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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $145.97EOD only

Max Pain

$142.00

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.22

4.3% from close

Price Gap

-3.97

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.05

Balanced positioning

Consensus

5.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 21, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias: strong dealer long-gamma and net-buy flow are pinning price toward $140–$143 in the near-term while spot sits above MP; expect continued upside pressure inside the given ranges with downside capped by concentrated put pain and dealer hedging until gamma flip (~$120).

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX pinning; -1 spot distance; +0.5 VIX 19

Supports: Large dealer long-gamma (+$116.8M), concentrated put max-pain at $140–$143, bullish net flow and positive short-term ranges
Conflicts: Spot ~6.7% above MP (pullback risk), gamma flip far below (~$120)

📌Dealer gex +$116.8M and put pain $140–$143 => near-term pinning

⚠️Spot 6.7% above MP; sharp mean reversion possible if flow fades

🔁Front-week expiries (4/24) concentrate pain and create term-structure kink

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV vs history and VIX ~19 — front-dated IV elevated relative to mids

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: dealers long gamma net, strong pin risk toward concentrated put strikes ($140–$143)

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish: net premium flow supportive of upside and dealer hedging buys

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above market pin (MP) by ~6.7% — pins below spot increase downside magnet if flows reverse

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Concentration of short-dated put OI and dealer gex create near-term pinning through upcoming expiries

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$147.74$157.50

Trading inside 2d guardrails $147.74–$157.50 with pin risk to $143

Next 1 week

$142.72$162.52

Support at $142.72 and max-pain $143 may cap downside; upside to $162.52 if flow persists

Next 2 weeks

$134.22$171.02

Wider range; sustained flow could extend toward $171 if gamma remains supportive

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $143 (2026-04-24); $140 (2026-05-01); $140 (2026-05-08)

EM guardrails: 2d $147.74/$157.50; 1w $142.72/$162.52

Support: $143.00 · $134.22

Resistance: $155.00 · $171.02

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,601 (21.4% below spot)

Structural: 2d: $147.74/$157.50; 1w: $142.72/$162.52; max-pain pins $143 (4/24), $140 (5/1 & 5/8); gamma flip ≈ $120

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+116.8M

DEX: +93.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,601 (21.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer gex +$116.8M, dex +93.2M shares; dealers long-gamma and likely hedging into expiries until flip near ~$120

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich versus VIX (~19); front-dated IV elevated relative to longer-dated levels, reflecting concentrated short-dated risk

Term structure: Front-week kink around 2026-04-24 with elevated near-term IV; term-structure flattens beyond front expiries

Skew: Put-heavy skew with concentrated OI below spot; vol opportunity: short front-dated relative premium vs longer-dated as mean reversion candidate

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Large positive net premium (~$13.4M); roughly 80% from call flow vs ~20% from puts — net call bias. Short-dated put activity is notable but smaller in premium and appears more like hedging or selective speculative buys, not enough to overturn call dominance.

Directional prints: 71.2 call 152.5 ITM 2026-05-08 — 4.9k vol vs OI 583 (vol/oi 8.3). Aggressive call buys or call spreads — bullish exposure. 50.1 call 157.5 OTM 2026-05-01 — 4.4k vol vs OI 1.24k (vol/oi 3.6). Sizeable call flow reinforcing upside positioning or roll into early-May. 45.1 put 149 OTM 2026-04-24 — 6.4k vol vs OI 283 (vol/oi 22.5). Large short-dated put buys — could be protective hedges or directional short bets; notable new positioning.

Unusual: 44.2 put 152.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — 7.2k vol vs OI 353 (vol/oi 20.5) — extreme short-dated put sweep, signals urgent hedging or speculative put buying. 120.3 put 65 OTM 2026-05-15 — 1.7k vol vs OI 130 (vol/oi 12.9) — long-dated put interest; likely tail-protection or leveraged directional exposure without moneyness confirmed.

Risks & Catalysts

!Rapid flow reversal reducing dealer hedging and enabling gap down

!Earnings or company-specific news that widens IV and breaks pin

!Gamma flip (~$120) far below spot could accelerate downside if tested

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-08 $143.00/$138.00 put spread Why now: Call-dominant flow and dealer long-gamma cap downside near 140–143; defined-risk put sale collects premium while benefiting from pinning.	Earnings/flow reversal or gap down past ~120 (gamma flip) can accelerate losses
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 $152.50/$162.50 call spread Why now: Aggressive call buys and net call premium indicate upside; use debit spread to participate with lower cost and capped risk.	IV pop on earnings may widen spread cost; strong gap down can still incur full debit loss
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-18 $150.00 cash-secured put Why now: Market pinning reduces immediate downside; selling a 150 put for later expiry funds position and leverages call-dominant flow.	Earnings or flow reversal could gap below strikes forcing assignment or larger mark-to-market losses.

Top Plays

Sell May8 $143/$138 put spread

Sell 2026-05-08 $143.00/$138.00 put spread

Defined-risk short put spread expresses near-term bullish pinning while limiting downside to spread width.

Why this play: Best risk/reward vs short-term pin at $140–$143; collects premium from call-dominant flow and benefits from dealer hedging.

Credit: $1.33-$1.62

Max loss: $3.38

BE: $141.38

Mgmt: Trim or close if spot breaches $143 decisively or if flow reverses; take max gain if spread value falls near zero before expiry.

Traders wanting short-term income with defined risk into earnings.

Buy May15 $152.5/$162.5 call spread

Buy 2026-05-15 $152.50/$162.50 call spread

Bull call spread captures upside beyond current pin range with lower cost than naked calls.

Why this play: Direct upside play that follows aggressive call buys with limited debit and capped loss.

Debit: $3.78-$4.62

Max loss: $4.62

BE: $157.12

Mgmt: Roll or take profit if spread hits target value; exit if price fails to appreciate and IV spikes ahead of earnings.

Directional bulls seeking leveraged upside ahead of and through earnings.

Sell Jun18 $150 cash-secured put

Sell 2026-06-18 $150.00 cash-secured put

Longer-dated put sale capitalizes on sustained call-dominant flow and potential pinning, funding position or stock entry.

Why this play: Collects large premium and monetizes pin bias for longer-dated income but has substantial assignment risk.

Credit: $10.42-$12.73

Max loss: $137.27

BE: $137.27

Mgmt: Monitor for gamma flip signs; reduce size or buy protection if spot trends toward $120 or large flow reversals occur.

Capital-ready investors comfortable owning PLTR at $150.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot between 140–143 and put spread mid within entry_range (1.33–1.62) → THEN sell 2026-05-08 143/138 put spread sized to max_loss; collect premium; target full decay or close if value ~0

IFIF bullish flow continues and directional upside desired before earnings → THEN buy 2026-05-15 152.5/162.5 call spread within entry_range (3.78–4.62); set profit target or stop at max_loss

IFIF willing to hold through June as cash-secured yield leg → THEN sell 2026-06-18 150 cash-secured put (size separate from May spread); collect premium and reserve collateral

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot decisively breaches 143 lower OR order flow reverses/IV +20% vs open → THEN (1) trim or buy back some/all of the 2026-05-08 143/138 short put spread (scale down to 50% size if partial); (2) reduce 2026-06-18 150 cash-secured put position by 50%; (3) buy explicit protection: purchase 1x 2026-05-08 144 call per short put spread (or equivalent 1:1 May15 152.5/162.5 call spread) to cap assignment/delta risk; (4) if closing, roll short put spread down-and-out to 2026-06-18 138/133 for net debit ≤ current premium paid plus predetermined slippage cap

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot trends toward gamma_flip ~120 OR large dealer-hedge unwind begins → THEN exit or materially hedge all short-put exposure: buy back spreads and/or buy calls (2026-05-08 144C or 1:1 May15 call spreads) to eliminate net short delta and limit assignment risk

Tactical Summary

Primary plan: defined-risk May08 143/138 short put spread as income, May15 152.5/162.5 call spread for directional upside, plus a separate Jun18 150 cash-secured put as reserve yield. Invalidate short-put bias below 143; on breach/IV spike trim May spread to 50%, cut Jun18 put size 50%, and buy 2026-05-08 144 calls (1:1) as explicit protection; if market accelerates to ~120, exit or fully hedge shorts.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.