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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $19.03EOD only
Max Pain
$17.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.47
2.4% from close
Price Gap
-2.03
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

7.5/10. Best strategy: harvest elevated front-cycle call premium with defined-risk structures (put credit spreads or iron condors) or, for volatility buyers, a near-term long straddle into the April 28 earnings. Key risk: a guidance-driven directional gap that breaks dealer pinning around $19/$17 and renders short premium trades vulnerable.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Dealer GEX is large and positive (+$218.7M) with concentrated pinning near $19/$18. That creates an amplified pin-magnet dynamic — the path into earnings matters more than the headline surprise.
📈GEX concentration of +$92.2M at $19.00 — expect pinning pressure around $19 (1.1% from spot) into the event.
⚠️Historical beat rate 100% (4/4) biases toward upside surprises, but dealer positioning and call walls at $20–$22 create resistance even on positive prints.
📅Earnings on 2026-04-28 (13d) — front expirations 2026-04-24 and 2026-05-01 are the primary structures to trade around the event.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,127 (20.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (13 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (2d): ±$0.78 (4.2%)
  • 2026-04-24 (9d): ±$1.51 (8.0%)
  • 2026-05-01 (16d): ±$2.63 (14.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-dated IV is elevated into nearby expirations: 2026-04-17 ATM 55.8% then 2026-04-24 ATM 60.0% with a pronounced jump to 2026-05-01 ATM 80.9% (kink around the post-earnings May expiry).

Crush estimate: Medium-High crush risk for positions crossing the 2026-04-28 event: expect a material front-expiry IV drop after release (IV differential shows ~20+ vol points between 04-24 and 05-01 tenors), so long vol will materially lose value post-print while short vol can realize premium if directional gap is muted.

Skew: Downside put concentration exists around $15-$16 but flow and OI tilt heavily bullish (net premium +$53.2M, P/C vol 0.19). Call-side OI wall $20-$25 and heavy call premium flow at $19-$20 suggests upside resistance where sellers may defend.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: SOFI has a history of beats (100% last 4 quarters) and has tended to trade within or slightly above implied expected moves; recent quarters produced muted outsized gaps versus EM despite positive surprises.

Directional bias: Slight upside bias into prints given 4/4 quarterly beats and current bullish flow; however, positive GEX increases pinning risk near call-rich strikes rather than guaranteeing rallies above heavy call walls.

Key Levels

1$15.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $18.01/$19.57; 1w $17.29/$20.30
3Max pain pins: $17 (2026-04-17); $16 (2026-04-24); $17 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated premium and OI on the call side at $19/$20/$22 with $19.00 CALL OI=95,088 and heavy call net premium at $20.00 ($14.3M net).

Market participants and dealers have sold/positioned around those strikes — increases pinning pressure near $19 and creates resistance from call sellers defending those levels.

Large put OI clusters at $15.00 and $16.00 (put floor) and GEX flip near ~$15.

Significant down-side gamma relief exists below ~$15 which could accelerate downside beyond the gamma flip; near-term dealer protection likely until that flip point.

Near-term GEX concentration: +$92.2M at $19.00 and +$16.5M at $18.00.

Strong short-delta hedging sensitivity near $19/$18 — small moves toward those levels could draw dealer flows that amplify pinning.

Strategies

Buy the post-print gapper: May-01 ATM straddle
Buy 2026-05-01 $19.00 put + buy $19.00 call
Debit: $2.37-$2.90
Max loss: $2.90
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 16.10 / 21.90
Trigger: Take partial profits on a large one-sided move pre-crush; cut losses quickly if post-print IV collapses and price stays inside the EM.
Pure volatility play that benefits from a surprise outside the implied move or volatile guidance — front-mid term IV skew and the jump into 05-01 IV (80.9%) creates convexity for a directional move.
Outperforms: Purchase ATM call+put in the 2026-05-01 expiration to capture a move larger than the ±$2.63 EM; this expresses a binary gamma/vega play rather than trying to pick direction.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Defined-risk iron condor across 1-week EM
Sell 2026-04-24 $17.50/$14.50 put wing and $20.50/$22.00 call wing
Credit: $0.28-$0.35
Max loss: $2.65
Max gain: $0.35
BE: 17.15 / 20.85
Trigger: Close before or immediately after the release if price runs to a wing; widen or roll wings if IV sells off rapidly and you want to preserve premium. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (100%).
Captures two-sided premium between $17.29–$20.30 with defined wings using the 04-24 expiry, aligning short strikes with heavy OI clusters and dealer pinning to maximize probability of decay.
Outperforms: Sell a short put near the lower 1-week EM and a short call near the upper 1-week EM, buy wings further out to cap risk. This harvests front premium with a known loss profile if a guidance shock breaks the range.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk is primary: guidance or macro headlines can void dealer pinning and move price beyond the $15 gamma flip quickly.
!IV crush will materially hurt long-vol positions: expect a sizeable vol drop after the April 28 print, particularly for front-dated expirations.
!Liquidity is adequate at near-spot strikes ($17–$20) but thins on far wings; avoid over-sized positions in low-OI strikes.
!Positive GEX (+$218.7M) amplifies pinning dynamics — small net flows near $18–$19 can force hedging that exaggerates intraday moves.
!Heavy call-side premium flow (net premium +$53.2M) means short-call pain on a large upside gap; short premium players should size accordingly.

What to Watch

?IV slope between 2026-04-24 and 2026-05-01 — a rising bid into 05-01 increases value of buying vega; collapsing slope favors selling premium.
?Price action relative to the GEX pins: moves into $19.00 (pin magnet) or holds above $17.00 (support) will guide whether dealers need to hedge.
?Unusual activity on the $18.50-$20.00 call cluster and any sudden increase in put flow at $15-$16 that would indicate protective buying.

Read the Earnings analysis for SOFI for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.