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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $18.22EOD only
Max Pain
$16.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.14
6.3% from close
Price Gap
-2.22
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
86
High premium
P/C OI
0.49
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

SOFI is in a High-vol, Pinning regime with dealers long gamma (GEX +$167.3M) and bullish flow concentrated in calls at $17-$20. Best strategy: directional or volatility-buy tied to May-01 expiry (captures earnings) or selling premium inside the tight EM if you want to harvest pinning fade. Key risk: gap risk from a guidance-driven move that can defeat dealer pinning and push price outside the tight EM rails.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.4
Most important: Dealer GEX concentration at $19.00 (+$43.8M) and heavy call premium flow at $17-$18 — watch whether IV and order flow continue pushing toward the $19 pin prior to earnings.
📅Earnings window: 2026-04-28 (days until 14) — use May-01 expiry to contain the event.
📌GEX magnet at $19.00 (+$43.8M) — significant dealer pinning/resistance near $19.
📈Historical EPS: 4 straight beats in provided history — skews tilt to upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Below $15 dealers amplify moves; current put concentration (71,092 at $15) underlies flip ~ $15

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (14 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-01 (17d): : : ±$2.29 (12.8%) [$15.62 - $20.19]

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated IV is lower (2026-04-17 ATM 50.8% / 2026-04-24 ATM 52.8%) while the expiry that straddles earnings (2026-05-01 ATM 71.8%) is materially higher — a front-loaded term kink into the May-01 expiry.

Crush estimate: ~15-25 vol pts (post-earnings ATM could retreat from ~71.8% toward the mid-40s/50s in absence of a shock)

Skew: Puts cheaper vs calls in flow (P/C vol and OI ratios 0.42/0.55) but call concentration and premium flow at $17-$20 makes calls rich; skew favors upside exposure via calls.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters showed EPS beats in the provided history)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit realized move magnitudes provided; historical surprises are uniformly positive which biases outcomes toward upside

Directional bias: Positive (recent EPS surprises have been beats only)

Key Levels

1$16.00
2$17.00
3$18.00
4$19.00
5EM: $15.62-$20.19 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call premium flow at $17.00 (Net $3,546,195) and $18.00 (Net $3,521,675).

Large directional/call-leaning bets concentrated right around spot — market participants are positioned for upside into earnings and are providing the dealers the premium to pin toward $17-$19.

Very large OI at $19.00 CALL (89,884 OI) and $22.00 CALL (88,854 OI).

$19 is a structural resistance/pin target given GEX +$43.8M at that strike; sustained buying could create a magnet toward $19 ahead of expiry.

Strategies

Sell short iron condor (income/pin play)
Sell 17/16 put vertical + sell 20/22 call vertical, expiry 2026-05-01
Credit: $1.00-$1.50
Max loss: $5.00
Max gain: $1.50
BE: 16.00 / 20.50
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings if IV for May1 remains elevated and price is inside $16.59-$19.22 1w EM
Fat call premium and large GEX at $19 create a pinning/harvestable structure. Use defined risk to capture decaying elevated IV into/after earnings.
Outperforms: SOFI stays inside the 1-week EM rails (little net move) and dealer pinning holds near $17-$19
Underperforms: A >7% guidance-driven gap or a large beat/miss moves spot beyond EM rails; also underperforms if skew compresses and calls overtake puts rapidly
Long straddle (volatility play)
Buy 18 straddle (18C + 18P) expiry 2026-05-01
Debit: $2.90-$3.50
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 18 : 18 : 14.50 / 21.50
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV hasn't already repriced above ~80% for May-01 straddle
High longer-dated IV (71.8% at May1) prices a large move; buying a straddle captures either-direction gap/volatility that outstrips the EM.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >25% (large beat/miss or guidance swing) and IV stays elevated into event
Underperforms: Stock pins in the $17-$19 band and IV collapses sharply post-announcement
Directional bullish call spread
Buy 17C / Sell 20C vertical, expiry 2026-05-01
Debit: $1.40-$2.10
Max loss: $2.10
Max gain: $1.90
BE: $18.40
Trigger: Enter if pre-earnings flow continues to show call accumulation at $17-$19 and you want limited risk bullish exposure
Concentrated call OI at $19 and heavy $17-$18 call flow suggest asymmetric upside; a vertical limits gamma and cost while keeping upside participation.
Outperforms: Stock gaps modestly higher into $19-$20 where calls are concentrated; captures upside without full straddle cost
Underperforms: Weak beat or pin toward $17/$16 and IV crush removes value from calls

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM 17d ±$2.29 (12.8%) but guidance or surprise could produce outsized gaps that overwhelm dealer pinning.
!IV crush: Structural term kink (May1 ATM 71.8%) implies meaningful IV compression post-earnings; long volatility positions rely on realized move exceeding priced expectation.
!Liquidity: Chains are liquid around 16-20 strikes (large OI), but wider expiries and less-liquid strikes may have wide spreads — prefer strikes with visible bid/ask like 17/18/19/20.
!Sizing: Given high GEX and dealer pinning, use smaller sizing on directional plays to account for dealer-driven squeezes; iron condors should be sized to accommodate a full-width loss if pin fails.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into Apr28–Apr29 (watch May-01 ATM IV 71.8% and moves toward it)
?Unusual call flow at $19 and sustained buying at $17-$18 (will reinforce pin to $19 or push past it)
?Put buying or large block puts (watch $16/$15 clusters) that could shift dealer hedging and flip gamma
?Any guidance language in the quarter preview that could create gap risk
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.