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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $146.39EOD only

Max Pain

$139.00

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.60

5.2% from close

Price Gap

-7.39

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.98

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 17, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 17, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish short-term with downside pressure toward the gamma flip near $120 but larger-term directional edge to the upside toward the cluster at $140–$155 limited by large call OI; Confidence: 6.0/10.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5; +2 from aligned GEX/flow (GEX negative, net premium negative) supporting trending bias; -1 because spot is 12.3% below short-term max pain and large call walls create counter-magnet.

Supports: GEX total -$40.3M (trending negative), Net Premium -$118.8M (selling pressure), concentrated call OI walls at $140-$155 (structural caps + targets).
Conflicts: IV term bump 67.2% at 28d (raises cost of buying premium), 7–14d ATM IV ~56% (cheaper short-dated premium), P/C OI ~1.04 (put interest intact).

📉Negative GEX -$40.3M — dealers will hedge directionally, increasing trend follow-through

🎯Gamma flip near $120 = behavioral pivot; a sustained break triggers dealer buying (puts unwind) or accelerant selling

🧱Large call OI wall $140–$155 likely to cap upside and acts as a target if momentum reverses

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV environment (Avg IV 67.2%) — expensive for long option exposure beyond the near-term; 7–14d IV ~56% is relatively cheaper for tactical trades.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma: Trending with total GEX -$40.3M and flip ~ $120 — negative gamma favors momentum; dealers add directional hedges as spot moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow: Mixed but net premium negative (-$118.8M) and P/C vol 0.63 showing more call buying economically; overall institutional flow leans bearish/trending short gamma.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $128.06 is below nearest max pain ($146 → $140) and ~12.3% below multi-week MP trend; creates asymmetry where upside is capped by call walls while downside meets gamma flip near $120.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX and net premium persist across expirations, MP trend falling over multiple expiries and gamma flip at $120 supported by substantial put OI; expect 2–4 week directional continuation, so prefer 30–45 DTE for core, weeklies for overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$119.93$136.18

Break below gamma flip ~$120 would accelerate downside; hold above $135 keeps range intact.

Next 2 weeks

$116.63$139.48

Sustained selling and negative GEX push toward $120; failure to break signals mean reversion to $136 area (EM upper bound).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $146 (2026-04-10); $140 (2026-04-17); $145 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 1w $119.93/$136.18

Support: $120.00 · $116.63 · $110.00

Resistance: $135.00 · $140.00 · $150.00

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,845 (6.3% below spot)

Structural: Structural: heavy call OI wall $140–$155 will cap rallies and attract gamma selling; put floor $100–$120 provides distant support for larger hedged longs.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-40.3M

DEX: +88.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,845 (6.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term negative gamma concentrated below spot; dealers short gamma — if spot drops 2% (~$125.50) dealers will buy stock to hedge puts which can mechanically reduce selling but add later unwind risk; if spot rises 2% (~$130.62) dealers will sell stock to hedge calls, increasing cap pressure near $135–$140.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 67.2% — rich vs broad market norms; near-term 7–14d IV ~56% is cheaper than 28d+ (67%).

Term structure: Term shows a 28–35d IV spike (67.2% on 5/08 and 66.3% on 5/15) — likely event/roll pricing with higher mid-term vol; front 7–21d IV sits ~56% (sale/tactical window).

Skew: Notable: 7–14d ATM ~56% vs 28d+ ~67% = ~11 vol-pt differential; calendar/diagonal where you SELL the higher-IV leg (28–35d) is favorable per rule: sell 5/08 IV 67.2 buy 4/17 IV 56.0 → +11.2pt edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$118.8M (institutional net buying of calls / sellers receiving negative premium flows implies directional buying pressure).

Directional prints: 59.3 call 125 ITM 2026-04-17 — Large volume 10,185 vs OI 1,030 — aggressive call buys or spreads into 4/17; could be directional long or call-rotate; consistent with short-dated call demand. 56.8 call 130 OTM 2026-04-17 — Massive vol 51,081 OI 5,883 — heavy buy-side/rolls into 4/17 calls; aligns with net call premium in top flow list.

Unusual: 59.4 call 125 ITM 2026-04-24 — PLTR260424C125 large vol 4,062 vs OI 177 (22.9x) — repeated activity in 125 strikes across expiries suggests intentional directional exposure or calendar structuring.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below gamma flip ~$120 causes accelerated selling and dealer re-hedging (invalidates short-up trades).

!Mid-term IV spike (67.2% at 5/08) can make rolling expensive and inflates cost of buying protection; vol could repricing on earnings 2026-05-04.

!Large concentrated call OI at $140–$155 invites squeeze but also heavy dealer hedging that can cap rallies and produce whipsaws.

!Macro equity selloff (external) would amplify trend and blow through put floor $100–$120.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $128.06	Gamma negative regime can make owning shares choppy; requires conviction to hold through IV spikes.
Short stock	Moderate	Short shares around $135 resistance	Short squeeze risk into $140–$155 call wall; dealers selling into rallies increases slippage.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-08 $140 call (sell higher-IV mid-term)	Call OI cap plus assignment if rally; IV mid-term elevated reduces premium efficiency.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-22 $120 cash-secured put or sell $120/$110 put spread 2026-05-22	Gamma flip near $120 — short puts need active management if price approaches flip.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-08 $140 call (high IV) only as directional punt	Mid-term IV elevated (67.2%) makes long calls expensive; premium decay and vol crush risk post-earnings.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-08 $130/$120 bear put spread	Costly due to elevated mid-term IV but aligns with negative GEX trend; max loss limited to debit paid.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-04-24 125/120 put x 145/150 call condor	High IV mid-term reduces credit and increases assignment risk; trending negative GEX may break wings.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell near-term 2026-04-17 $130 call (IV 56.8) buy 2026-05-08 $130 call (IV 67.2) — reverse per rule: SELL higher-IV leg so actually SELL 5/08 130 buy 4/17 130 (sell higher-IV)	Requires correct identification of higher-IV leg; term skew favorable but needs management on directional moves.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-07-17 $155 call (long-dated) as yield overlay	Call OI wall at $155 may cap; long capital at risk and mid-term IV variability can make rolling costly.

Top Plays

30–45d Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-05-08 $130/$120 bear put spread

Works with negative GEX trending and captures expected move to gamma flip; defined-risk way to express downside with mid-term IV elevated (you get delta and vega exposure).

Debit: N/A

Max loss: $1000.00

BE: $129.00

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit if spread hits 60% of max theoretical; cut at 30% of debit or close if spot > $135 for two sessions.

Traders wanting directional exposure with defined risk.

Sell 30–45d Cash-Secured Put or Put Spread

Sell 2026-05-22 $120 cash-secured put or sell $120/$110 put spread 2026-05-22

Collects premium where gamma flip ~$120 provides structural support; lower capital with the spread reduces assignment risk if flip fails.

Credit: $0.75-$1.75

Max loss: $900.00

BE: $119.25

Mgmt: Buy back at 50–70% of max profit or if spot < $122 for two sessions (move toward flip).

Income-focused traders comfortable owning at $120 or defined-risk sellers.

Mid-term Vol Arbitrage Calendar/Diagonal

Sell 2026-05-08 $130 call (higher IV 67.2) buy 2026-04-17 $130 call (IV 56.8) — sell higher-IV leg per rule

Exploits ~10–11 vol-pt mid-term IV spike; benefits from time decay and neutral-to-bearish drift while keeping defined risk with single-strike structure.

Credit: $1.00-$3.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close or roll if front-month IV rises >6 vols or spot moves outside $120–$140; take 60% of max credit.

Vol arbitrageurs and traders who can manage leg risk and assignment windows.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $125 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-22 $120/$110 put spread

IFIf spot rallies to $135 and IV(5/08) >65% → Sell 2026-04-24 125/120 put spread as short-term overlay

IFIf unusual activity repeats at 125 strikes across expiries (vol spike >4x OI) → Initiate diagonal: sell 2026-04-24 $125 call buy 2026-05-08 $125 call as vol arbitrage

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot > $140 for two sessions or trades above 145 → Exit short premium (sold calls/condors) — call wall target met

EXITIf VIX-equivalent or PLTR ATM IV >80% → Close or widen short premium positions; avoid adding short premium

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: trending negative gamma with net call buying gives a multi-week downside edge toward the $120 gamma flip; invalidate if price sustains above $140 for two sessions. Regime favors defined-risk bearish structures (bear put spreads, cash-secured puts at $120) and mid-term calendar/diagonal vol arbitrage; top plays: 1) 5/08 $130/$120 bear put spread (30–45d), 2) 5/22 $120/$110 put spread or cash-secured put (30+ DTE), 3) calendar/diagonal exploiting 11pt IV differential at $130.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.