thetaOwl
HomeOptionsSOFIReports

SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $19.50EOD only
Max Pain
$17.50
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.02
5.2% from close
Price Gap
-2.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
39
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 20, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence pinning setup into earnings with strong put concentration ~20% below spot; expected limited directional surprise but sizable IV crush risk.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20; override: Flow/GEX alignment and historical beat consistency
Most important: GEX/flow aligned with pinning at $18 max pain and concentrated put OI below spot.
📌Pinning signal: concentrated put OI and $18 max pain
⚠️Large IV disparity — front-month crush vs very high IV on some long-dated calls

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,809 (20.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (7 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (3d): ±$1.01 (5.4%)
  • 2026-05-01 (10d): ±$2.41 (12.8%)
  • 2026-05-08 (17d): ±$2.75 (14.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-month elevated (~75%+ IV on near-dated puts/calls); long-dated skittish (extreme IV on deep OTM calls).

Crush estimate: Material crush: front-week/front-month IV likely to drop substantially post-earnings.

Skew: Put-heavy skew into $18 area; extreme skew on certain low strikes (very high IV on long-dated $2 calls).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Past moves modestly tracked or exceeded expected; implied moves (5–15%) match realized volatility historically.

Directional bias: Historical beat rate 100% (4/4) — slight bullish tilt but limited given pinning dynamics.

Key Levels

1$15.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $17.82/$19.84; 1w $16.42/$21.24
3Max pain pins: $18 (2026-04-24); $18 (2026-05-01); $18 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Put OI concentration ~70,809 (20.3% below spot) with max pain at $18.

Supports pinning near $18 and gamma-driven resistance to large moves down/up.

Net premium inflow positive; unusual large-volume long-dated deep-OTM calls with extreme IV.

Directional lottery/hedge activity on tails increases event tail-risk.

Strategies

Earnings iron condor
Sell 2026-05-01 $18.00/$16.00 put wing and $19.50/$21.50 call wing
Credit: $1.02-$1.25
Max loss: $0.75
Max gain: $1.25
BE: 16.75 / 20.75
Trigger: Close or roll if price nears wings or IV collapses post-print; trim into fast moves
Caps downside of pinning plus sells rich front-month IV into earnings
Outperforms: Short 5/1 18/16 put wing and 19.5/21.5 call wing harvests elevated near-term premium while limiting max loss if price breaks wings.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Put diagonal (defined hurt)
Sell 2026-05-01 $18.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $17.00 put
Debit: $0.23-$0.29
Max loss: $0.29
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Let short leg decay into earnings; consider buying back if underlying pins below 18 or IV shifts
Front-month put IV >> back-month — sells earnings exposure while long month provides crash protection
Outperforms: Sell 5/1 18 put, buy 6/18 17 put to collect premium, limit downside exposure and positive carry.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle (high risk)
Sell 2026-05-01 $18.00 put + sell $19.50 call
Credit: $1.55-$1.90
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.90
BE: 16.10 / 21.40
Trigger: Require tight risk controls; close into sizable deltas or post-print IV collapse
Max premium but unlimited upside risk and large IV crush exposure
Outperforms: Sell 5/1 18 put and 19.5 call to exploit rich front-month IV across the print.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV crush risk post-event
!Pinning could limit large moves but increases short-term squeezes near $18
!Tail exposure from extreme-IV long-dated calls

What to Watch

?Price reaction vs $18 max pain and $17.82/$19.84 2d guardrails
?Front-month IV change pre- vs post-print
?Unusual prints on deep-OTM calls for tail blowouts
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.