 26, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a pin magnet at $86-$87; confidence: 6.0/10 (base). Biggest supports: large positive GEX (+$1.3B) concentrated at $87.00 and $86.50, low IV (ATM ~14%) making premium selling attractive; conflicts: mixed flow and small net negative premium (-$18.0M) suggesting some put-buying pressure.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 6.0; +1 from large positive GEX pinning at ~$86-$87, +1 from spot ~0.5% of MP, -1 because net premium flow is slightly negative and flow is mixed; IV low (ATM 14%) supports short premium but reduces absolute credit.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $87.00 (+$338.9M) and $86.50 (+$50.2M), max pain $86-$86.50 across expiries.
Conflicts: Net premium -$18.0M and P/C vol 0.73 indicate some buy-side put activity; Unusual prints show concentrated put demand at 4/15 and 5/08.

📍**Pin at $86-$87** across expirations; dealers long gamma near spot — favors mean reversion

💸**IV low (ATM ~14%)** — short premium is the primary edge, buying vol has little tailwind

🧭**2d EM $86.24-$87.59** — tight expected move, good environment for defined-risk premium sells

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low vol regime (Avg IV 14.0%, ATM short-dates 10–13%) — favors premium selling and range trades.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — large positive GEX (+$1.3B) concentrated at $87.00/$86.50 makes the spot magnetized and dealer hedging will supply mean-reverting flows into 1–2% moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — P/C vol 0.73 and net premium -$18.0M show targeted put demand but not enough to overcome dealer pinning flows.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $86.92 sits at Max Pain (~$86-$87) so expect pinning; slight put concentration just below spot increases downside sensitivity if breached.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain and GEX pin persist across multiple expirations (flat MP ~$86-$87 through May), so prefer 30–45 DTE for core trades and weeklies for tactical income.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$86.24$87.59

Holding above $86.24 keeps dealers buying dips; break below $86.00 flips gamma and accelerates downside.

Next 1 week

$86.09$87.75

Weekly expiries create pin risk; move beyond $87.75 needs macro/order flow impulse.

Next 2 weeks

$85.66$88.18

Sustained break above $88.18 requires strong call flow or macro shock; structural call OI $95–$110 caps large rallies.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-04-08); $86 (2026-04-10); $86 (2026-04-13)

EM guardrails: 2d $86.24/$87.59; 1w $86.09/$87.75

Support: $86.00 · $85.00 · $80.00

Resistance: $87.00 · $88.00 · $90.00

Gamma flip: ~$86.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 115,330 (1.1% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall at $95-$110 caps large rallies; put floor concentrated at $80 provides deep support for longer-dated hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.3B

DEX: +172.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$86 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 115,330 (1.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Heavy dealer long gamma between $86.50–$87.00 (GEX +$338.9M at $87.00, +$50.2M at $86.50) — dealers will buy on 1–2% dips and sell on 1–2% pops, damping trends until a flip below ~$86 removes support.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Average IV 14.0% — low absolute IV so selling premium yields smaller credits but favorable theta in this regime.

Term structure: Flat to mildly sloping with short-dated ATM 2d=13.4% -> 30d ~11.9%; small front/near-term dislocations create calendar opportunities.

Skew: Modest put skew; 4/15 ATM ~11.2% vs 5/08 ATM ~13.1% — sell higher-IV longer-dated leg and buy lower-IV near leg (reverse calendar) captures the differential.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$18.0M (slight net put dollars), P/C vol 0.73 indicates more call volume but targeted put buying in specific strikes.

Directional prints: 11.2 put 87 ITM 4/15 — 4/15 $87 put: Vol 3,839 vs OI 197 (19.5x) — likely institutional protective buying or short-covering; consistent with mixed flow. 13.1 put 85.5 OTM 5/08 — 5/08 $85.50 put: Vol 7,471 vs OI 409 (18.3x) — multi-week protection demand; more consistent with tail-hedging than directional shorting.

Unusual: 13.8 put 83.5 OTM 5/22 — 5/22 $83.50 put: Vol 9,625 vs OI 165 (58.3x) — clear long-dated tail-hedge accumulation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip around $86 would remove dealer buying and accelerate downside

!Weekly expiries (4/10–4/17) concentrate pin risk and can force short-term deltas to unwind

!Macro shocks (rates, auctions, CPI surprises) can spike IV despite low baseline and blow out short premium positions

!Long-dated put accumulation (5/22 $83.50) signals institutional tail-hedging that could flip flow under stress

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	Buy TLT stock	Low IV environment; better risk-adjusted to use options for directional exposure.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Short TLT stock intraday around $88.00 resistance	Dealer long gamma tends to push mean reversion; risk of quick rip if macro surprise occurs.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares, sell 5/08 $88.00 call	Caps upside at $88; IV low so premium is limited.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/08 $85.50/$85.00 put spread	Gamma flip below $86 can hurt; put floor $80 supports deeper layers.
Long calls	Weak	Buy 30–45 DTE 5/08 $88 call for directional upside	Low IV reduces directional leverage; poor payoff if no macro catalyst.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 5/08 $85.50 put, sell 5/08 $83.50 put (bear put spread)	Defined risk but needs macro catalyst to outperform short premium strategies.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/15 $87.00/$85.00 put spread; sell 4/15 $88.00/$90.00 call spread	IV low limits credit; macro move or gamma flip invalidates wings.
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/08 $87.00 put (higher IV ~13.1%), buy 4/15 $87.00 put (lower IV ~11.2%) — reverse calendar (sell longer-dated leg) capturing ~+1.9 vol-pt differential	Exposed if front-week IV surges or pin releases early; requires management of assignment/rolls.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 6–9 month $85 LEAPS, sell monthly $87 calls (45–90 DTE)	Requires capital and time; benefits from continued pin and low carry costs.

Top Plays

Defined-risk put spread (multi-week)

Sell 5/08 $85.50/$85.00 put spread

Collects premium into dealer pin; GEX and multi-week MP support decay.

Credit: $0.25-$0.40

Max loss: $49.75

BE: $85.25

Mgmt: Take 60% of max profit; cut at spot <$85.00 or IV spike >+4 vol pts.

Traders seeking defined-risk premium collection over 30–45 DTE

Short-dated iron condor (tactical weekly)

Sell 4/15 $87.00/$85.00 put spread and sell 4/15 $88.00/$90.00 call spread

Uses tight 2–7d EM ($86.24–$87.91) and concentrated GEX at $87 to collect quick theta.

Credit: $0.35-$0.55

Max loss: $165.65

BE: Lower: ~86.65 Upper: ~90.55

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max gain; hedge or close if spot breaches $86.00 or IV >+5 vol pts.

Active traders seeking weekly income and willing to manage into expiry

Reverse calendar put (vol-arb multi-week)

Sell 5/08 $87.00 put, buy 4/15 $87.00 put (sell higher-IV longer-dated leg, buy lower-IV near leg)

Captures ~+1.9 vol-pt edge (sell 5/08 IV ~13.1%, buy 4/15 IV ~11.2%); benefits if pin persists and front-week pin holds.

Credit: $0.10-$0.45

Max loss: Limited to intrinsic exposure of short leg minus net credit

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Buy to close if spot < $85.50 or if longer-dated IV falls below front-week IV; roll short leg wider if pin holds.

Traders wanting theta with longer-dated collected premium but protection from near-term decay

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $86.50 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 5/08 $85.50/$85.00 put spread

IFIf spot is between $86.50 and $87.00 at 10:00ET on a non-news day → Sell 4/15 iron condor: $87/$85 put spread and $88/$90 call spread

IFIf 5/08 $87 put IV exceeds 4/15 $87 put IV by >2 vol pts → Sell 5/08 $87 put and buy 4/15 $87 put (reverse calendar)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot falls below $86.00 → Reduce short put width or buy protection at $83.50 (buy 5/22 $83.50 put) or close short-dated shorts

ADJIf spot rises above $88.20 with >$1M call flow at $90 strike → Trim upside call exposure and consider buying 4/15 $90 call as hedge

Exit Triggers

EXITIf trade reaches 60% of max profit → Take off 50–100% of position depending on size (close or roll)

EXITIf ATM IV (7–30d) jumps by >4 vol pts or spot <$85.00 → Close short premium and buy protection (long puts at $83.50 or $82.50)

Tactical Summary

Mean-reversion around the $86–$87 pin is the primary thesis; invalidation is a sustained break below $86.00 (gamma flip) which removes dealer support. Regime favors short premium (defined-risk put spreads, weekly iron condors) and reverse calendar structures to harvest term-structure differential; put spreads for defined risk (best for most accounts), weekly condors for tactical income, reverse calendars for managed vol-arb.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.