thetaOwl
HomeOptionsSOFIReports

SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $15.98EOD only
Max Pain
$16.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.68
4.3% from close
Price Gap
+0.02
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
44
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence (8.5/10). Market is in a pinning regime (GEX +$24.5M) with bullish flow and spot trading slightly above max pain; best single strategy is premium sale inside the 1-week EM (credit iron/condor into 4/17) or a small, directional call spread if you want skew exposure. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 1-week EM rails ($15.26–$17.18) which would quickly blow through dealer pins and cause large directional gamma to accelerate moves.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP
Most important: Watch IV and order flow into the 4/17 expiration — heavy call buying and concentrated GEX at $17–$19 create a pinning force that can make premium-selling the higher-probability trade, but a gap out of the EM will invalidate it.
📌Max pain moves from $16 → $17 across front expirations; dealers have strong pinning capacity at $17
⚠️Gamma flip ~ $15 — below this level dealer hedging amplifies downside moves
🔥Front-week ATM IV 53.0% with Avg IV 73.5% — sizable premium available to sellers in 4/17

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Below ~$15 dealers flip to negative gamma; put OI concentration 71,283 (7.5% below spot) creates the flip near $15

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (TBD) / 2026-04-28 (TBD)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (7d): 7: ±$0.96 (5.9%) [$15.26 - $17.18]
  • 2026-04-24 (14d): 7: ±$1.39 (8.5%) [$14.83 - $17.60]

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV is elevated but modestly inverted into the 4/17 and 4/24 expirations (4/17 ATM 53.0%, 4/24 ATM 54.6%) with much higher mid-term IV stepping up at 21d+ (71.4% on 5/01), indicating concentrated event premium in the front but larger tail risk further out.

Crush estimate: ~20-25 vol pts drop from front-month to back-to-normal post-event is plausible (front ATM ~53% likely to fall toward the mid-30s–40s after release, given current Avg IV 73.5%), but expected move pricing (~±$0.96 for 7d) captures most immediate risk.

Skew: Calls are currently receiving the bulk of flow (large call premiums at $2.00 and $1.00 buckets and heavy $17 call flow), and puts are comparatively cheaper by flow metrics (P/C volume 0.39, P/C OI 0.56).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 recent quarters showed EPS beat as listed)

Avg move vs expected: Historical data not provided with numeric EM vs actual move table, but recent EPS surprises are positive (EPS beats each listed quarter).

Directional bias: Bias toward upside on results (series of positive EPS surprises in 2025 quarters)

Key Levels

1$15.00
2$16.00
3$17.00
4EM 1w: $15.26 - $17.18

Flow Highlights

Large premium concentrated on calls at small-dollar strikes (Call $2.00: Call $2,475,230 / Put $178 — Net $2,475,052) and heavy $17.00 call flow ($1,379,744 call vs $411,923 put — Net $967,821).

Directional upside betting and dealer exposure building into $17-$19; these flows enhance pinning pressure toward $17 and increase call-skew sensitivity to positive news.

Top OI clusters: $19C OI=91,141; $22C OI=89,008; $15P OI=71,283; $16P OI=57,591.

Significant call walls above spot ($18–$22) create resistance and dealer hedging demand; concentrated put OI around $15–$16 creates a structural support / gamma flip zone near $15.

Strategies

Short iron (balanced earnings iron-condor) — front-week 4/17
Sell 17/18 call spread and sell 15/14 put spread (4/17 expiration).
Credit: $0.16-$0.20
Max loss: $0.84
Max gain: $0.18
BE: Downside: 14.82 / Upside: 17.18
Trigger: Enter 1-3 days before earnings while IV remains elevated and premium for 4/17 is rich relative to 4/24.
High pinning (GEX concentrated at 17/17.5/19) + bullish call flow make premium selling inside the 1-week EM the higher-probability, asymmetric trade; estimated credit ~ $0.16–$0.20 using midpoints from the chain (17C ~ $0.175, 18C ~ $0.065; 15P ~ $0.115, 14P ~ $0.045).
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 1-week EM rails ($15.26–$17.18); dealer pinning (GEX +$24.5M) helps keep price between strikes.
Underperforms: Guidance or shock news causes a gap beyond EM (move >±6%) and pushes through the sold wings.
Long straddle (front-week 4/17 ATM)
Buy 16.00 straddle (buy 16C + 16P) exp 4/17.
Debit: $0.95-$0.99
Max loss: $0.98
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Lower: ~15.27 / Upper: ~17.18
Trigger: Enter 1 day before earnings if IV does not run up and you expect a directional/guidance surprise exceeding the EM (~±6%).
Front-week straddle mid-cost ~ $0.96 (16C ~ $0.60 + 16P ~ $0.36). Given history of consistent EPS beats, the straddle pays if the market reacts more strongly than EM or guidance surprises.
Outperforms: Actual move > 1-week EM (|move| roughly > $0.96) and IV increase or sustained high IV through release.
Underperforms: Stock pins inside $15.26–$17.18 and front IV collapses immediately after release.
Bull call spread (directional, limited-risk) — 4/17
Buy 16.50C / Sell 18.00C (4/17 expiration).
Debit: $0.25-$0.30
Max loss: $0.30
Max gain: $1.25
BE: $16.77
Trigger: Enter on conviction of an upside beat or if call IV cools modestly and you can buy the spread for < $0.30.
Lower capital outlay than a straddle and takes advantage of heavy call demand and call wall/higher strikes; mid-prices imply a low-cost bullish skew play with defined risk.
Outperforms: Stock gaps or rallies above ~16.8 into the upper EM or beyond (benefits from existing call demand at $17–$19 without full straddle cost).
Underperforms: Stock stays flat or falls; big IV crush reduces upside realized gains versus model.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: A guidance-driven gap could exceed the 1-week EM of ±$0.96 (5.9%) and immediately defeat short premium structures.
!IV crush / realized IV: Front-week IV (ATM ~53.0%) could fall sharply on a muted print; long debit trades depend on the move exceeding both the premium paid and the post-release IV drop.
!Liquidity: Chain shows high OI and volume at $16–$19 strikes (e.g., $19C OI 91,141; $16P OI 57,591) — good liquidity in front strikes but wider spreads on some strikes (thin out beyond $20).
!Sizing: Given pinning and concentrated GEX, size short premium trades cautiously — a 1–2% allocation per trade is reasonable for defined-risk spreads; avoid oversized naked directional after-hours exposure.
!Dealer dynamics: GEX +$24.5M and DEX +111.7M shares mean dealers will hedge heavily; if price approaches gamma flip (~$15) short-dated positions can rapidly accelerate moves beyond that level.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/17 (is front IV ticking higher or falling?)
?Unusual call flow into $17–$19 and any heavy block trades (could increase pinning pressure)
?Pre-earnings change in max pain (current short-term MPs: $16 on 4/10 → $17 on 4/17)
?Any headline/guidance leak in the 24 hours before release
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.