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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $19.43EOD only
Max Pain
$17.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.18
6.1% from close
Price Gap
-2.43
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.53
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence pinning setup into earnings with bullish flow and concentrated put OI near spot; market slightly weak but GEX supports pin near $18–20.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 11.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: market/regime and flow alignment from input
Most important: Flow and GEX are aligned toward pinning around $18–20, increasing likelihood of limited post-earnings directional gaps.
📌Pinning pressure centered ~$18–20 from concentrated put OI and positive GEX
⚠️Elevated short-dated IV — expect meaningful post-earnings crush if backtested moves repeat
🔎100% historical beat rate (4/4) — informative but small sample; not decisive

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,739 (23.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (8 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (4d): ±$1.02 (5.2%)
  • 2026-05-01 (11d): ±$2.39 (12.3%)
  • 2026-05-08 (18d): ±$2.68 (13.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated IV elevated (~55–84%) into 4–11 day expiries; longer tail shows extreme idiosyncratic IV on deep-OTM calls.

Crush estimate: Moderate-to-large IV crush (expected >30% for near-dated expiries).

Skew: Put skew and high IV on $20 and nearby puts, call OI wall $22–25 creates asymmetric downside protection.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical beat rate 100% (4/4); historical moves smaller than current expected move implied by short-dated IV.

Directional bias: Historical outcomes and current flow bias mildly bullish/pinning rather than large directional breakouts.

Key Levels

1$15.00 gamma flip
2Max pain pins: $18 (2026-04-24); $18 (2026-05-01); $18 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Large put prints concentrated $17.5–$20 for near-dates

Builds pinning pressure and raises gamma exposure near spot.

Net premium strongly positive with call OI wall $22–25

Dealer hedging can cap upside and favor consolidation.

Unusual large vol on deep-OTM long-dated calls

Speculative flow, limited near-term impact on pinning but signals tail risk appetite.

Strategies

Pinned iron condor
Sell 2026-05-08 $18.00/$17.00 put wing and $20.00/$24.00 call wing
Credit: $1.09-$1.34
Max loss: $2.66
Max gain: $1.34
BE: 16.66 / 21.34
Trigger: Trim or roll wings if spot breaches 18–20 or put OI decays pre-print.
Best risk/reward if pin holds; defined loss vs short strangle.
Outperforms: Sell 18/17 put wing and 20/24 call wing into first weekly after print to collect premium and absorb IV crush while limiting tail risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Front-month call calendar
Sell 2026-05-08 $20.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $20.00 call
Debit: $0.19-$0.24
Max loss: $0.24
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Buy back short if big gap; close or roll back-month after crush.
Modeled front-week IV to drop ~35–45% post-print vs back-month, letting the May‑08 short decay ~$0.50–0.70 while the May‑22 long retains value; cheaper downside vs buying outright calls.
Outperforms: Sell May-08 20 call, buy May-22 20 call to monetize expected post-earnings IV drop with limited front risk.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Directional bull call spread
Buy 2026-05-15 $19.00/$22.00 call spread
Debit: $1.02-$1.25
Max loss: $1.25
Max gain: $1.75
BE: $20.25
Trigger: Take profits near 22 or cut if spot falls below 18.82.
Pays off if mild bullish pin breaks above 20 with capped loss vs outright calls.
Outperforms: Buy 19/22 May-15 call spread to express upside while reducing vega and cost.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-08 $18.00 put + sell $20.00 call
Credit: $1.62-$1.98
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.98
BE: 16.02 / 21.98
Next earnings occur before expirations; use the first post‑earnings weekly expiry to sell premium and realize IV compression.
Outperforms: Sell a high‑IV short strangle into earnings to collect rich premium and capture post‑print IV crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Sharp beat or miss could still produce outsized move despite pinning
!High IV means option prices likely to fall materially post-print (crush risk)
!Gamma flip level (~15) concentrated below spot could accelerate moves if breached

What to Watch

?Spot reaction into $18–20 range pre-earnings and whether puts roll off into expiry
?Volume/roll in $22–25 call wall and changes in near-dated put OI
?IV change in 4d and 11d expiries at print (size of crush)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.