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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $145.89EOD only

Max Pain

$140.00

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.62

4.5% from close

Price Gap

-5.89

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.07

Balanced positioning

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 20, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mildly bearish-to-neutral near-term: dealer pinning around $140–$142 is currently stabilizing price and encouraging rangebound action, but that stability is fragile — a sustained market risk-off or rapid dealer gamma erosion would trigger a sharper downside toward the gamma flip (~$120).

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Pinning supported by positive dealer GEX and concentrated short-dated OI; offset by elevated IV and mixed flow that limit directional conviction.

Supports: Concentrated short-dated OI and positive dealer GEX around $140–$142; tight front-month max-pain cluster.
Conflicts: Elevated IV and scattered buying increase likelihood of repricing; gamma flip far below spot creates asymmetric downside risk.

📌Max-pain cluster at $140–$142 acting as a stabilizing magnet

⚠️Stability is fragile — broad risk-off or sustained flows can trigger flip toward ~$120

⚖️Positive dealer GEX favors pinning/rangebound action near-dated expiries

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs typical; front-month premia are rich reflecting event risk and hedging demand.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: concentrated short-dated OI and net positive dealer GEX create stabilization near $140–$142; gamma flip remains much lower (~$120), so downside becomes asymmetric if dealers must hedge through flip.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed premium flow: pockets of buy and sell with net dealer deltas long — supports pin while flows remain balanced; heavy selling or spikes in volatility would erode pin quickly.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot sits near but slightly above max-pain; that proximity encourages short-term pinning but also means small directional pushes can shift dealer hedging behavior.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Concentrated short-dated OI and near-term expiries drive a temporary pinning regime rather than a multi-week structural trend.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$139.75$152.20

Expect narrow trade concentrated ~139.5–143.5 with pull toward $140–$142 unless a shock widens volatility.

Next 1 week

$135.52$156.42

If broad market softens, downside toward $135–$138 probable; otherwise remains capped near $150 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$127.95$164.00

If pin breaks or IV reprices, higher probability of move toward $120–$130 (gamma flip zone).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $142 (2026-04-24); $140 (2026-05-01); $140 (2026-05-08)

EM guardrails: 2d $139.75/$152.20; 1w $135.52/$156.42

Support: $142.00 · $127.95

Resistance: $150.00 · $155.00 · $164.00

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,301 (17.8% below spot)

Structural: Near-term magnet $140–$142 (max-pain); intraday support band ~139.5–138; 1w support 135; resistance cluster 150/155; gamma flip ~120.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+67.7M

DEX: +87.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,301 (17.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net dealer GEX positive (~+$67.7M) and dealer delta net long supporting pin; concentrated put OI below spot keeps flip risk at ~120 — dealers likely to maintain hedges until sustained directional flow forces gamma unwind.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich versus VIX (~19.5); front-month options carry elevated hedging premium, making selling attractive only if confidence in pin holds.

Term structure: Front-months are richest with kinks at near-dated expiries (max-pain); IV declines into longer expiries but remains above historical averages.

Skew: Steep put skew below spot; actionable: short-dated defined-risk credit (e.g., bear-put spread or call spread) to collect rich front-month premium while limiting exposure to a pin-break.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium is net negative (clients net received premium, dealers net sold premium) based on aggregate premium flows; this aligns with heavier call trade flow (P/C vol 0.55) while OI remains slightly put-heavy (P/C OI 1.05), implying clients bought calls or sold puts and dealers are short premium/short gamma.

Directional prints: 50.7 call 157.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — Very large intraday call print (15,882 vol, OI 3,458). Likely client buying calls or dealer selling gamma; reads as short-gamma dealer exposure supporting near-term upside pressure. 50.4 put 147 ITM 2026-04-24 — Heavy same-day put flow (7,425 vol, OI 475, vol/OI 15.6). Likely directional put buying or hedged structures; signals short-term downside protection demand. 51.4 call 148 OTM 2026-05-01 — Significant front-month call interest (5,249 vol, OI 1,242). Read as bullish call accumulation or spreads; reinforces near-term call skew.

Unusual: 59.3 put 87.5 OTM 2027-01-15 — Very large long-dated put block (6,094 vol, OI 406, vol/OI 15.0). Suggests tail hedging or bearish/structured positioning. 57 put 140 OTM 2026-05-29 — Multi-day notable mid-dated put flow (1,179 vol, OI 119). Adds to defensive skew in months ahead. 55.2 call 185 OTM 2026-10-16 — Unusual farther-dated call interest (1,812 vol, OI 478). Could be directional bull exposure or call spread leg.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broad market sell-off that overwhelms dealer hedges and breaks the pin toward ~120

!Sudden company-specific news or earnings surprise causing IV spike and rapid repricing

!Concentrated flow shifting from selling to buying premium that forces dealer gamma unwind

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-18 $150.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $155.00 call Why now: Flow shows dealers short calls/short-gamma and price pinned ~140–142; a call calendar at 150 sells rich nearer-term vol while owning longer dated convexity to limit large upside risk.	Earnings/spot shock or IV spike can widen short-leg losses before calendar rolls or hedges.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-08 $137.00/$120.00 put spread Why now: Mildly bearish-to-neutral near-term with dealer short-gamma; sell defined-risk puts to collect premium while capping downside	Broad market sell-off forcing pin break to ~120
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-15 $140.00/$125.00 put wing and $150.00/$160.00 call wing Why now: Dealer selling premium and pinning encourages range trade; defined wings limit tail risk	IV spike from earnings/news widening wings losses
Call diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-08 $150.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $160.00 call Why now: Front-month IV rich vs back-month; aligns with heavy call flow and dealer short-gamma	Post-earnings IV spike in front month reprices the short leg

Top Plays

Short iron condor (140/125 put, 150/160 call)

Sell 2026-05-15 $140.00/$125.00 put wing and $150.00/$160.00 call wing

Sell balanced wings around 140–150 to monetize rangebound action and dealer short-gamma; limited risk if a move occurs beyond wings.

Why this play: Best expresses current dealer-driven pin/rangebound bias and collects rich front-month premium while defining tail risk.

Credit: $6.98-$8.53

Max loss: $6.47

BE: 131.47 / 158.53

Mgmt: Enter near quoted credit, tighten or buy back if price breaches a wing by ~1–2% or IV spikes; roll wings outward if needed.

Traders wanting defined-risk, income-oriented plays around earnings window.

Call diagonal (sell 6/18 $150, buy 7/17 $155)

Sell 2026-06-18 $150.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $155.00 call

Short front-month call, long longer-dated call to collect premium and retain upside participation with capped cost.

Why this play: Hedges dealer short-gamma flow by selling nearer-term rich vol while owning longer convexity to limit upside gap risk.

Debit: $0.27-$0.33

Max loss: $0.33

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Target entry in range, cut if price sustains above 150–152 or dealer flow flips; consider rolling long further OTM on stress.

Traders okay with variable gain who want asymmetric upside protection vs theta collection.

Put credit spread (sell 5/08 137/120)

Sell 2026-05-08 $137.00/$120.00 put spread

Defined-risk bearish/neutral trade that benefits if pin holds above short put.

Why this play: Collects premium consistent with mildly bearish-to-neutral view while capping downside risk.

Credit: $3.36-$4.11

Max loss: $12.89

BE: $132.89

Mgmt: Manage by buying back if price nears short put (~137) or broad market sell-off threatens gamma flip.

Traders preferring simple defined-risk premium sells.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF PLTR trades between 138–150 with pinning ~140–142 and front-month IV stable → THEN enter iron condor: Sell 2026-05-15 140/125 put wing and 150/160 call wing for net credit 6.98–8.53; limit order at mid+10% spread; set hard max loss = 6.47 (per spread)

IFIF PLTR <150 but holds above 142 and you prefer asymmetric upside → THEN enter call diagonal: Sell 2026-06-18 150 call / Buy 2026-07-17 155 call for net debit 0.27–0.33; limit order at mid-5% spread; hard max loss = debit paid

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF underlying mark breaches a wing by >=1.5% (use midpoint of NBBO) OR front-month IV rises >=25% vs trade-entry IV → THEN adjust by closing 50% of width on the affected side (marketable limit at mid+1% for fills) and: if breached put wing, buy back sold put wing and replace with sell of same expiry 10 delta lower OR roll long diagonal call forward by one monthly expiry and +2.5–5 strikes OTM on a limit-to-market (limit=entry+20%); if IV spike >=25% buy-to-close entire credit spread at market to cut tail risk

Exit Triggers

EXITIF persistent directional break toward gamma-flip: underlying mid <=127.95 OR trend close below 120 on daily chart OR realized IV 3-day avg > front-month IV by 30% → THEN exit: close credit spreads fully (market on open or marketable limit at mid+2% until filled) and close diagonals when unrealized loss >=40% of max_loss or PL <= -50% of account risk allocation; alternatively roll/convert only if liquidity allows within 24h using limit orders

Tactical Summary

Mildly bearish-to-neutral near-term; prefer defined-risk range trades around 140–142 pin; use strict size, IV thresholds and partial exits to limit gamma-flip and event risk before 2026-05-04.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.