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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.90EOD only
Max Pain
$17.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.66
4.2% from close
Price Gap
+1.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
45
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.49
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SOFI 76 days from earnings; bullish flow and high IV offer optionality, but spot far from max pain ($16) and IV elevated.

Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -1 spot 7.2% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Bullish call flow at $15.5 strikes suggests upside expectations, supported by 80% historical beat rate.
📊Net premium +$3.96M, P/C vol ratio 0.49 favoring calls.
⚠️Spot 7.2% below max pain $16; potential pin action.
📈Historical beat rate 80% but no move data.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 78,909 (2.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (76 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (2d): ±$0.55 (3.6%)
  • 2026-05-22 (9d): ±$1.02 (6.7%)
  • 2026-05-29 (16d): ±$1.31 (8.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping; 2d IV implies ±3.6%, 9d ±6.7%, 16d ±8.6%.

Crush estimate: Estimated 50-70% IV crush post-event, typical for high-IV names.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No historical move data provided; beat rate 80% suggests favorable outcomes.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish given strong beat rate and bullish flow.

Key Levels

1$15.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $14.76/$15.86; 1w $14.29/$16.33
3Max pain pins: $16 (2026-05-15); $16 (2026-05-22); $17 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume at $15.5 strike for May 15 and May 22 expiries.

Indicates bullish positioning ahead of expected near-term movement.

Large put buying at $13 (Jun) and $10 (Nov) strikes.

May represent hedging or bearish tail risk bets at lower levels.

Strategies

Iron Condor $14/$12.50 Put & $18/$20 Call
Sell 2026-05-22 $14.00/$12.50 put wing and $18.00/$20.00 call wing
Credit: $0.08-$0.10
Max loss: $1.90
Max gain: $0.10
BE: 13.90 / 18.10
Trigger: Exit at 50% max gain or before earnings; adjust if spot breaks $15 or $18. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.; long_call: Wide spread (67%).
Only eligible candidate; harvests premium near support with upside bias from bullish flow and high IV.
Outperforms: Sell put spread below support and call spread above resistance, capturing IV crush and time decay.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk given high IV and spot below MP.
!Volatility decay as earnings approach without catalyst.

What to Watch

?Whether spot holds above $15 support.
?IV expansion or contraction as earnings nears.
?Further unusual flow in call or put side.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.