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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $136.00EOD only

Max Pain

$138.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.36

3.9% from close

Price Gap

+2.00

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.99

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias for PLTR over next 1-2 weeks, supported by dealer short gamma positioning and pull to max pain at $138. Spot below MP and negative GEX suggest potential upward acceleration. Resistance at $138-140 and gamma flip at $120 are downside risks.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 5.8% from MP; +1 VIX 18

Supports: Negative dealer gamma (GEX -$70M); spot below max pain; low VIX.
Conflicts: Mixed flow; resistance at $138; gamma flip at $120.

📈Dealer short gamma amplifies upside: GEX -$70M.

🎯Max pain at $138 pulls spot higher; resistance at $138-140.

⚠️Gamma flip at $120: key downside risk if broken.

📊IV elevated vs VIX; high implied move.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs VIX (18) and historical range; implies large expected move.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative GEX $70M, gamma flip at ~$120; dealers short gamma amplify moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net premium mixed; put/call ratio not decisively skewed.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain ($138), exerting upward pull.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming weekly expiration on 2026-05-15 with max pain at $138; short-dated gamma dynamics drive near-term moves.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$125.58$134.52

Upside to test resistance $134.52; supported by negative dealer gamma.

Next 1 week

$121.38$138.73

Expected continuation toward $138 max pain; above $121 support.

Next 2 weeks

$119.18$140.93

Potential to reach $140.93 upper bound; but risk of gamma flip if spot breaks $120.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $138 (2026-05-15); $137 (2026-05-22); $137 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $125.58/$134.52; 1w $121.38/$138.73

Support: $130.00 · $125.00 · $120.00

Resistance: $138.00 · $140.00 · $140.93

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,053 (7.7% below spot)

Structural: Support $130, $125, $120; Resistance $138, $140, $140.93. Gamma flip at ~$120. Max pain $138 (05/15), $137 (05/22), $137 (05/29).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-70.0M

DEX: +94.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,053 (7.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$70M (dealer short gamma); DEX +94.3M shares. Negative gamma amplifies directional moves; flip at ~$120.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated relative to VIX (18), reflecting event risk from upcoming expiration.

Term structure: Term structure likely in contango near term due to event premium decay after expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling puts below support for premium decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative $16.96M net premium; put volume ratio 0.64 but put premium dominant; OI ratio near parity.

Directional prints: 49 call 129 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol 4106 vs OI 102 (40.2x); likely bought, bullish flow. 49.1 call 132 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 11466 vs OI 336 (34.1x); likely bought, aggressive call buying.

Unusual: 48.8 call 131 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 12279 vs OI 147 (83.5x); extreme vol/OI, likely bought, strong bullish signal. 51 put 123 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 18108 vs OI 1131 (16x); high put volume, possibly hedging or bearish bets. 51.8 call 131 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 2047 vs OI 140 (14.6x); notable call buying for next week.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$120 could trigger sharp downside if spot breaks support.

!Resistance at $138-140 may cap upside.

!Mixed flow indicates lack of conviction; reversal possible.

!Event-specific thesis: post-expiry decay may reduce bullish pressure.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $131.00/$141.00 call spread Why now: Dealer short gamma and unusual call flow support upward move.	Time decay if sideways; resistance caps upside.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $139.00 call Why now: Low put premium and negative GEX favor upside acceleration.	High break-even; time decay if move delayed.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $122.00/$115.00 put spread Why now: Put premium elevated; support at $125 holds over next 2 weeks.	Downside risk if support breaks sharply.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $131.00/$141.00 call spread

Buy $131/$141 call spread to capture upside with limited cost.

Why this play: Best aligns with bullish bias, short gamma, and unusual call flow. Defined risk targets resistance.

Debit: $2.70-$3.29

Max loss: $3.29

BE: $134.29

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $130 or near $140 resistance.

Traders seeking defined risk with bullish view.

Long Call

Buy 2026-05-29 $139.00 call

Buy $139 call to profit from acceleration above resistance.

Why this play: Captures unlimited upside if breakout occurs. Higher risk but mirrors bullish thesis.

Debit: $2.27-$2.78

Max loss: $2.78

BE: $141.78

Mgmt: Set stop at $130; take profits above $140.

Aggressive traders with strong conviction.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $122.00/$115.00 put spread

Sell $122/$115 put spread to collect premium with lower volatility.

Why this play: Less aligned with bullish thesis; offers premium if support holds but caps downside gains.

Credit: $1.15-$1.40

Max loss: $5.60

BE: $120.60

Mgmt: Close if spot nears $125; watch gamma flip risk.

Neutral-to-bullish traders wanting income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $130 for 1 day → THEN enter bull call spread: buy $131/$141 call spread

IFIF spot breaks above $140 with volume → THEN enter long call: buy $139 call

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot drops below $130 → THEN exit long call and bull call spread

EXITIF spot reaches $140 → THEN take partial profits on long call

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias next 1-2 weeks on short gamma and near max pain $138. Key support $130, resistance $138-140. Favor bull call spread for defined risk; long call for breakout. Manage risk if $130 breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.